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☆ Putin is promising Russians billions of dollars of lifestyle improvements — but it's unclear where all that money will come from
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

At his state-of-the-nation address on Thursday, Putin pledged plans to improve living standards in Russia. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Putin's promises could cost Russia $130 billion more than its current budget, according to analysts' estimates, per Bloomberg. Putin called on Russians to have more babies last month to "survive as an ethnic group."

Persons: Putin, —, Vladimir Putin, There's, aren't, Dmitry Polevoy, Putin —, Polevoy Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Putin, Reuters, London, Astra Asset Management Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine

☆ Rouble soars vs dollar as market gauges impact of latest US sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MOSCOW, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble soared on Friday as the market gauged the impact of Washington's latest sanctions against Moscow over the war in Ukraine, heading back towards a three-month high on the support of foreign currency sales and soaring interest rates. By 1455 GMT, the rouble was 1% stronger against the dollar at 92.39 , not too far from 91.6225, its strongest point since Aug. 1, hit on Wednesday. The rouble has now lost support from month-end tax payments, which were due on Monday and usually see exporters convert foreign exchange revenues to pay domestic liabilities. The rouble has strengthened from beyond 100 to the dollar since that decree was announced. "Sanctions may play a stabilising role for the rouble, helping the central bank fight inflation," Polevoy said.

Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Dmitry Polevoy, Polevoy, Alexander Marrow, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Moscow, Brent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Russian, Ukraine, United States, Russia, Locko

Nabiullina also said the budget was a significant factor in Friday's decision. "It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble. But the bank set its 2023 key rate range at 15-15.2%, suggesting rates could climb further and Nabiullina said that may be required. Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Liam Peach, Dmitry Polevoy, Sergei Konygin, Vladimir Soldatkin, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, John Stonestreet, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank, Russia, Bank of Russia, Capital Economics, Reuters, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko, London

But Russia's Accounts Chamber, which oversees budget execution, warned on Monday there were risks the Urals price would fall below $60 in 2024-2026. Russia's forecast sees economic growth of 2.3% in 2024, well above estimates of 1.1% from the International Monetary Fund and 0.5%-1.5% from the Bank of Russia. CHANGING TUNEAt Russia's flagship economic forum in St Petersburg in June, Siluanov said increasing expenditure was difficult, as budget spending had already increased by 1-1/2 times from 2019 to 2022. Now, even as the government outlines plans for spending to jump to 36.7 trillion roubles in 2024, he is more relaxed. Renaissance Capital's Donets and Melaschenko said Russia could create temporary taxes, permanently increase rates of VAT, or adjust Russia's budget rule to permit more spending of energy revenues.

Persons: Evgenia, Anton Tabakh, Vladimir Putin, Anton Siluanov, Denis Popov, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Sofya Donets, Andrei Melaschenko, Dmitry Polevoy, Siluanov, Melaschenko, Alexei Sazanov, Sazanov, Konstantin Sonin, It's, Sumanta Sen, Mark Trevelyan, Alexander Marrow, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Washington, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Russia, Capital, Reuters Graphics Russia, University of Chicago, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, West, St Petersburg

REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Russian rouble climbs to over 2-week high vs dollarMove comes after Putin reimposes currency controlsRouble had slumped to over 18-month low this weekAnalysts expect rouble to firm more in coming weeksOct 12 (Reuters) - Russia's rouble leapt against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the mandatory sale of foreign currency revenues for some exporters to buttress the currency. The rouble collapsed to a record low in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, before Moscow imposed similar capital controls that saw it recover to a seven-year high. Kogan warned, however, that by 2025-2026 businesses would form plans based on a rouble rate of 100-105. The central bank endorsed the measures, a shift in its stance, after it previously warned of the inefficiency of currency controls. "The rouble is even less tradable for foreign investors after Russia re-imposed some capital controls," Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.

Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Putin, Rouble, rouble, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Kogan, Kogan, Gref, Andrei Belousov, Piotr Matys, Dmitry Polevoy, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Amruta, Robert Birsel, Mark Potter, Varun, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Russia's Higher, of Economics, TASS, Wednesday, Bank of Russia, FX, Touch, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, outflows, Locko, Bangalore

A Russian state flag flies over the Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia, August 15, 2023. International sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine have blocked many Russian investors' access to securities held in jurisdictions outside the country, while Russian countermeasures have frozen Western funds within. "Interested foreign investors would be given the opportunity to buy 'blocked' foreign securities from Russian investors in exchange for funds held in type-C accounts," the central bank said. "The participation of investors (both Russian and foreign) in this process will be voluntary." Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Tuesday asked President Vladimir Putin to support the plans, starting with the unblocking of about 100 billion roubles ($1.06 billion) in frozen funds belonging to retail investors.

Persons: Shamil Zhumatov, Clearstream, Anton Siluanov, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Polevoy, Alexander Marrow, Devika Organizations: Central Bank, Bank of, REUTERS, Wednesday, Moscow, Thomson Locations: Russian, Moscow, Russia, Bank of Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Locko

☆ Exclusive: Russia doubles 2023 defence spending plan as war costs soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

They show that in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent 12%, or 600 billion roubles, more on defence than the 4.98 trillion roubles ($54 billion) it had originally targeted for 2023. Defence spending in the first six months of 2023 amounted to 5.59 trillion roubles, 37.3% of a total 14.97 trillion roubles spent in the period, the document showed. Between 2011 and 2022, Russia spent a minimum of 13.9% and a maximum 23% of its budget on defence. Russia has already spent 57.4% of its new annual defence budget, the document showed. Funding for schools, hospitals and roads was already being squeezed this year in favour of defence and security, but as the share of defence spending grows, other areas could face cuts.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Ilya Pitalyov, Denis Manturov, Dmitry Polevoy, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Sputnik, Reuters, Defence, MMI Telegram, Bank of Russia, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Russian, Saint Petersburg, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko

April 27 (Reuters) - The rouble steadied on Thursday, with the market looking ahead to Friday's interest rate decision, as favourable month-end tax payments propped the Russian currency up amid a significant drop in oil prices. By 1322 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% stronger against the dollar at 81.44 and had gained 0.6% to trade at 89.76 versus the euro . Month-end tax payments that usually lead exporters to convert foreign currency revenue to meet local liabilities are putting a floor under the rouble. Oil prices dropped almost 4% on Wednesday, extending sharp losses from the previous session, driven by fears of a U.S. recession and an increase in Russian oil exports which dulled the impact of OPEC production cuts. "We still see no reason for the central bank to change the rate and its rhetoric, but inflation risks will continue to concern the central bank more than economic growth," said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko-Invest.

But based on Friday's figures, Russia posted a surplus in March of 181 billion roubles, improving on deficits of 821 billion roubles in February and 1.76 trillion roubles in January. Spending accelerated 34% in the quarter to 8.1 trillion roubles, the preliminary data showed. Overall government income was down 20.8% in the quarter compared with 2022 at 5.7 trillion roubles, led by a 45% dive in energy revenues to 1.64 trillion roubles, the data showed. "The large budget deficit...increases nervousness on the market in relation to the price that geopolitical tensions are costing, and requires efforts directed at improving budget revenues," she said. The central bank has repeatedly warned that the budget deficit poses inflationary risks and may compel it to raise interest rates from the current 7.5%.

☆ The Russian ruble is at its lowest level in a year on speculation Shell is going to repatriate $1 billion of recent earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Russia ruble fell to its lowest since April 2022 amid speculation Shell could repatriate $1.2 billion of the currency. This comes amid a growing liquidity crunch and foreign flight on the back of Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recently surpassed the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia. Trading at 81.6 rubles on Thursday, this marks the currency's lowest level since April 2022. "With liquidity in the currency market low, it leads to increased volatility for the ruble."

Last week's official data showed annual industrial output decline slowed in February, largely thanks to the defence sector, offsetting some of the damage wrought mainly by sanctions on Russia's key energy exports. Russian industrial output fell 1.7% year-on-year in February after a 2.4% drop in January, data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed. Polevoy estimated that non-defence industrial production shrank about 8% year-on-year, while output of sectors with a high share of state defence orders jumped 36%. The decline in energy revenues has pushed Russia's budget deficit to $34 billion in January-February, compared with a surplus of $4 billion in 2022. LONG-TERM DECLINEAn independent study last month suggested Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows, even if sanctions get relaxed.

REUTERS/Maxim ShemetovSummarySummary Companies This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in UkraineMOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Russian banks and politicians have played down the latest foreign sanctions on Russian lenders, promising speedy solutions to any problems with clients' foreign currency dealings. Those sanctioned last week have responded in a largely relaxed manner, with some saying disruption will be limited and others restricting foreign currency transactions or suspending euro trading on brokerage accounts. Russia's major banks have rallied after an initial hit from last year's Western sanctions and now jostle for business from the state, particularly a burgeoning defence budget, and big corporate accounts. Sanctions have mostly hurt Russians wanting to travel abroad or hold foreign currency. Alexander Shokhin, Russia's top business lobby chief, was more cautious, saying the situation could change rapidly, and that Russian banks needed to act pre-emptively.

☆ Russian rouble surges as volatile year draws to a close
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By 0755 GMT, the rouble was 1.8% stronger against the dollar at 70.87 , recovering some ground from the eight-month low of 72.9175 hit in the previous session. The rouble has lost around 13% to the dollar since the price cap on Russian oil exports came into force on Dec. 5, although analysts have said the technical impact would be more strongly felt in January-February. It had gained 0.4% to trade at 75.58 versus the euro and firmed 2.9% against the yuan to 9.89 . Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.6% at $84.0 a barrel. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 0.2% lower at 2,143.5 points.

☆ Russian rouble strengthens vs dollar as volatile year ends
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At 0708 GMT, the rouble was 1.3% stronger against the dollar at 71.22 , recovering some ground from the eight-month low of 72.9175 hit in the previous session. The rouble has lost around 13% to the dollar since the price cap on Russian oil exports came into force on Dec. 5, although analysts have said the technical impact would be more strongly felt in January-February. It had gained 0.6% to trade at 75.54 versus the euro and firmed 1.7% against the yuan to 10.01 . Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.6% at $84.0 a barrel. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 0.2% higher at 2,151.1 points.

☆ Rouble slumps to 7-month low, biggest one-day drop since July
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

By 1515 GMT, the rouble was 4.3% weaker against the dollar at 67.41 , earlier hitting 68.4800, its weakest mark since May 11. The currency also lost 3.8% to trade at 71.71 against the euro , also a more than seven-month low. That weakening stems from concerns that an oil embargo and price cap will reduce Russia's oil export revenues, increasing the budget deficit as imports gradually recover, said Alfa Capital analyst Yulia Melnikova. The dollar-denominated RTS index (.IRTS) was down 4% to 996.9 points, a more than two-month low. Reporting by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Bradley Perrett, Ed Osmond, Arun Koyyur and Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Rouble plunges below 68 per dollar to hit over 7-month low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Rouble dives around 5% against dollar, yuanHits 68.1100 vs dollar, weakest since May 11Weak oil prices, sanctions fears hurtThis content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in UkraineMOSCOW, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble slumped past 68 per U.S. dollar to a more than seven-month low on Monday, hurt by low oil prices and fears that sanctions on Russian oil could crimp the country's export revenue. By 1248 GMT, the rouble was 5.3% weaker against the dollar at 68.02 , its weakest mark since May 11. The currency also lost 4.2% to trade at 72.00 against the euro , its weakest since May 6. Relatively low oil prices and risks of lower export revenue in the light of the $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil imposed by the G7, the European Union and Australia, have pressured the rouble. The dollar-denominated RTS index (.IRTS) was down 5.4% to 982.8 points, a more than two-month low.

All 23 analysts and economists polled by Reuters on Monday predicted that Russia would keep its benchmark rate unchanged (RUCBIR=ECI) again on Friday. There is no intrigue surrounding Friday's rate decision, said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko Invest. "The 7.5% rate is unlikely to be changed and the neutral signal maintained," he said. Annual inflation slowed to 11.98% in November, partly due to the strong rouble and weak demand. "Inflation is slowing down now, but not sharply," said Andrei Dyuryagin, investments director at MKB Investments.

☆ Ukraine conflict, sanctions set to blow hole in Russia's finances
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Darya Korsunskaya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While Russia's economy initially held up relatively well to the waves of Western sanctions imposed on it, the impact is beginning to show - in analysts' assessments, if not in those of the government. Analysts at state bank VTB (VTBR.MM) forecast the gap at an even wider 4-4.5 trillion roubles. The finance ministry sees non-energy revenue, or that related to economic activity, at 11.5% of GDP in 2023, around 7% higher than this year and on par with pre-pandemic levels. The finance ministry did not reply to a Reuters request for a comment. "I very much hope that the finance ministry will avoid outright money printing."

☆ Russian rouble stable after Moscow ditches Black Sea grain deal
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble pared early losses to gain ground on Monday in the first session since Moscow said it would suspend its role in the landmark Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Global food prices climbed on Monday after Russia said it was suspending participation in the U.N.-brokered grain accord for an "indefinite term" after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its Black Sea fleet in Crimea. The July grain corridor deal, which helped to unlock Ukrainian exports from its southern Black Sea ports, was the most significant diplomatic breakthrough so far in the eight-month-old conflict in Ukraine. Monday represented the final day of a domestic month-end tax period, which usually provides some support to the rouble. For Russian equities guide seeFor Russian treasury bonds seeReporting by Jake Cordell Editing by David Goodman and Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Rouble steadies near 61 vs dollar with upcoming rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At 0806 GMT, the rouble was unchanged against the dollar at 61.29 . It had gained 0.1% to trade at 60.17 versus the euro and shed 0.5% against the yuan to 8.35 . The rouble is buttressed by a month-end tax period that usually sees export-focused firms convert foreign exchange revenues into roubles to pay domestic tax liabilities. Last month the bank cut rates to 7.5%, but omitted guidance about studying the need for future reductions. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 1.3% at $92.3 a barrel.

☆ Russian rouble climbs to one-week high vs dollar as tax period begins
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By 0848 GMT, the rouble was 1.1% stronger against the dollar at 61.41 , hitting its strongest point since Oct. 10. It gained 0.6% to trade at 60.35 versus the euro and firmed 1.6% against the yuan to 8.47 , a near two-week high. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterExport-focused firms usually convert foreign exchange revenues into roubles to pay domestic tax liabilities, which supports the Russian currency. "On the other hand, RTS should power higher on further rouble appreciation – typical for the end-of-the-month tax period." The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.3% higher at 1,977.1 points.

"The mobilisation declaration and the strengthening of geopolitical and sanctions risk are launching the second wave of the economic crisis," said Evgeny Suvorov, an economist at CentroCreditBank, expecting Russia's economic contraction to worsen in the final months of the year. But there was no acknowledgement of any link to his sudden partial mobilisation announcement on Sept. 21. The central bank on Tuesday said economic activity in Russia slowed significantly at the end of September. "The main consequence of mobilisation is the loss of human capital," said veteran economist Natalya Zubarevich. "It was possible to count exclusively on human capital to pull the economy through, but now a part of this human capital of productive age is subject to mobilisation and another part is leaving," Polevoy said.

☆ Rouble hits over 2-month high vs dollar, Russian stocks stutter
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

By 1217 GMT, the rouble was 0.9% stronger against the dollar at 57.00 , earlier hitting 56.5450, its strongest point since July 22. "For now, the rouble is supported by fears that new sanctions from the West could paralyse dollar trading in Russia," said Alor Broker in a note. STOCKS RECOVERY STUTTERSBCS Global Markets said geopolitical risks should prohibit any major leg up for Russian stock indexes, which pared early gains. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.4% lower at 1,936.0 points, heading back towards February lows hit on Monday. "In the coming days, the Russian market should trade in a narrow band - investors are likely to sit on the fence hoping for more clarity," BCS said.

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