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U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Managing the ballooning debt is more challenging now than when S&P stripped the United States of its AAA rating in 2011. The deficit before interest payments was lower then, economic growth was weak but still higher than prevailing interest rates, and the Fed was buying boatloads of bonds. Interest payments as a share of federal revenue, spending, and the economy are set to reach historically high levels early in the next decade. It's not just the supply of debt that matters - demand to hold that debt is critical.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fitch, Uncle Sam, Carter, Chris Marsh, Bonds, Phil Suttle, It's, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, Fed, Carter Administration, Investors, Reuters, Treasury, CBO, Suttle, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington, United States, Foreign, China, Treasuries, U.S

If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing

The amorphous lag explains the cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and markets that has played out since the central bank began its tightening cycle last year. For their part, markets have long expected the Fed to quickly pivot to a pretty aggressive series of rate cuts, largely to counter the accumulated lag effects of the tightening cycle. Taken at its most literal level, the 500 basis points of tightening since March 2022 - 17 months ago - have still not registered at all. There is a growing body of opinion that the lags have shortened considerably since Friedman shared his 'long and variable' theory. Reuters ImageData on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in June, down from 4.0% in May.

Persons: Keen, Milton Friedman, Friedman, Christopher Waller, Phil Suttle, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

Japan takes center stage on Friday, with the April consumer price inflation report grabbing the data spotlight and the Group of Seven leaders summit in Hiroshima stealing the global political and economic limelight. The broad Topix index hit that milestone this week, and the Nikkei 225 index came within 0.5% of reaching it on Thursday. As Phil Suttle, a former World Bank economist, wrote on Thursday: "Japan is back!" G7 leaders begin a three-day summit in Hiroshima on Friday, with world market attention focused most on what they say about China. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Japan CPI inflation (April)- G7 leaders summit (Japan)- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaksBy Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.

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