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In 2024, the polls conducted in the last two weeks understated his support by 2.4 points on average. First, it’s possible that the polls — once again — failed to capture enough new voters or voters who changed their votes from backing Biden in 2020 to backing Trump in 2024. This is a statistical correction that pollster used this cycle to address the previous undercount of Trump voters. Properly understood, pre-election polls can play an important role in democracy by providing a sense of what outcomes seem possible. Instead, we should consider how we can use pre-election polls in ways that convey the electoral possibilities at play and better describe the uncertainties involved.
Persons: America’s, can’t, Donald Trump, pollsters, , , pollsters ’, Wisconsin —, Trump, Biden, Nate Silver, It’s Organizations: NBC, Trump, Democratic, Biden, Trump voters, Gallup, Pew Research, American Association of Public Locations: , New York, Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina , Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan , Nevada , Pennsylvania,
In today's edition, our reporters go through President Joe Biden's pardon of his son — and the part that's particularly rankling fellow Democrats. Some Democrats bristle at Biden's pardon justificationBy Carol E. Lee, Sarah Fitzpatrick, Gary Grumbach and Dareh GregorianIt’s not just that President Joe Biden pardoned his son Hunter. The pardon comes after Biden repeatedly said he would not use his executive authority to pardon his son or commute his son’s sentence. “Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years? : White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre defended Biden’s decision to pardon his son, despite telling the press multiple times that the president had no such plans.
Persons: Joe Biden's, , Mark Murray, Carol E, Lee, Sarah Fitzpatrick, Gary Grumbach, Joe Biden, Hunter, It’s, , Hunter Biden, , Biden, Greg Stanton, Donald Trump, ” Stanton, Trump, Joe, ” Trump, David Weiss’s, Weiss, Harris, 🚨, Dru, Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Democratic, Democratic Party, Department of Justice, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Trump, FDA Locations: Arizona, Stanton, California, Biden’s
TBILISI, Georgia — Police in Georgia arrested a prominent opposition leader early Monday after using water cannon and tear gas to scatter anti-government protesters who rallied outside Parliament for the fourth straight night. Critics saw that as confirmation of a Russian-influenced shift away from pro-Western policies, something the ruling party denies. The Coalition for Change, the country’s largest opposition party, said in a post on X that Zurab Japaridze, one of its leaders, had been arrested by police while leaving the demonstration. Giorgi Arjevanidze / AFP via Getty Images fileZourabichvili has called for pressure to be brought on the Constitutional Court to annul elections won by the ruling party, Georgian Dream, in October. Tension in Georgia has been building for months as the ruling party has passed laws on “foreign agents” and on curbing LGBT rights.
Persons: Girogi Arjevanidze, Dmitry Medvedev, Nikoloz Miruashvili, Irakli Kobakhidze, , , Salome Zourabichvili, Ilia Topuria, Giorgi Arjevanidze, Kobakhidze, Zourabichvili Organizations: Georgia — Police, European Union, Critics, Coalition, Russia, Police, France Inter, Getty Locations: TBILISI, Georgia, Russian, Tbilisi , Georgia, AFP, United States, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Tbilisi, Georgian, Russia
CNN —Days of protests have rocked Georgia following the government’s controversial decision to delay the former Soviet country’s bid to join the European Union. Tensions intensified in late October when Georgian Dream claimed victory in a contested election that was widely seen as a referendum on joining the EU. Opposition TV channel Formula showed people in the central town of Khashuri throwing eggs at the local Georgian Dream office and tearing down the party’s flag. Georgian Dream, founded by a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia, has taken a sharp authoritarian turn in recent years. Experts have warned the suspension of EU talks is another sign the country is going down an undemocratic path under Georgian Dream.
Persons: Irakli Kobakhidze, , , Giorgi Arjevanidze, “ I’ve, , ” Tsotne, Salome Zourabichvili, Ketevan, Georgians ”, Matthew Miller, Kaja Kallas, Kobakhidze, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev Organizations: CNN, European Union, Georgian, EU, , Getty, Georgians, Police, Reuters, Opposition, Interpress, Western, National Democratic Institute ., Democratic, Center for, US State Department, Georgia, Security, of Russia Locations: Georgia, Soviet, South Caucasus, Georgian, Russia, Europe, Soviet Union, ” Georgia, Tbilisi, AFP, Black, Poti, Tbilisi , Georgia, Ukraine, Russian, US, United States
Oil inches up on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
  + stars: | 2024-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged up on Monday supported by upbeat factory activity in the world's second largest oil consumer China and as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement, stoking tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices edged up on Monday supported by upbeat factory activity in the world's second largest oil consumer China and as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement, stoking tensions in the Middle East. "China data is helping, but I think it is also coming on concerns the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire may not hold," IG's Sydney-based market analyst Tony Sycamore said. A truce between Israel and Lebanon came into effect on Wednesday but both sides have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire. The Lebanese Health Ministry said in a statement several people were wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon.
Persons: Donald Trump, Tony Sycamore, Bashar al, Assad, Sycamore, Brent Organizations: Brent, West Texas, Lebanese Health Ministry, Air, of, Petroleum, Reuters Locations: China, Israel, Lebanon, East, Sydney, Syria, Aleppo, OPEC
UK annual house prices rise by most in two years, Nationwide says
  + stars: | 2024-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
British house prices rose in November at the fastest annual pace since November 2022, according to data from mortgage lender Nationwide on Monday that added to signs of resilience in the property sector despite higher borrowing costs. Annual prices rose 3.7% in November, and rose 1.2% on a monthly basis, Nationwide said. Other measures of Britain's housing market have also shown momentum picking up. Figures from the Bank of England last week showed lenders approved the most mortgages for house purchases since August 2022. Gardener expects the housing market to continue to strengthen in the coming months.
Persons: Robert Gardner, BOE, Gardener, Keir Starmer's Organizations: Nationwide, Bank of England, Keir Starmer's Labour Locations: Guildford, England, British
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' November reignMajor U.S. indexes climbed on Friday, a shortened day of trading, ending the week and the month higher. Second-best month for BitcoinBitcoin celebrated its second-best month of the year so far, jumping 38% for November. [PRO] Eyes on November's jobs reportThis week's major piece of data is November's jobs report, out Friday.
Persons: Stocks, Bitcoin Bitcoin, Donald Trump, Musk, Elon Musk, OpenAI, It'll Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Reserve Bank of India, OpenAI, Elon, U.S . Federal Locations: New York City, U.S .
China's manufacturing activity continued to expand among smaller manufacturers in November, signaling that the country's recent stimulus efforts have already helped to lift certain sectors of its ailing economy, according to a private survey released Monday. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing manager's index came in at 51.5, beating the median estimate of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. The Caixin survey tends to feature more small- and medium-sized firms as well as private sector companies, compared to the official PMI survey which typically polls large and state-owned firms. China's economy has shown some early signs of recovery following a slate of stimulus measures introduced from late September. However, Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win has raised concerns over increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which could dent its export sector.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: P Global, PMI, Reuters, People's Bank of China Locations: China
With nearly all the ballots now counted in the 2024 election, we can fully evaluate the performance of the national and battleground polls this cycle. The battleground polls also weren’t far off the mark, either, although their misses were slightly larger than what we saw in the national polling. What else the polls got rightBeyond signaling that the 2024 presidential election was competitive and uncertain, the polls nailed the political atmospherics that shaped the contest. Additionally, the polls foretold many of the key demographic trends that ended up defining the 2024 election, including Trump’s gains with Latino voters. That was a major story in the 2024 election: There were more self-identified Republican voters than Democratic voters.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Joe Biden, overperforming Biden, Trump Organizations: NBC News, Trump, New York Times, Pew Research, NBC, Telemundo, CNBC, Biden, Democratic, Republicans Locations: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Trump
AdvertisementWorkers can start taking steps now to help boost their careers into next year. People should enhance their AI skills to stay competitive, one executive told BI. Volunteering and side hustles can boost skills, empowerment, and career opportunities. One way to improve your AI skills is simply to use it. Saad told BI that many nonprofits lack the resources to meet all of their operational needs.
Persons: Sean Barry, Barry, It's, Kiki Leutner, Leutner, Leila Saad, Saad, you've, , Jennifer Schielke, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Harris, Zers, millennials Organizations: Workers, Allstate, University of Oxford, Group Solutions, Glassdoor
LONDON — British lawmakers voted on Friday in favor of a landmark bill that would for the first time help terminally ill adults end their lives. Assisted suicide is currently illegal in Britain and carries a prison sentence of up to 14 years. While the current prime minister Keir Starmer has previously opposed assisted dying, he has not said how he plans to vote Friday. But former-Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron this week said that he had reversed his opposition to the U.K. bill. The former prime minister wrote that the bill would apply to a very small number of cases and that “the NHS exists to serve patients and the public, not the other way around.”
Persons: , Kim Leadbeater, James Manning, , ” Gordon Macdonald, YouGov, Keir Starmer, Esther Rantzen, Switzerland …, , , Gordon Brown, — Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, David Cameron, Cameron, Wes Streeting — Organizations: LONDON, Labour Party, Getty, Sky News, Labour, Conservative, The, London, National Health Service Locations: Canada, Australia, England, Wales, Britain, London, Netherlands, U.K, Switzerland, The Times
The holiday season is a time to give thanks, reflect on the past year, and spend time with family and friends. However, if you're not careful, it can also be a time you overspend on holiday purchases. About 83% of Americans plan to buy gifts for friends and family this holiday season, according to a NerdWallet poll. Meanwhile, 28% of people are still paying off credit card debt from the 2023 holiday season, NerdWallet found. They are "wired" to be consumers, said Brad Klontz, a psychologist, certified financial planner and behavioral finance expert.
Persons: NerdWallet, Brad Klontz, hasn't, Klontz, Andrea Woroch Organizations: CNBC's, CNBC, Financial Wellness, Board, Finance
Ether , the digital silver to bitcoin's gold, has outperformed the rest of crypto since the U.S. election and brought ether ETFs to life at last. Plus, the absence of regulatory clarity has meant an inability for investors to " stake " their ether for yield. It's still up 59% for 2024, but it's trailing bitcoin at 126% and the rest of the crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, at 94%. "[The] Trump impact on bitcoin and crypto including ETH is not priced in yet," he said. To be sure, there's an awareness gap among average investors of bitcoin versus ether.
Persons: Solana, It's, Zach Pandl, Mark Connors, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, Pandl, Ethereum, Matt Hougan, , JPMorgan's, Hougan, I'm, Harris, — it's Organizations: Investors, Solana, ETH, Bitwise, DeFi Locations: United States, U.S, tokenization, bitcoin, ETH —, ETH
File photo of Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaking at a convention in Athlone, central Ireland on March 24, 2024, after becoming de facto prime minister-in-waiting. The exit poll put the left wing Sinn Fein on 21.1%, the center-right Fine Gael of Prime Minister Simon Harris on 21.0% and like-minded coalition partner Fianna Fail on 19.5%. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail pledged ahead of the election to seek to form a coalition without Sinn Fein, just as they did after the 2020 general election when Sinn Fein also narrowly won the popular vote. They benefited from a slide in support for Sinn Fein, from 30-35% in polls in 2022 and 2023, in part due to anger among its working class base at relatively liberal immigration policies. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will likely need the support of at least one other smaller party to reach a majority.
Persons: Simon Harris, Harris, Leo Varadkar, Sinn Fein, largesse Organizations: Fine Gael, Gael, Fianna, Government, Greens Locations: Athlone, Ireland, Ireland's, Europe
A general view of the Lotte tower amid the the Seoul city skyline and Han river during sunset. Asia-Pacific markets were poised to open mixed after Wall Street rally stalled overnight even as inflation data came in line with expectations. The U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index, or PCE, rose 2.3% on an annualized basis, accelerating from 2.1% in September. The Bank of Korea is expected to hold its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.25% when its monetary policy committee meets later in the day, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 19,618, higher than the HSI's last close of 19,603.13.
Organizations: Wall, Reuters, Bank of, Nikkei Locations: Seoul, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Korea, Chicago, Osaka
Kinga Krzeminska | Moment | Getty ImagesIreland goes to the polls on Nov. 29, with center-right parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael once again expected to form the nucleus of the country's next government. On the flipside, there are concerns in Dublin that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will look to clamp down on U.S. companies paying taxes in Ireland, instead of in America. Political angleThe country's two biggest parties look once again on track to form a government, despite some travails for Fine Gael as the campaign winds down. The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll of Nov. 25 shows support for Fine Gael falling six points to 19% over the last two weeks, while Fianna Fáil's backing now stands at 21%. It is nevertheless unclear what policy changes can be expected, given the sway that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to have in a potential government.
Persons: Kinga, Fáil, Donald Trump, Republican Party Sinn, Emma Howard, Jack Chambers, Howard, Trump's Organizations: Images, Fine Gael, Green Party, European Court of Justice, Apple, Irish Times, Republican Party, Housing, Central Bank of Ireland, TU Dublin, CNBC, IMF, ECB, European Commission, Finance, AAA Locations: Ireland, Dublin, America
Brisbane, Australia CNN —Australia’s parliament has passed a world-first law banning social media for children under 16, putting tech companies on notice to tighten security before a cut-off date that’s yet to be set. Under the new law, tech companies must take “reasonable steps” to prevent under-age users from accessing social media services or face fines of nearly 50 million Australian dollars ($32 million). “We know that social media can be a weapon for bullies, a platform for peer pressure, a driver of anxiety, a vehicle for scammers. The prime minister says he’s worried about social media. “We need to make social media safer for everybody.”A rushed processThe government has faced considerable criticism for the speed of the legislation.
Persons: Australia CNN —, Anthony Albanese, “ we’ve, , Albanese, Liberal Sen, Maria Kovacic, Greens Sen, Sarah Hanson, Young, he’s, , TikTok, , Bill, Elon Musk, YouGov, Dany Elachi, didn’t, won’t Organizations: Australia CNN, Facebook, Liberal Party, Liberal, Greens, Tech, Meta, Inc, Up Alliance Locations: Brisbane, Australia
AdvertisementAustralia's government approved a law that would ban social media for kids under 16. The law gives tech companies one year to figure out how to keep children under 16 from using their social platforms or risk up to $32 million in fines. Australia's new law specifically bars social media companies from asking for users' IDs in an effort to protect privacy rights. Snap Inc., which owns Snapchat, said "device-level age verification" was the best possible option to meet the requirements. "We know some kids will find workarounds, but we're sending a message to social media companies to clean up their act."
Persons: Australia's, Snapchat, Anthony Albanese, Julie Inman Grant, Elon Musk, Albanese Organizations: Meta, New York Times, Google, Inc Locations: Australia
A national CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week found that 71% of people plan to avoid political discussions at Thanksgiving. Voss was among the dozens of people on social media who posted videos about how they are opting out of their family Thanksgiving plans. Van Bavel is director of NYU’s Social Identity and Morality Lab, which studies the dynamics of shared social identities. “There’s way more diversity among Republicans than most Democrats believe, and there’s way more diversity among most Democrats than most Republicans believe,” Van Bavel said. Jay Van Bavel, psychology professor at New York University“One of the biggest fears people have is being socially ostracized,” Van Bavel said.
Persons: Donald Trump, it’s, , Alexis Voss, Voss, she’s, , , Yale, Amanda Calhoun, MSNBC’s Joy Reid, I’m, , Jesse Watters, Elon Musk, Jay Van Bavel, Van Bavel, ” Van Bavel, ” Diana Rodriguez Wallach, Kamala Harris, Wallach, Jordan Williams, MAGA, Williams, Scott Walker, Walker, they’re Organizations: Trump, CBS, Fox News, New York University, Democratic, New York University “ One Locations: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rican, California, United States
After almost 14 months of deadly bombings, the skies above southern Lebanon and northern Israel were quiet Wednesday as a ceasefire negotiated by the United States took effect. In northern Israel, 60,000 people have been forced from their homes, with 80 soldiers and 50 civilians killed, according to local officials. He did not say when those displaced by the fighting might be able to return to their homes in northern Israel. The Israeli military, which has not yet withdrawn from southern Lebanon, said the opposite. Nahariya, northern Israel, seen here Wednesday, is one of the areas affected by the conflict.
Persons: Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Hala Saeed, Nidal Solh, ” Kamal al, Haj Ali, Netanyahu, , Israel, , Nabih Berri, , Avichay Adraee, Jake Sullivan, Biden, Ahmad Gharabli, Itamar Ben Gvir Organizations: United, Hezbollah, Associated Press, Getty, AP, United Nations, UNHCR, Israel Defense Forces Arab, IDF, European Union, Palestinian, MSNBC, Channel, Netanyahu's, National Locations: Lebanon, Israel, United States, Iran, Lebanese, AFP, Sidon, Gaza, Washington, France, Syria, , , Middle, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar
China's industrial profits dropped by 10% in October from a year ago, in another sign that Beijing's stimulus measures have yet to reverse a slump in corporate earnings. Industrial profits are a key gauge of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities in China. In the first ten months, profits at China's industrial firms decreased by 4.3% from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Wednesday. China's consumer price index in October rose slower than expected, edging up 0.3% from a year ago, marking the slowest rise since June. Meanwhile, producer price index fell 2.9% on year, showing that deflation deepened from the 2.8% drop in the prior month.
Persons: — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI Locations: Oriental, Lianyungang Port, Lianyungang, China
The full moon, otherwise known as a strawberry supermoon, is seen over the Skyline of the CBD in Sydney, Australia June 15, 2022. Steven Saphore | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets are set to open mixed on Wednesday, following gains on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach new intraday and closing records. Traders in Asia will assesses monthly consumer price index figures out of Australia, set for release later in the day. A poll from Reuters expects the monthly CPI indicator to have risen 2.3% in October year on year, from 2.1% in September. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 19,172 slightly higher than the HSI's last close of 19,159.2.
Persons: Steven Saphore, Australia's Organizations: Skyline, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Dow Jones, Traders, Reuters, Nikkei Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
In today’s edition, two of our Capitol Hill experts, Sahil Kapur and Frank Thorp V, break down the key senators to watch in the confirmation battles over Donald Trump's Cabinet. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki takes a break from election data to dive into the polling around what Americans plan to serve at Thanksgiving this year. Programming note: From the Politics Desk is taking a holiday break the rest of the week. Trump’s Cabinet picks present an opening for Collins to further demonstrate her independent streak if she chooses to vote against some of Trump’s more controversial picks. The Cabinet nominees could be an opportunity for him to flex his muscle and use his vote to shape Trump’s agenda.
Persons: Sahil Kapur, Frank Thorp V, Donald Trump's, Steve Kornacki, We’ll, Frank Thorp, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Sen, Susan Collins, Trump, Trump’s, Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Matt Gaetz, Wade, Mitch McConnell, McConnell, Thom Tillis, Tillis, John Fetterman, Fetterman, , that’s, John Thune, Bill Cassidy, John Curtis, Jon Ossoff, Frank →, , ina, guration in, e, roa, uli Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump’s, Trump’s Cabinet, Cabinet, Republican, GOP Locations: Maine, Alaska, Roe, Israel, Gaza, Utah, Sahil, Turkey
Other companies that withdrew or toned down their DEI initiatives include Lowe's and Ford. Tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, and Zoom cut DEI programs this year, Business Insider reported in July, and law firms, including Winston & Strawn, faced lawsuits for affirmative action. The Human Rights Campaign slammed companies' DEI rollbacks in an August statement to BI. Advertisement"Decisions to cut DEI initiatives send a clear signal to employees that their employers simply don't care about equality in the workplace. Here are how some companies have cut their DEI programs.
Persons: Robby Starbuck, Jill Kramer, Strawn, Starbuck, Eric Bloem Organizations: Walmart, Ford, Accenture, Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Business, Winston, Washington Post, Rights
AdvertisementAgility Robotics CEO Peggy Johnson says humanoid robots are filling some labor gaps. AdvertisementDigit is Agility Robotics' mobile manipulation humanoid robot. It competes with the likes of Apptronik, which is working with NASA on humanoid robots, and Boston Dynamics, which has created humanoid robots called Atlas that it says can run and jump over obstacles, as well as perform factory worker tasks. Agility Robotics' humanoid robots are currently only permitted to work inside a specific, cordoned-off space separate from human workers. Agility Robotics takes a similarly cautious approach to its application of artificial intelligence, which is deep in the hype stage.
Persons: Peggy Johnson, it'll, Johnson, GXO, Ford, , Optimus, ChatGPT, doesn't Organizations: Robotics, pharma, Silicon, Agility Robotics, Business, Deloitte, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Digit, GXO Logistics, Mobile, Ford Amazon, Agility, NASA, Boston Dynamics, Gallup, Microsoft, Qualcomm Locations: Lisbon, Portugal
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