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Nvidia earnings results this week are more important to the stock market than the Federal Reserve or even jobs data, according to the options market. But Jensen Huang's company remains crucially important to the market, according to Wall Street firms tracking the options market. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia The options market shows an implied move of 8% for Nvidia, according to Barclays. For investors, how Nvidia moves could determine what is next for a market that has been flagging lately following the postelection rally, according to Bank of America Securities' Asis. Asis recommends hedging against the earnings results in case Nvidia disappoints.
Persons: Jensen, Gonzalo Asis, Asis, Stefano Pascale Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wall, Bank of America Securities, Sunday, Nvidia, CPI, Barclays, Bank of America, Apple, Microsoft Locations: Asis
It's time to buy shares of HVAC company Comfort Systems , according to UBS. "We also expect Manufacturing to benefit from reshoring and an increased emphasis on U.S. manufacturing capabilities, with Manufacturing construction spend now 19% of [nonresidential] construction, nearly doubling from 10% in 2019," he added. "Notably, nonresidential construction spending and manufacturing construction spending have increased 89% and 207%, respectively, since the start of 2015," he said. Among the six analysts covering it, three have a strong buy or buy rating, while the other three have a hold rating, per LSEG. FIX YTD mountain FIX, year-to-date Shares rose nearly 1% in the premarket after UBS' upgrade.
Persons: Joshua Chan, Chan Organizations: Comfort Systems, UBS, Manufacturing Locations: 2024E, 2025E
Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards. Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. Powell added that the calculus of getting the move to neutral rate will be tricky. The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month.
Persons: Powell, Nonfarm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Traders, Federal, Committee Locations: Dallas
Soto, 26, is hands down this winter’s most highly sought-after free agent, valued as much for his elite baseball skills as for his birth date. And in an age of swing-for-the-fences baseball, Soto struck out just 16.7% of the time, while the league whiffed at a 22.2% clip this season. Free agency is “going to be exciting,” Soto told reporters moments after the Yankees lost Game 5 of the World Series, ending the baseball season. The AL champion Yankees had the second-highest MLB payroll, at $309.8 million for their 40-man roster, according to Baseball Prospectus. There's no telling when Soto or other any free agents will come to terms with their 2025 teams.
Persons: Juan Soto, Soto, Al Leiter, Leiter, Shohei, Scott Boras, Ohtani, ” Soto, “ It’s, Aaron Judge, they'll, Bryce Harper, Harper, “ I’m, , Cy Young, Blake Snell, “ We’re Organizations: Major League Baseball, Yankees, American League, Dodgers, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, MLB, baseball's, MLB Network, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Dodgers DH, NL, Soto's, Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies, Big Apple, AL, Baseball, Cleveland Guardians, The Dodgers Locations: Los Angeles, Southern California, Soto's New York, South Philly, San Diego, New York
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings had predicted two additional interest rate trims by the end of 2024 and expect such reductions to continue into 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at this week's November meeting at 98%. The current probability of the benchmark rate being taken down by another 25 basis points at the December meeting is 78%. "The end of financial repression, of zero interest rates and zero inflation, that era is over. Interest rates will be higher, will be challenged around the world.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Saudi Arabia —, aren't, Morgan, CNBC's Sara Eisen —, Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Larry Fink, " Fink, David Solomon, Ted Pick, Pick, Francis Fukuyama Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Fitch, Saudi, Future Investment Initiative, Standard Chartered, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Reuters RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, U.S, BlackRock
The Fed is going to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. Labor market weakness is showing across a number of data points, she said. According to Veronica Clark, deteriorating labor dynamics will force the central bank to cut rates by 50 basis points in December. Her point has grown more evident after October's jobs report underwhelmed expectations with only 12,000 jobs added. AdvertisementThough October's unemployment rate stayed unchanged on a rounded basis, Clark noted that it was it nearly rounded to 4.2%.
Persons: Veronica Clark, It's, Clark, , Reserve isn't Organizations: Citi, Labor, Service, Reserve, Bloomberg
The major stock benchmarks rallied Friday but were lower last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way lower after reaching new highs. Eight other Club names reported earnings last week, including Eli Lilly and Eaton. Despite indications from Big Tech that Nvidia's AI chips will remain in hot demand, the Club stock fell 4.3% for the week. The S & P 500 , which is less tech-weighted, fell nearly 1.4% for the week, making it back-to-back weekly losses for the broader market index. Earnings After analyzing earnings reports from 14 of our portfolio companies last week, there is only one Club name on the docket this week.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eaton, Jim Cramer, financials Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, we'll, Archer, Johnson, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Devices, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, Club, Nvidia, Dow, Intel, AMD, Dow Jones, Visa, American Express, JPMorgan, Bond, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Treasury, White, DuPont, Election, Protection, Electronics, Industrial, Constellation Energy, Marriott, Century Fox, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Goodyear Tire, Cirrus, Diamondback Energy, Daniels, Midland, Apollo Global Management, Ferrari, Restaurant Brands, Emerson Electric, Devon Energy, Novo Nordisk, CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Toyota, American Electric Power Company, Johnson Controls, Dine Brands, Holdings, AMC Entertainment, Qualcomm, Coty, COTY, Energy, Barrick, Halliburton, HAL, Hershey, Air Products & Chemicals, Warner Bros ., Arista Networks, Rivian Automotive, Trade, Icahn Enterprises, Sony, SONY, Paramount, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: BlackRock, Florida, China, Sluggishness, Cleveland, New York City, U.S
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict relatively muted S&P 500 returns over the next decade. AdvertisementMuch has been said about the gloomy outlook for the S&P 500 that some of Wall Street's largest investment banks conveyed in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs said in October that the S&P 500 would return 3% annually, on average, over the next 10 years, underperforming current 10-year Treasury yields. Goldman Sachs"There is little argument that U.S. stock market valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. Investors appeared to do that, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% on Friday to 5,728, 2.3% below all-time highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lance Roberts, Roberts, , It's, Goldman, Sam Kuhn Organizations: JPMorgan, RIA, Service, Bank of America, RIA Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall
Octavio Jones | ReutersExecutives at America's largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles. The word "election" came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500 -listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. The U.S. presidential election is Tuesday Nov. 5. 'Prudent' clientsMultiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients. To be sure, some of the "election" mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care.
Persons: Blythe Andrews , Jr, Octavio Jones, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Richard Tobin, FactSet, John Butters, Harris, Trump, Harry Lawton, Hurricanes Helene, Andrew Watterson, Michael Bayley, Gary Hershorn, Stanley Black, Decker, Donald Allan, Decker's Allan, William Grogan, Jon Vander Ark, Eric Ashleman, hasn't, Nonfarm payrolls, Equifax, Mark Begor, Stephen Squeri, we've, Mark Parrell Organizations: Public, Reuters, America's, CNBC, U.S, Dover, Tractor Supply, Hurricanes, Southwest Airlines, Royal, Hollywood International Airport, Corbis, Republican, Republic, Boeing, Tyler Technologies, American Express, Equity Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Milton, Royal Caribbean, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, America, China
Two starkly different House candidates, in separate races, personify the intensifying ideological partitioning occurring within the once strongly Democratic constituency of Latino voters, whose numbers are growing. Their highly competitive races, along with a few other California congressional races, have pushed Latino voters to the front lines of the bitter fight for control of the House. “We have centered on Latino voters in our campaign,” said Whitesides, whose wife is of Cuban and Salvadoran heritage. In the same poll, 52% of Latino voters in District 27 said they support Whitesides, compared to 24% for Garcia and 24% completely undecided. In the last presidential election, Latino turnout was very high, and now it “actually is approaching the turnout rate for non-Latinos,” Vargas said.
Persons: Rudy Salas, Mike Garcia, Salas, David Valadao, Garcia, Democrat George Whitesides, , Arturo Vargas, , wasn’t, he’d, ” Salas, , aren’t, Valadao’s, Donald Trump, Valadao, Irfan Khan, Luis Alvarado, ” Alvarado, ” Garcia, he’s, Joe Biden, Whitesides, ” Whitesides, George Whitesides, Susan Montoya Bryan, Kamala Harris, Biden, Harris, Julián Castro, ” Vargas, Harris — Organizations: Democratic, California’s Central Valley ., House, Republicans, Five, GOP, Democrat, NASA, National Association of Latino, Central, , Representatives, Capitol, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Democrats, Republican, Congress, California Republican, Center, Politics, University of Virginia, Los Angeles In, Naval Academy, Navy, Trump, Virgin Galactic, NBC, Latino Community Foundation, Valadao, BSP Research Locations: California’s Central Valley, Los Angeles, California, Five California, Valley, Central Valley, Azores, Hansford, Calif, Los Angeles In California’s, Mexico, Black, Cuban, Salvadoran, homeownership, Upham, N.M
Expect a “noisy” jobs report Friday that will be heavily affected by storms and a labor strike, economists say. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report that the U.S. economy gained 110,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. “Unfortunately, it won’t be easy to interpret the October jobs report,” Chris Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said earlier this month. At 4.1%, the unemployment rate is still historically low, while the rate of inflation has effectively returned to the Fed’s 2% annual target. “Without an increase in hiring, even moderate levels of job losses will likely cause the unemployment rate to pick up.”
Persons: ” Chris Waller, Helene, Milton, Jason Redmond, , Julia Pollak, Pollak, Biden Organizations: Labor Statistics, Boeing, Fed’s, of Governors, International Association of Machinists, Aerospace Workers, Getty, ZipRecruiter, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S . Department of Labor, Citi Locations: U.S, Tuesday’s, Seattle, AFP
Dollar steady as investors eye U.S. jobs report, election
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The U.S. dollar started November off at a lower level after coming under pressure against the yen and euro on Thursday. (Kazuo) Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday. The Fed's monetary policy decision next week comes just days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
Persons: Nonfarm, Tapas Strickland, Kazuo, Ueda's, Morgan Stanley, Takeshi Yamaguchi, Masayuki Inui, Sterling, Rachel Reeves, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump's Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Reuters, National Australia Bank, Gov, U.S, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also was unchanged at 7.7%. In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall. The meager jobs numbers along with wages about in line with expectations help cement another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Helene, Milton, Cory Stahle, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Republican, Bright MLS Locations: U.S
Gold little changed ahead of U.S. payrolls data
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Twenty kilogram gold and silver bricks sit at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Gold traded little changed on Friday as investors refrained from taking big positions ahead of the U.S. payrolls data that could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Spot gold was flat at $2,746.09 per ounce, as of 0235 GMT. Gold prices gained more than 4% in October amid safe-haven flows spurred by the Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty. Zero-yield gold thrives in a low interest rate environment.
Persons: Gold, Edward Meir, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, nonfarm, Meir Organizations: ABC Refinery, Democratic, Republican, Reuters, Traders Locations: Sydney , New South Wales, Australia
Treasury yields rise as investors look to key jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over one basis point to 4.2947%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.1806% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday as investors awaited the all-important October jobs report and digested key economic data released throughout the week. Investors weighed a series of key economic reports published throughout the week, including Thursday's personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge. It is also some of the last key economic data before the U.S. election next week.
Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
JPMorgan's trading desk has some ideas on how much the stock market might move following Friday's all-important job report. Between 120,000 and 200,000 jobs added; 30% chance: This is the so-called Goldilocks print. The S & P 500 should finish the day somewhere between flat and up 0.5%. Below 20,000 jobs added; 5% chance: This should catalyze a large sell-off as a negative nonfarm payrolls print typically front runs a recession. The S & P 500 should pull back somewhere within the range of 0.75% and 1.5%.
Persons: payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Equity
Nasdaq 100 futures advanced Thursday night as traders analyzed major earnings reports in the runup to the all-important jobs report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 15 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures also gained 0.1%. Those moves come after a downbeat session on Thursday, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dragged down by post-earnings slumps in Microsoft and Meta Platforms . The Dow led the major indexes down with a slide of 1.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shed 1% and 0.5%, respectively. On the earnings front, traders will monitor Friday reports from Chevron and Exxon Mobil .
Persons: Dow, Jay Hatfield, Dow Jones, nonfarm Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Infrastructure Capital Management, Chevron, Exxon Mobil
Safe-haven gold on track for best month in seven
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold Bullion from the American Precious Metals Exchange seen in this picture taken in New York on Sept. 15, 2011. Gold prices climbed to a record high on Thursday and were headed for their best month in seven on safe-haven demand ahead of the U.S. presidential election, while investors awaited U.S. inflation report for clues on the interest rate path. Spot gold was steady at $2,786.89 per ounce, as of 0254 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,790.15 earlier in the session. "Traders want to buy gold whether it rises or falls, and that has kept retracements small and consolidations tight. All three metals were on track for a monthly gain.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Kyle Rodda, Matt Simpson, Bullion Organizations: Precious Metals, U.S, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Capital.com, Index Locations: New York, U.S, United States, Index ., China
Goldman Sachs estimates that Helene could shave as much as 50,000 off the payrolls count, though Hurricane Milton probably happened too late to impact the October count. The Boeing strike, meanwhile, could lower the total by 41,000, added Goldman, which is forecasting total payrolls growth of 95,000. Data has been solidYet indicators leading up to the much-watched jobs report show that hiring has continued apace and layoffs are low, despite the damage done from the storms and the strikes. Still, the White House is estimating that the events cumulatively may hit the payrolls count by as many as 100,000. The "disruptions will make interpreting this month's jobs report harder than usual," Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Wednesday.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Dow Jones, Milton, Michael Arone, Arone, Goldman Sachs, Helene, Hurricane Milton, Goldman, Jared Bernstein Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, State Street Global Advisors, of Economic Advisers Locations: Catskill , New York, U.S, Hurricane
An executive at Palo Alto Networks also posted about it on LinkedIn , without mentioning the dollar amount and duration. These headlines could be helping support shares of Palo Alto in Thursday's down market. Palo Alto did not respond to CNBC's request for comment on the licensing agreement. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, nonfarm, Morgan Stanley, Palo, Nikesh Arora, , Missouri —, we're, Jeff Marks, Abbott, we'll, payrolls, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Meta, Boeing, Reserve, Palo Alto Networks, Department of Defense, Palo, Abbott Labs, NEC, Judicial, Apple, Coterra Energy, Intel, . Steel, Juniper Networks, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, LyondellBasell, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Palo Alto, Thursday's, Missouri
ADP said it was the best month for job creation since July 2023. “Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. Job creation was strongly concentrated in companies with 500 or more employees, which added 140,000 of the total. The ADP report traditionally tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Services. The BLS report showed private job gains of 223,000 in September and 254,000 total payrolls growth.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson, Helene, Milton — Organizations: North Carolina, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Bureau of Labor Services, ADP, BLS Locations: U.S, Florida, North
CNN —Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report. Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show. Pantheon Macroeconomics is sticking with its forecast of 100,000 payroll gains, according to an investors note sent Wednesday. And while a resurgence in the labor market could raise concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, October’s ADP data showed otherwise, Richardson said.
Persons: Nela Richardson, Hurricane Helene, ADP’s tabulations, ” Richardson, Richardson, , Irma, ” Samuel Tombs, Milton …, Wednesday’s, Organizations: CNN, ADP, Boeing, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Pantheon, Companies, Federal Reserve Locations: Hurricane Milton, Carolina, Florida, Milton, South Atlantic
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell more than 4 basis points to 4.232%, after briefly rising above 4.3% in the previous session to notch its highest level since July. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down over 2 basis points at 4.094%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday, with investors poised to scrutinize economic data for further clues on the rate cut outlook. Ahead of the all-important October jobs report at the end of the week, investors will monitor a fresh batch of economic data on Wednesday. The Fed joined several other major central banks in easing monetary policy when it lowered rates by 50 basis points in September.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce Department, Traders, Federal Reserve, Fed
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