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State polling misses in presidential elections with Trump Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2020 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 Iowa Result Poll avg. State polling misses in presidential elections Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2012 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 S.C. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. Past polling misses in presidential elections for battleground states Years in bold indicate those in which the polling leader lost in that state. D+15 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 R+15 Note: Averages not available for some states in some years.

Persons: it’s, Donald J, Hillary Clinton, Joseph R, Biden, pollsters, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Trump, Mr, Clinton, Obama, Mitt Romney, John McCain, George W, Bush, John Kerry, Al Gore, ”, Chris Jackson, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, “, Berwood Yost, we’ve Organizations: Republican, Mr, Trump Polls, Ohio Texas, Iowa Ohio, Electoral, N.H . Iowa Nev, Nev . Ohio N.M, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa Wis, ., . Ohio Mo, Democratic, Ipsos, Biden, Pew Research, Wisconsin Polling, Michigan Polling, Nevada Polling, Carolina Polling, Arizona Polling, Georgia Polling, Franklin & Marshall, Poll of Pennsylvania Locations: Ohio Texas Fla, N.C ., Ariz . Wis, Pa, Nev . Mich . Wisconsin, N.C, Ariz . Fla, Wis, Pa . Mich, N.H, Minn, Nev, Colo, Fla . Ohio Va, N.H . Iowa, Mich, South Carolina, Mont, Mo, Ind, Indiana, Fla, Nev . Ohio, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa, Ore, Hawaii, . Ohio, N.H . Fla, Iowa Minn, Wash, Ill, Florida, pollsters, State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Carolina, Arizona, Georgia

☆ The biggest change in the polls since Biden’s exit: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

In July’s NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania, Biden’s popularity was well underwater among likely voters, with 39% viewing him favorably and 59% viewing him unfavorably (-20 net rating). By comparison, 45% had a favorable view of former President Donald Trump, while 52% had an unfavorable view (-7 net rating). Half of likely voters view Harris favorable and 48% view her unfavorably (+2 net rating) in Pennsylvania. As for Trump, his rating in Pennsylvania is now at 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (-3 net rating). When the three battleground state polls are combined, 46% of likely voters hold a favorable view of him, while 53% hold an unfavorable one (-7 net rating).

Persons: Mark Murray, Kamala Harris, Adam Wollner, Vaughn Hillyard, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Harris, Joe Biden, That’s, Biden, Trump, it’s, Vaughn Hillyard Elon Musk, Musk, Mayra Flores, Ron DeSantis, ” Trump, ”, —, DeSantis Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Elon, New York Times, Siena College, NYT, Democratic, Getty, Twitter, U.S . Capitol, Republican, Trump Locations: Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Siena, Harris, Pennsylvania, In Pennsylvania, Trump’s, Texas

“I think it’s going to be significant,” Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona Republican pollster, said of the third-party impact on key Senate races. Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian National Committee, said it’s not her party's job to protect Republican candidates who are alienating voters. "If Republicans fear that Libertarians are going to be spoilers, Republicans need to run more liberty-minded candidates," McArdle told NBC News. Much attention has been paid to the level of support third-party candidates can wrestle from the major party contenders in recent election cycles, particularly on the presidential level. "We have to wait to see the melt on these third-party candidates," he said.

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