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For the most part, the market has paid little attention, but this time the message seems to have hit home. Banks stocks have been weak, and even former leaders in industrials like Parker Hannifin have been down. Fewer than 50% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Energy stocks are up, but even they have been selling off in the last week, despite the rise of oil. "Rising interest rates have made commodities-related areas, from industrial metals to energy, interesting for the time being," Timmer noted.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Russell, Parker, Frank Gretz, Timmer, Lowry Organizations: UAW, Retail, Airlines, JETS, Transports, Banks, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, Wellington, Commodities, Energy Locations: Banks, industrials, Taiwan, Wellington Shields, mused
Options trading has exploded in the last few years, and recently a particular type of options trading has become popular with retail and institutional traders alike. Why are they so popular, and what impact might they have on prices in indexes like the S & P 500 and individual stocks? Most people lose money trading options in general. Most people lose money trading options in general, and all this does is allow them to lose money more consistently." The heavy flows have attracted the interest of the ETF industry, which is looking to launch new options trading products soon.
Persons: they're, Cboe, Patrick Moley, Moley, Michael Green, Green, Ed Tilly Organizations: Business, PiperSandler, Apple, Edge
Second quarter guidance is light, but guidance is unchanged for the year. Traders are "not sure they should be leaning into, or out of, the market," Craig Johnson at PiperSandler tells me. One of the favorite indicators traders like to use is the "pain trade." "The pain trade is up," Johnson, a chief market technician, tells me. "Everyone is negatively positioned; the real risk is they get caught offsides and the market moves higher."
The short answer seems to be, not much, but banks have a whole other list of problems. Signature Bank , a commercial bank based in New York City with a small exposure to crypto, is down about 15% to a new low this week on its exposure to crypto. Not surprisingly, analysts are trying to parse the distinctions between Silvergate, a bank that was a major player in the crypto space, and other banks who merely had some interest in crypto. On that kind of pressure, major regional banks like PNC, MTB, Zions Bancorp and Comerica are at or near 52-week lows this week. Regional banks this week MTB - 8% Regions Financial - 8% KeyCorp - 6% Fifth Third - 7%
Earnings : More than 20% of the S & P 500 will report this week; by next Friday, 50% of the S & P will have reported. Craig Johnson at PiperSandler noted that 66% of all S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. It's not just the big-cap S & P 500 that is advancing: So are small-caps. The S & P High-Beta ETF is up 16% this month, at its highest levels since April of 2022. If that holds, it's the first positive January for the S & P 500 since 2019, when it was up 7.9%.
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