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Rome, Italy Reuters —Italian police have uncovered a large-scale pan-European forgery network making and selling fake artworks attributed to some of the biggest names in modern and contemporary art including Banksy, Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol. The chief prosecutor of Pisa, Teresa Angela Camelio, said experts from the Banksy archive who assisted with the investigation considered Monday’s operation as “the biggest act of protection of Banksy’s work.”Some of the fake artworks displayed by the Carabinieri in Pisa, Italy. 02:42 - Source: CNNThey said their probe started in 2023 when they seized about 200 fake pieces from the collection of a businessman in Pisa including a copy of a drawing by Italian painter Amedeo Modigliani. That led them to forgeries sold by auction houses across Italy, and to connect them to a known group believed to specialize in forgeries of Banksy and Warhol. To boost their credentials, the unnamed suspects organized two Banksy exhibitions with a published catalog in prestigious locations in Mestre near Venice and Cortona in Tuscany, investigators said.
Persons: Banksy, Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol, Teresa Angela Camelio, , Claude Monet, Vincent Van Gogh, Salvador Dalí, Henry Moore, Marc Chagall, Francis Bacon, Paul Klee, Piet Mondrian, Amedeo Modigliani, Warhol Organizations: Italy Reuters, Carabinieri, Reuters, Reuters Pest Control, CNN Locations: Rome, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Pisa, Reuters Pest, Tuscany, Venice, Europe, Mestre, Cortona
David Shapiro, a cerebral yet deeply personal poet aligned with the so-called New York School, whose highly lyrical work balanced copious literary allusions with dreamlike imagery and intimate reflections drawn from family life, died on Saturday in the Bronx. His wife, Lindsay Stamm Shapiro, said the cause of his death, in a hospice facility, was Parkinson’s disease. Mr. Shapiro published 11 volumes of poetry during his six-decade career. His book “You Are You: Writings and Interviews on Poetry, Art and the New York School” is scheduled to be published this fall. And he maintained a career in academia that included decades as an art history professor at William Paterson University in Wayne, N.J.
Persons: David Shapiro, Lindsay Stamm Shapiro, Shapiro, , Piet Mondrian, Jasper Johns, Jim Dine Organizations: New York School, William Paterson University, Columbia University Locations: Bronx, Wayne , N.J, mater
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.
Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. That was a relief to financial markets, roiled in recent weeks by a surge in government bond yields led by U.S. Treasuries. The central bank reiterated it would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under its 1.7 trillion euro pandemic-era bond scheme until the end of 2024. Instead, the ECB kept the emphasis on slowing inflation, raising investors' conviction that September's rate rise was the central bank's last. And inflation risks have not disappeared.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Gabriele Foa, reinvestments, Marcus Brookes, Sabrina Kanniche, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, Nick Zieminski Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, U.S, Treasuries, Reuters, Danske Bank, The Bank of, Algebris, Quilter Investors, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, Copenhagen, Israel, The Bank of Canada, wean, Ukraine
Julianne Moore’s Montauk Sanctuary
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Nick Haramis | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +34 min
— HANYA YANAGIHARASpeak Softly In a wild meadow by the sea, Julianne Moore and Bart Freundlich’s Montauk house uses just a few materials to say many things. In Moore’s office, a Pierre Jeanneret desk and chair, an Alvar Aalto stool and a Willy Van Der Meeren cabinet. In the oak-paneled living room of Justinian Kfoury’s apartment in a townhouse on Washington Square Park, an Audubon-style print and a Hans Wegner Papa Bear chair. A view of the double-height living room from the curved balcony on the third floor. A sculpture by Huma Bhabha and a configuration of five Isamu Noguchi L7 pendants in the landing that separates the primary suite from the living room.
Persons: it’s, Mishan, there’s, , Julianne Moore, Bart Freundlich’s Montauk, Bart Freundlich’s, Moore, Tom Volk, Oliver Freundlich, Anne’s, Pierre Jeanneret, Alvar Aalto, Willy Van Der, Ori Gersht, she’s, ” It’s, , , Bart Freundlich, Tomas Maier, Bottega, Andrew Geller, Norman Jaffe, Freundlich, ” Moore, Moore’s, Liv, Caleb, Robert Gurr, Isamu Noguchi, Pierre, Noguchi, Alma Allen, Joseph Dirand, Oliver, “ I’m, ” Oliver, grins, MOORE, Anne Love Smith, Massimiliano Locatelli, Daniel Romualdez, Vincent Van Duysen, Charlotte Perriand, Pierre Chapo, Willy Van Der Meeren, Friedrich Kunath, Mark Wilson, Donald Judd, Wilson, Mario Bellini, Karl Springer, Rogan Gregory, Nancy Pearce, Oscar, Alice ”, Alexander Calder, Andrea Zittel, JB Blunk, AFTRA, Hope, It’s, ‘ You’re, ’ ”, Justinian, Hans Wegner Papa Bear, Paavo, Marc Hundley, that’s, Adriana Lara, Nicholas Krushenick, Justinian Kfoury, downtowners, He’d, Trish Goff, Kfoury, Leonid Berman, Jelto ”, Tomma Abts, Paul Cadmus, Edith Wharton, Henry James, Paul van der, ” Kfoury, Joe Roberts, Mary Cameron Goodyear, Kfoury’s, He’s, Wolfgang Tillmans, they’d, Lorna Simpson, Misha Kahn, Michael Anastassiades, Glenn Ligon’s, Frank Bowling, Piet Hein Eek, Miriam Cahn, Paul Pfeiffer’s, Leah Panlilio, Tal Schori, Rustam Mehta, Adam Pogue, Constantino Buccolieri, Michael Kirkland, Cy Twombly’s, Ho, Huma Bhabha, Nairy Baghramian, Coco Fusco, Robert Vinas Jr, Duro Olowu, Mark Ellison, Adam Marelli, Bob Chan, Isamu Noguchi Akari, Danh Vo, Nairy, , Laura Mac Donald, Theaster Gates, Frank Lloyd, Kirkland, Ettore, Parsons, Jasper Johns, Merce Cunningham Organizations: Manhattan’s, Yorkers, that’s, Hamptons, WHO, Writers Guild of America, SAG, , Audubon, Washington, East Village, brac, AS, Fifth, Fort Standard, GRT Architects, Architects, Walt Disney Concert Hall, Soane Britain Locations: New York, Paris, London, Rome , New York, It’s, Washington, Manhattan, Harlem, Montauk, American, Chinatown, York, N.Y, Summerhill, Long, Fort Pond, New York City, Pond, North Carolina, Morentz, Scottish, Japanese American, Belgian, East Hampton, Japan, , California, Swiss, New York’s Washington, Kennebunkport, England, East, Boston, Lebanon, Maine, Vermont, Venice, Moroccan, North, Kfoury’s, New York’s Harlem, Westchester County, Brooklyn, Italian, Finnish, Rome, Los Angeles, Korean, Berlin, Iranian, Chicago
Inside the Elaborate, Enviable Design of Three New York Homes
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +34 min
If You Can Make It Here Great design for a great city (New York, of course — where else?) In the oak-paneled living room of Justinian Kfoury’s apartment in a townhouse on Washington Square Park, an Audubon-style print and a Hans Wegner Papa Bear chair. “She was eccentric, grand, but not afraid of making weird decisions about design.” In the living room, a 1975 Leonid Berman painting of the Venice Lagoon hangs between the French doors. A view of the double-height living room from the curved balcony on the third floor. A sculpture by Huma Bhabha and a configuration of five Isamu Noguchi L7 pendants in the landing that separates the primary suite from the living room.
Persons: it’s, Mishan, there’s, , Justinian, Hans Wegner Papa Bear, Paavo, Marc Hundley, that’s, Adriana Lara, Nicholas Krushenick, , Justinian Kfoury, downtowners, He’d, Trish Goff, Kfoury, , Leonid Berman, Jelto ”, Tomma Abts, Paul Cadmus, Edith Wharton, Henry James, Paul van der, ” Kfoury, Joe Roberts, Mary Cameron Goodyear, Kfoury’s, He’s, Wolfgang Tillmans, they’d, It’s, Lorna Simpson, Mario Bellini, Misha Kahn, Michael Anastassiades, Glenn Ligon’s, Frank Bowling, Piet Hein Eek, Miriam Cahn, Paul Pfeiffer’s, Leah Panlilio, Tal Schori, Rustam Mehta, Adam Pogue, Constantino Buccolieri, Michael Kirkland, Alvar Aalto, Cy Twombly’s, Ho, Huma Bhabha, Isamu Noguchi, Nairy Baghramian, Coco Fusco, Robert Vinas Jr, Duro Olowu, Mark Ellison, Adam Marelli, Bob Chan, Isamu Noguchi Akari, Danh Vo, Nairy, , Laura Mac Donald, Theaster Gates, Frank Lloyd, Kirkland, Ettore, Parsons, Jasper Johns, Merce Cunningham, Julianne Moore, Bart Freundlich’s Montauk, Bart Freundlich’s, Moore, Tom Volk, Oliver Freundlich, Anne’s, Pierre Jeanneret, Willy Van Der, Ori Gersht, she’s, ” It’s, Bart Freundlich, Tomas Maier, Bottega, Andrew Geller, Norman Jaffe, Freundlich, ” Moore, Moore’s, Liv, Caleb, Robert Gurr, Pierre, Noguchi, Alma Allen, Joseph Dirand, Oliver, “ I’m, ” Oliver, grins, MOORE, Anne Love Smith, Massimiliano Locatelli, Daniel Romualdez, Vincent Van Duysen, Charlotte Perriand, Pierre Chapo, Willy Van Der Meeren, Friedrich Kunath, Mark Wilson, Donald Judd, Wilson, Karl Springer, Rogan Gregory, Nancy Pearce, Oscar, Alice ”, Alexander Calder, Andrea Zittel, JB Blunk, AFTRA, Hope, ‘ You’re, ’ ” Organizations: Manhattan’s, Yorkers, that’s, Audubon, Washington, East Village, brac, AS, Fifth, Fort Standard, GRT Architects, Architects, Walt Disney Concert Hall, Soane Britain, Hamptons, WHO, Writers Guild of America, SAG, Locations: New York, Paris, London, Rome , New York, It’s, Washington, Manhattan, Harlem, Montauk, American, Chinatown, York, New York’s Washington, Kennebunkport, England, East, Boston, Lebanon, Maine, Vermont, Venice, Moroccan, North, Kfoury’s, New York’s Harlem, Westchester County, N.Y, Brooklyn, Italian, Finnish, Rome, Los Angeles, Korean, Berlin, Iranian, Chicago, North Carolina, California, Summerhill, Long, Fort Pond, New York City, Pond, Morentz, Scottish, Japanese American, Belgian, East Hampton, Japan, , Swiss
"The inflation momentum is simply too strong for the ECB to pause," Danske Bank economist Piet Haines Christiansen said. In contrast, markets have fully priced in unchanged rates at next week's meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which started raising rates earlier and has moved higher than the ECB. "We doubt that this will be possible and expect that a decision to hold rates steady today would mark the end of the tightening cycle." The euro zone's biggest economy, Germany, is bearing the brunt of an industrial slump and heading for recession, according to several forecasts. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a news conference at 1245 GMT.
Persons: Piet Haines Christiansen, Dirk Schumacher, Christine Lagarde, Catherine Evans Organizations: ECB, European Central Bank, Reuters, Danske Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Services, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany
The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro faces a dilemma. "The inflation momentum is simply too strong for the ECB to pause," Danske Bank economist Piet Haines Christiansen said. Just 14 months ago, that rate was languishing at a record low of minus 0.5%, meaning banks had to pay to park their cash securely at the central bank. The euro zone's biggest economy, Germany, is bearing the brunt of an industrial slump and heading for recession, according to several forecasts. On Thursday, the ECB is also expected to cuts its growth projections for this year and next, leading some economists to argue it should hold off from raising rates this month.
Persons: Piet Haines Christiansen, Dirk Schumacher, Catherine Evans Organizations: ECB, European Central Bank, Reuters, Danske Bank, Services, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024. (This story has been corrected to clarify that Aviva favours a small overweight in European bonds, not longer-dated euro zone bonds, in paragraph 19)
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, , Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, ” Aviva’s Hutchings, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management, Aviva Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Another inflation hawk, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann, said the ECB could deliver “another hike or two”. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, , Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, Aviva’s Hutchinson, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian
The Netherlands is sending up to 42 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help aid its war against Russia. The event marked the arrival of the first bodies of the victims of flight MH17, which was shot down over Russian separatist-controlled territory, killing all 298 passengers, including 196 Dutch nationals. Matthew LotzColijn said the tragedy also helped Dutch people contextualize Russia's war on Ukraine. REUTERSBut while the delivery of F-16 jets may seem symbolic, Colijn said it was largely a pragmatic move. The Dutch defense ministry has long been planning on phasing out its aging F-16 fleet, which it has been replacing with F-35s.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Mark Rutte, Chris Colijn, Matthew Lotz Colijn, Rutte, doesn't, Colijn, Piet Ploeg, Ploeg, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia Paul van Hooft, van Hooft, Van Hooft, I'm Organizations: Russia, Eindhoven Airbase, Service, Eindhoven, Malaysia Airlines Amsterdam, Ukraine —, Reuters, RTL Nederland, US Air Force, Fighting Falcons US Air Force, Tech, REUTERS, MH17, Foundation, Dutch, Hague, Strategic Studies Locations: Netherlands, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Kuala Lumpur, Russian, Russia
"It may just be lucky that a global demand slump or non-policy related domestic forces are driving inflation lower." This disconnect led the German central bank to issue a warning to peers this week that a tough task may still lie ahead for policymakers. "The impression took hold that inflation rates will nonetheless persist for longer above the rates targeted by central banks," the Bundesbank said. Indeed, longer-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and the euro zone remain above the banks' 2% targets. But even in the best case, weaker growth will reduce demand for imports and complicate the global outlook.
Persons: JACKSON, Steve Englander, Piet Haines Christiansen, Philip Lane, Lane, Niels Graham, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Toby Chopra Organizations: Standard Chartered, The Bank of England, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Danske Bank, U.S, People's Bank of, Atlantic Council, Capital Economic, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, German, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Jackson, People's Bank of China, China
CNN —In July, Taylor Swift had a surprise for fans at her “Eras” tour stop in Kansas City. She premiered a new music video for the song “I Can See You,” and invited Joey King and Taylor Lautner, who star in the video, out on stage with her. While King, star of “The Kissing Booth” and “Bullet Train,” is used to fans, she said this was something entirely different. But it was incredible to just have that experience and feel that energy coming at you.”(from left) Presley Cash, Taylor Swift, Joey King and Taylor Lautner speak onstageat The Eras Tour on July 7 in Kansas City, Missouri. While discussing all things Swift, King was sitting in a break room at a local Los Angeles animal shelter, where she has been volunteering as a pet photographer as part of Hill’s Pet Nutrition for their Clear The Shelters campaign.
Persons: CNN —, Taylor Swift, , Joey King, Taylor Lautner, Booth, ” King, , Swift, ’ ”, Presley Cash, John Shearer, you’re, King, Taylor, Steven Piet, Jesse James, Jesse’s, she’s, Piet, “ I’m Organizations: CNN, Nutrition, Locations: Kansas City, Kansas City , Missouri, Los Angeles,
Isla del Rey, Menorca CNN —On the tiny Menorcan island of Isla del Rey, Christina Quarles is sitting under a canopy of olive trees. “Coming in on a boat is like a moment of meditation to prepare yourself to see art,” she added. Christina Quarles' show 'Come In From An Endless Place,' is on at the Hauser & Wirth gallery on the Spanish island of Menorca until October 29, 2023. The new Menorca Hauser & Wirth gallery was once a dilapidated 18th century naval hospital. I’ve found it to be a very beautiful parallel.”“With Christina, it’s difficult to separate the artist from the work,” said Bardaouil.
Persons: Menorca, Isla del Rey, Christina Quarles, Hauser & Wirth Menorca, “ It’s, , Quarles, Piet Oudolf, Damian Griffiths, Wirth, , ” Quarles, givens, , Menorca Hauser, Wirth “ She’s, Sam Bardaouil, Bardaouil, Quarles ’, Mar Rescalvo Pons, Fredrik Nilsen, Wirth Quarles ’, I’ve, there’s, Christina, it’s Organizations: del, Menorca CNN, Hauser &, Hauser, Wirth, , Venice Biennale, Sotheby’s, CNN, Hamburger Bahnhof, Hauser & Wirth Locations: Isla del, Los Angeles, Swiss, London, New York, Hong Kong, Menorca, Chicago, Venice, York, Berlin, gesturally
The country has received three international bailouts from the euro zone and the IMF worth 280 billion euros ($308 billion) since 2010. "The Greek (bond) market is not so liquid and tends to be more volatile, but we have a lot of good news. The Greek economy is still heavily exposed to volatile sectors like tourism or shipping, but it is less sensitive to manufacturing headwinds. The premium, or spread, of Greek government bond yields over those of Spain recently fell to its lowest since 2008 at around 27 basis points . Across southern Europe, only Portugal and Spain trade at a smaller premium to Germany - the euro zone benchmark - than Greece.
Persons: Athanasios, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Goldman Sachs, Filippo Taddei, Piet Haines Christiansen, Giorgia Meloni, Mario Draghi's, Christoph Rieger, Stefano Rebaudo, Sara Rossi, Amanda Cooper, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Bank of America, Democracy, Analysts, European Recovery Fund, Danske Bank, Italy's, ECB, Italian Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Greece, Spain, Europe, Portugal, Germany, European, Italy, Italian
Dr. Gert ter Haar, a specialist in short-muzzled animals at the AniCura veterinary hospital, widened her nostrils and performed other procedures to improve her breathing. Dogs are being bred for their looks, but people tend to forget about their health, said Ter Haar, who recommended potential pet owners should consult a vet before buying. On many, many organs", Dr. Ter Haar said. Dr. Ter Haar said pugs and French bulldogs are mostly affected, although larger dogs such as boxers and chows can also suffer from overbreeding. Dutch Minister of Agriculture and Nature Piet Adema has drafted a legal change to ban harmful characteristics after a transitional period during which owners of overbred pets will be exempt.
Persons: XXL Pablo, Read, Katja, Ilia, Abby, Gert ter Haar, Ter Haar, pugs, Nature Piet Adema, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Bart Biesemans, Anthony Deutsch, Barbara Lewis Organizations: French bulldogs, Agriculture, Nature, Thomson Locations: Utrecht, UTRECHT, Netherlands, Dutch
There is a transcendent quality to the gardens of the Dutch designer Piet Oudolf, which overtake us with the sense that we have arrived at a place where we would like — and very much need — to spend more time. Drawn into the complex textural mosaic of muted colors, we can exhale. And yet, Mr. Oudolf is quick to point out, his work is the art and craft of garden making. It is not ecological landscape restoration. His medium is naturalistic, yes, but it is not nature.
"It's an incredible time of my life as a young girl, as a South African, as an artist, only joy floods my heart." "This was my audition I guess," said Yende, recalling the evening at Windsor during a backstage interview at the opera house. Yende grew up singing gospel music in church in her hometown of Piet Retief in eastern South Africa. At the coronation, Yende will perform "Sacred Fire", a piece written by composer Sarah Class for the occasion. "Whether you're a king, a princess or just a girl from the tip of Africa singing for the coronation of the king."
CNN —“Pretty, are you sitting down?” South African soprano Pretty Yende was performing in Vienna last December when she received a call from her manager. She had just been booked for the biggest gig of her life: a performance at the coronation of King Charles III. As one of three soloists at the ceremony, it’s thought that Yende is the first African to be invited to perform solo at a British coronation. The coronation will not be the first time King Charles has watched Yende perform; he saw the soprano sing at the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra’s 75th anniversary gala, held at Windsor Castle in April 2022. Pretty Yende performs in "Lucia Di Lammermoor" at the Bastille Opera House in Paris in October 2016.
The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.
[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a news conference following the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPresident Christine Lagarde noted it was impossible to determine the future rate path amid "completely elevated" uncertainty stemming from market ructions. "Given financial instability risks, there's growing uncertainty on future ECB actions beyond this pre-signalled rate hike," said Daniele Antonucci, chief economist and macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said he was sticking to a call for a 4% peak ECB rate. "Unless this turns into a macroeconomic crisis then we are ripe for a sell-off and a repricing of rate hike expectations," he said.
Summary ECB signalled 50 bps hikeMarkets doubt its resolve and price 25 bpsFinancial turmoil seen derailing rate hike plansInflation to stay above target through 2025FRANKFURT, March 16 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers are meeting on Thursday amidst turmoil in financial markets that could force it to divert from plans for another hefty interest rate hike even though inflation remains too high. Now the ECB must reconcile its inflation-fighting credibility with the need to maintain financial stability in the face of overwhelmingly imported turmoil. Complicating its task, the central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro currency has essentially already committed to a 50 basis point increase on Thursday. Money market pricing suggests that investors now see just a 30% chance of a 50 basis point increase, down from as high as 90% early on Wednesday. The peak ECB rate, also known as terminal rate, is now seen at only around 3.25%, down from 4.1% last week, an exceptional reversal in market pricing.
The ECB has contacted banks on its watch to quiz them on their exposure to the struggling Swiss lender, two supervisory sources told Reuters. Money market pricing suggested traders now saw less than a 20% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at Thursday's scheduled ECB meeting. That's down from as high as 90% at the start of the session , when a source-based story saying ECB policymakers were leaning towards a half-percentage-point rate hike was published. While rapidly rising interest rates across major economies have raised concern about potential pressure points, many analysts still expected a large ECB hike given high inflation. Pictet's Ducrozet said the ECB could also ease collateral rules for banks, though not as much as the Federal Reserve.
Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields dropped more than 50 basis points, much more than a drop of 37 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.
Markets remained fragile, with European bank stocks tumbling over 5% on Monday and U.S. banks set to open lower (.SX7P). Markets also moderated their view on UK rates and were pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a 25 bps hike when the Bank of England meets next week. Goldman Sachs said on Sunday the banking stress meant it no longer expected the Fed to hike rates next week. "It's not going to want to go clattering in with another 50 (bps hike) and see some other financial institution getting hosed." A new Fed bank funding scheme aimed at addressing some of Silicon Valley Bank's apparent problems with losses in its bond portfolio is expected to further help with stability for banks and bonds.
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