Win Mcnamee | ReutersForecasters have been really wrong on the economy recently, but it's nothing new: They've always been wrong. — that the economic forecasts of the major Wall Street banks had been "100 percent dead wrong" in the last 18 months. It's true that Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine threw off forecasts, but that's beside the point: Wrong forecasts are the norm, not the exception. The Federal Reserve's own research staff studied the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts from 1997 to 2008 and found that the Fed's predictions for economic activity one year out were no better than average benchmark predictions. The Times story notes other factors that threw off recent economic forecasts: the Russian invasion of Ukraine: being too pessimistic on growth prospects, lack of good data on real-time consumer savings.

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Persons: Win Mcnamee, Jamie Dimon, —, Dimon, He's, Torsten Slok, Russia hadn't, It's, Philip Tetlock, Covid Organizations: U.S . Federal, Washington , D.C, Reuters, JPMorgan Chase, Future Investment, New York Times, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Federal, University of Pennsylvania, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine, U.S