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☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

☆ Imagine a better climate pact than COP
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

It’s possible to imagine an alternative, better way to fight climate change. The snag is that China or the United States – which were responsible for 25% and 11% of greenhouse gases, respectively, in 2021 – would have to take the lead. All countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and to aim for 1.5 degrees. That’s the thinking behind the Just Energy Transition Partnerships that the United States and its allies have cut with Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa. For example, Donald Trump, who as president pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, may return to the White House after next year’s elections.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, of, UN, United, Rio Earth Summit, European, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China, African, Initiative, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Nations, Dubai, China, United States, Paris, U.S, Washington, Beijing, European Union, Japan, Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom, Russia, Russian, Xi Jinping . Washington, India, Brazil, Indonesia, African Union, Vietnam, South Africa

☆ Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.

Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard

☆ Private-asset binge exposes insurance to new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The concept is not new: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) has used its insurance premiums to help fund everything from railways to cowboy-boot makers. The prospect of insurance companies buying risky loans or private equity investments has raised eyebrows. Many private credit assets, for example, rely on so-called private letter ratings based on confidential data. Given the private nature of private credit, it’s hard to see from the outside how big these risks are, or where they lurk. Besides, even if the share of life insurance assets that are mis-rated or undercapitalized is tiny, smaller insurers could carry more concentrated risk.

Persons: Blackstone, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Fitch, Kroll, Egan, Jones, DBRS Morningstar, Banks, SVB, Jonathan Guilford, Neil Unmack, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Apollo Global Management, KKR, Global Atlantic, Investments, National Association of Insurance, England’s Everton FC, Rivals, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Athene, P Global, Insurance, SVB, Thomson Locations: Global, Delaware , New York, Iowa, New York, London

☆ Richemont digital strategy goes back to square one
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The logo of the luxury goods company Richemont is pictured at its headquarters in Bellevue near Geneva, Switzerland, June 2, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse Acquire Licensing RightsMILAN, Nov 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Johann Rupert’s digital strategy may be heading back to the drawing board. But even if Rupert can extricate himself from the Farfetch situation, Richemont’s digital plans will still be unclear. In August 2022 Richemont agreed to sell a 47.5% stake in its digital platform, Yoox Net-A-Porter, to Farfetch. Shares in Richemont were up 1.5% by 1100 GMT on Nov. 29.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Johann Rupert’s, Porter, Cartier, Rupert, Farfetch, José Neves, Richemont, Financiere Richemont, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, The Telegraph, Financiere, Telegraph, Thomson Locations: Bellevue, Geneva, Switzerland, Swiss, U.S, YNAP, New York, Richemont

☆ EU watchdogs muck up Amazon’s messy iRobot cleanup
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The concerns speak to ongoing worries over Amazon’s market clout – but if the deal collapses, it’s iRobot shareholders who will suffer more downward suction. The Commission, which is reviewing the deal alongside British and American merger cops, on Monday published its objections. If Amazon is thwarted, investors expect iRobot shares to fall to between $5 and $15. CONTEXT NEWSThe European Commission on Nov. 27 issued a statement of objections regarding Amazon.com’s proposed $1.4 billion acquisition of robot vacuum maker iRobot. iRobot shares fell more than 18% to close at $34.35 on Nov. 27.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, it’s, Carlyle, Amazon.com’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, iRobot, European Commission, British, EU, Amazon, Investors, Commission, Thomson Locations: Staten Island , New York City, U.S, American, Europe, United States, Seattle, iRobot

☆ Warner Bros Discovery boss’s payday is toast
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) chief executive will have to more than double the value of the media company if he wants to collect a lavish $200 million compensation package awarded when Discovery agreed to merge with Warner Media in 2021. The news sent shares plunging 19%, the largest one-day drop since Discovery merged with Warner Media. Its current value is over $18 billion when applying Bernstein’s multiple of 8 times EBITDA. At the end of September, the company had net leverage – after deducting $2.4 billion cash – of 4.2 times EBITDA. Shares of Warner Bros Discovery fell 19% on that day.

Persons: David Zaslav, He’s, Harry Potter, Jefferies, Max, “ Barbie ”, Zaslav, David, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Warner Bros Discovery, Discovery, Warner Media, HBO, CNN, Food Network, TBS, LSEG, Netflix, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HGTV, Thomson Locations: EBITDA

☆ EU is ill-equipped to meet growing global threats
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The snag is that EU countries are ever more reluctant to give up their right to block collective actions. Meanwhile, rivalry between the United States and China – and a green subsidy race between the world's two largest economies – is undermining the world trading system. The response of EU countries to the Gaza conflict has also been shambolic, both individually and collectively. Yet EU countries are also grappling with nationalistic currents, the latest demonstration of which is last week’s election victory by Geert Wilders, the Dutch politician who has long campaigned on an anti-immigrant and anti-EU ticket. But it is not clear that EU countries want to find a way to speed up collective decision-making.

Persons: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Geert Wilders, Olivier Costa, Jan Zielonka, Erik Jones, keener, Annalena, Shahin Vallée, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European, NATO, EU, United Nations General Assembly, Franco, Britain, IF, College of Europe, Oxford University, European University Institute, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States, China, EU, People's Republic, Gaza, Dutch, Washington, Beijing, Germany, France, Denmark, United Kingdom, Berlin, Franco, Russia

☆ The future of interest rates is more surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.

Persons: Claudio Borio, “, ”, Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan

☆ World Bank and kin head for a $100 bln cash call
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

World Bank President Ajay Banga arrives for a signing ceremony with Thailand to host the 2026 International Monetary Fund and the World Bank annual meetings on the last day of this year's meeting, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 15, 2023. REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The World Bank and its fellow institutions are heading for a cash call. The World Bank and its regional peers, such as the African Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank, are well placed to help developing countries craft strategies to develop in a green way. Donald Trump may seem an unlikely supporter of the World Bank if he wins. The People’s Republic, for its part, will want to increase its stake in the World Bank as part of any capital increase.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Susana Vera, Fitch don’t, Chris Humphrey, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, There’s, David Cameron, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Group, FIRST, AAA, Bank, Moody’s, European Bank for Reconstruction, U.S, Thomson Locations: Thailand, Marrakech, Morocco, Washington, United States, China, Britain, Ukraine, U.S, Israel, Republic, United Kingdom, France

☆ Multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

This new-look cap table leaves the U.S. much more vulnerable to the vagaries of foreign investors than before. In a crisis, foreign investors would rush to buy even more U.S. debt. Reuters GraphicsA less orthodox option would be to invest in emerging markets instead. The last time net equity investment in the U.S. NIIP dipped close to negative territory was as the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. In the next six years the U.S. saw net equity outflows equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.

Persons: Hubert Védrine, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, ’, Donald Trump’s, exceptionalism, NIIP, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, French, U.S, United, United States, Treasury, Equity, U.S . Treasury, Japan, Democratic, Cooperation Council, Peterson Institute for International, Fed, ECB ”, Thomson Locations: United States, tatters, United, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, India, Chile, Democratic Republic of, Congo, Washington

U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, who met in San Francisco on Wednesday, may disagree on the terminology. Barely half the manufactured goods imported into the United States from low-cost Asian countries now come from China. Chinese firms have raised just $529 million from initial and secondary stock offerings in the United States in the year to mid-October. But the conscious decoupling between the U.S. and China looks set to continue. Follow @ugalani and @a_fitri_alias on XCONTEXT NEWSU.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on Nov. 15 in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Persons: Xi, Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, friendshoring, China’s Xi Jinping, Breakingviews, Donald Trump, China’s ByteDance, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Una, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: U.S, Economic Cooperation, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, People’s Republic . U.S, People’s, World Trade Organization, Reuters Graphics Reuters, FRAYING FINANCE, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Investment Board, HK, Republican, Reuters Graphics Apple, United, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Filoli, Asia, Woodside , California, U.S, Rights MUMBAI, United States, China, Washington, People’s Republic ., San Francisco, People’s Republic, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, That’s, New York, Greater China, India, TAIWAN, Taiwan, Una Galani, Mumbai, London

☆ COP28’s big challenge: green cash for poor states
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Rather than drawing attention to this paucity of ambition, al-Jaber wants states to commit to trebling global capacity of renewable energy by 2030. Progress in China and the West is largely a function of cash: these regions accounted for 84% of the $1.3 trillion committed to global climate finance in 2022. They calculate that by 2030, developing countries need to invest around $2.4 trillion a year in order to decarbonise their economies. The problem is that the developed world has consistently missed targets to channel climate cash to less developed counterparts. In September al-Jaber announced a $4.5 billion scheme to deploy UAE state cash and private sector resources to help Africa decarbonise.

Persons: al, Jaber, hasn’t, Nicholas Stern, Stern, Ajay Banga, Mark Carney, Shriti Vadera, Larry Fink, Joko Widodo, UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, Nahyan, Breakingviews, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, United, Conference of, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, United Nations, International Energy Agency, The, IEA, World Bank, concessional, Bank, Bank of England, Prudential, BlackRock, U.S, Indonesian, Africa decarbonise, UAE Crown, Thomson Locations: United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, Paris, China, The U.S, British, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa, Vietnam, U.S, Al, UAE, Africa, COP28, Dubai

☆ Europe’s shrinking stash heralds economic trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the interest they earned on their assets increased from 16 billion euros to 66 billion euros in the same period. As a result, euro zone firms’ net interest was negative 19 billion euros in the second quarter of 2023. These financial gains may have helped euro zone growth. A further 700 billion euros matures in 2026. Homeowners with mortgages, which account for around 27% of euro zone households, are yet to feel the brunt of higher rates.

Persons: That’s, Mathieu Savary, Gross, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, BCA Research, Oxford Economics, International Monetary Fund, Oxford, IMF, Thomson Locations: Oxford, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United States, China

☆ The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Ukraine may be heading for a similarly frozen conflict with Russia. So a frozen conflict would help the West achieve – at least partly – its key geostrategic aim: to show hostile powers that it doesn’t pay to invade one of its friends. In a frozen conflict, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in massive fortifications, anti-missile defence systems and technology to deter Russian attacks. ECONOMIC WARIn a frozen conflict, sanctions against Russia would probably remain more or less in place. REBUILDING UKRAINEIt will be harder to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure in a frozen conflict than if there was peace.

Persons: Nuzhnenko, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Valery Zaluzhny, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Tim Ash, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Ukraine's National Guard Omega, Radio Free, Radio Liberty, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Moscow, Hamas, U.S, EU, International Monetary Fund, Kremlin, Investors, BlueBay Asset Management, Soviet, Cyprus, European Commission, West, Thomson Locations: Avdiivka, Ukraine, Donetsk region, Radio Free Europe, Korea, Cyprus, Russia, Kyiv, –, Israel, United States, Moscow, North Korea, Iran, Russian, UKRAINE, West Germany, Soviet Union

☆ Japan has become a gold mine for value investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Having experienced a multi-decade decline after 1990, Japanese stocks have escaped the doldrums. Reuters GraphicsAnother shadow that has long lingered over corporate Japan is management teams which tended to neglect shareholders and prioritise the interests of other stakeholders. METI is also redefining the aim of Japanese companies, says Stephen Codrington, founder of the independent research firm Codrington Japan. Japan, whose regime was formerly unfriendly to equity investors, is moving in the opposite direction, says Drew Edwards, head of GMO Usonian Japan. Japan, as Codrington says, has become a gold mine for value investors.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, “ Stocks, It's, Alex Kinmont, James Montier, METI, Stephen Codrington, Codrington, Toby Rodes, Edward McQuarrie, McQuarrie, Drew Edwards, there’s, Warren Buffett, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Investors, Credit Suisse Global Investment, Nikkei, U.S ., Local, Credit Suisse, Ministry, Economy, Trade, Industry, Electronics, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Investment, Toyota, Investment Fund, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Kaname, Takisawa Machine Tool, managements, Toyota Industries, Santa Clara University, U.S, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S, Europe, Codrington Japan, United States

☆ Hong Kong finance summit tiptoes around China
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

HONG KONG, Nov 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong in November enjoys a pleasant climate that some local managers dub “chairman weather”. Hong Kong is hardly a hot destination for financiers right now. Companies raised just $2.7 billion from initial public offerings in Hong Kong in the quarter, a fraction of previous years. Hong Kong officials including John Lee, the territory’s chief executive, have been sanctioned by the U.S.. Follow @peter_tl on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Global Financial Leaders’ Summit was held in Hong Kong from Nov. 6 to Nov. 8.

Persons: Marc Rowan, Colm Kelleher, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Jane Fraser, Ken Griffin, Hong, John Lee, Eddie Yue, Kung, Zhang Qingsong, Bob Prince, Mark Wiedman, Apollo’s Rowan, UBS’s Kelleher, Joseph Yam, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Apollo Global Management, UBS, Monetary Fund, Companies, Citigroup, Citadel, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong’s HK, Exchange, People’s Bank of China, Bridgewater Associates, BlackRock, Goldman, Bank for International, Global, ’, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, Europe, U.S, China . Hong Kong, China, People’s Republic, Hong, British, Singapore, BLK.N, ”

☆ High bond yields challenge “Pax Americana”
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

There are also many reasons why “Pax Americana” – the period of U.S. dominance since World War Two - is under stress. The combination of high bond yields with a large fiscal deficit and rising sovereign debt is making it harder for politicians to govern the country. If anything, they may have a tougher job to make their fiscal maths add up than the United States because their growth prospects are not as rosy. What’s more, the near-record yield gap with the United States is bringing its own headaches by putting downward pressure on the yuan. These are consolations for the United States as it grapples with the geopolitical consequences of high interest rates.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden’s, doesn’t, Liz Truss, haven’t, Paul Tucker, “, Fitch, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Air Force, Joint Base Andrews, REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, AAA, AA, United, Bank for International, Initiative, Thomson Locations: Lewiston , Maine, Joint Base Andrews , Maryland, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Russia, Britain, Washington, Republic

☆ Rich countries are stumbling into a debt trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Unlike many corporations and households, the U.S. government did not lock in the low interest rates of the last decade by issuing long-dated debt, preferring instead to skew funding towards bills and short-term bonds. The second route out of the debt trap is to target the primary fiscal surplus, choosing a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes that will stabilise the public debt. That leaves the third route to debt sustainability – keeping real interest rates low. But in the short run, it allows a government to tame the debt ratio without fiscal austerity, and even if growth is sluggish. Governments are indeed stuck in a classic debt trap.

Persons: Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kacper, Everett Dirksen, you’re, Dirksen’s, Stanley Druckenmiller, Joe Biden’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan's, NATO, REUTERS, Reuters, Congressional, Office, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Medicaid, Federal, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Vilnius, Lithuania, Illinois, U.S, Britain

☆ Breakingviews: SBF’s guilty verdict will help crypto break free
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Just over a year ago, Sam Bankman-Fried might have been counting his large stash of virtual coins. A Manhattan jury on Thursday convicted the FTX founder of seven counts related to crimes he committed at the helm of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange. With some $8 billion in customer funds stolen, his misdeeds will go down as one of the biggest financial frauds on record. To be sure, the speculative bubble in crypto would probably have deflated even without Bankman-Fried. The bankrupt exchange is also negotiating with three bidders to help it relaunch trading services, Bloomberg reported last month.

Persons: Lewis Kaplan, Sam Bankman, Fried, Jane Rosenberg, FTX, John J, Ray III, Nicolas Roos, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Galaxy Digital, Three, BlackRock, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Manhattan

☆ Morgan Stanley’s new CEO inherits rich pickings
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

A good place to start is outside Morgan Stanley’s home market. Morgan Stanley’s two last big acquisitions were chunky, at a combined $20 billion, but also filled niches. E*Trade, an online brokerage, brought millions of households and company employees that Morgan Stanley hadn’t previously served. Eaton Vance, a U.S. asset manager, peddles investment products that Morgan Stanley now funnels through sales teams in far-flung markets. CEO Jane Fraser shows no inclination to sell private banking, which for now sits within the group’s $756 billion global wealth management bucket.

Persons: Ted Pick’s, Morgan Stanley, Pick, James Gorman, Morgan, Gorman, Germany’s, Britain’s, Morgan Stanley’s, Morgan Stanley hadn’t, Eaton Vance, Smith Barney, watchdogs, Jane Fraser, It’s, Noel Quinn’s, Ping, Colm Kelleher, Ted Pick, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Credit Suisse, McKinsey ., Morgan, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Infrastructure, Citi, U.S, HSBC, HK, UBS, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Asia, Pacific, Japan, India, China, French, Europe, Switzerland, HK, Swiss

☆ China rate scare reminds watchdogs of hidden risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Overnight borrowing rates for some Chinese financial institutions spiked to 50% on Tuesday, according to official interbank data, far in excess of the average rate of roughly 3.6%. In 2012, a national audit confirmed that local governments had amassed up to 10 trillion yuan in debts. Those have since swelled to 92 trillion yuan, per Reuters. The latest liquidity squeeze is a reminder that short-term dangers will complicate any attempts at more drastic surgery on China’s financial system. CONTEXT NEWSOvernight borrowing costs for some Chinese financial institutions jumped to as high as 50% on Oct. 31.

Persons: Xi Jinping’s, Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, People’s Bank of, Financial Work, Central Financial Work Conference, Xinhua News Agency, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, People’s Bank of China, Beijing

☆ Larry Fink’s next M&A may go in surprise direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Reuters GraphicsTIPPING THE SCALESThe shift to low-fee products helped BlackRock’s assets under management swell to more than $9 trillion at the end of September. BlackRock’s history with Blackstone means a reunion with Stephen Schwarzman’s $110 billion firm is a persistent Wall Street rumor. BlackRock’s funds operate under a single name, so uniting with Carlyle (CG.O) or Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would pose a branding challenge. Fink might covet MSCI (MSCI.N), the $38 billion firm which aggregates many of the benchmarks tracked by BlackRock’s ETFs. Given Fink’s long record of pulling off opportunistic and transformational deals, it would be foolish to bet against him springing one last surprise.

Persons: Larry Fink, Fink, Merrill, Rowe Price, Janus Henderson, Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman’s, Carlyle, covet, MSCI, Michael Bloomberg, doesn’t, LSEG –, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum, Streisand Neto Organizations: CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, BlackRock, Blackstone, Barclays Global Investors, Credit Suisse, UBS, nab, Graphics, Apollo Global Management, London Stock Exchange, Thomson Reuters, New, Bloomberg, Wall Street, New York Times, LSEG – Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BlackRock, Boston, Swiss, New York, United States

☆ BOJ chooses slow path out of zero-rate limbo
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Bank of Japan (8301.T) is taking the long road out of zero-interest rate limbo. On the face of it, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his colleagues made few policy changes at their latest meeting. The short-term interest rate remains negative, while the official yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds is unchanged at 0%. However, the real challenge for Ueda is when to end the era of negative short-term interest rates. The BOJ’s nine-member board maintained its target for short-term interest rates of -0.1%.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Susana Vera, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, “, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, HONG KONG, Japan

☆ BYD’s Halloween bonanza spooks rivals
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A BYD U8 is displayed during the Japan Mobility Show 2023 at Tokyo Big Sight in Tokyo, Japan October 25, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - BYD (002594.SZ), (1211.HK) is delivering a fright to its rivals. The company founded by Wang Chuanfu is expanding its portfolio of premium brands, adding new models for its flashy Denza marque. For rivals trying to compete with the $95 billion group, though, that’s scant consolation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, It’s, Wang Chuanfu, Bernstein, that’s, Katrina Hamlin, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, Overseas, Investors, BYD’s, X, Vodafone, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, HK, China, People’s Republic, BYD’s Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Spain

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