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Bret: One of the most interesting recent stories in The Times is an analysis of undecided voters, and their concerns about Trump and Harris. One of most important findings — one that should really concern the Harris campaign — is that a high proportion of undecided voters are young, low-income and Black or Latino. The concerns about Trump are familiar: “too extreme,” “angered easily” and so on. But some of the concerns about Harris were more surprising. The other part, I think, is that Harris hasn’t done enough to reassure undecided voters that she’s decisive, knowledgeable and well-advised.

Persons: Bret, Harris, —, Trump, ” “, ”, Gail, That’s, Barack Obama, Warren Buffett, Paul Volcker, Colin Powell, Robert Rubin, David Petraeus, Liz Cheney, she’s Organizations: Times, Trump Locations: North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona

☆ Ron Insana: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell unnecessarily complicated the outlook for interest rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In the spirit of ESPN's Monday Night Countdown, a word to Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell ... "C'Mon Man!" While the markets have rebounded nicely on Thursday, it seems to me that Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell unnecessarily complicated the outlook for interest rate policy on Wednesday by saying the Fed will decide, meeting by meeting, what to do next. Meanwhile, long-term interest rates, after having fallen for weeks in anticipation of a half-point cut, which the Fed delivered, have actually moved up a bit. I'm not entirely certain but I suspect it's the lack of clear direction on future rate policy that is the culprit. In those days, the Fed was loathe to discuss its actions publicly and only signaled to markets what it had done with respect to interest rate policy a considerable time after the action was undertaken.

Persons: Jay Powell, Powell, Paul Volcker Organizations: Federal, Fed Locations: China

☆ Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, ”, Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, “, Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan

☆ Why the Fed is being blamed for the historic stock-market plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.

Persons: —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington

☆ The US economy may be barrelling towards stagflation, an outcome worse than recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The provides the backdrop for stagflation, which can't be combated with rate cuts. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . With additional help from high government spending and the dollar's de-coupling from gold, inflation surged into double digits, while the economy tumbled. The period was so tumultuous that it undid long-standing macroeconomic theories, and required the Fed to step up its role in the economy.

Persons: —, David Donabedian, It's, listlessness, stagflation, Paul Volcker, Jamie Dimon, we've, Pooja Sriram, Powell Organizations: Service, CIBC Private Wealth, OPEC, Economic, of New, Barclays Locations: of New York

☆ Why the Fed keeping rates higher for longer may not be such a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, —, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC

☆ The Fed is determined not to reduce interest rates too soon, experts say — a mistake the central bank has made in the past
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowThe risks of allowing inflation to persist still far outweighs the risk of triggering a recession. Mark Higgins author of "Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future." This time around, the central bank is likely to remain extremely cautious, Higgins said, even if that means holding rates higher for longer. The Fed's 'two major mistakes'"The Fed has made two major mistakes in its history," according to Higgins, and those two missteps still influence the central bank's moves today. Indeed, Volcker was able to ultimately break inflation, but shockingly high interest rates also brought the economy to its knees (and the housing market to a standstill).

Persons: Mark Higgins, Higgins, Paul Volcker, Volcker Organizations: Fund, CNBC, Fed

☆ Robert Kiyosaki, David Einhorn, and Gary Shilling are all worried about inflation — and so is the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.

Persons: —, Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed

☆ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Will Help Decide the 2024 Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Beyond the academic argument, whether the Fed cuts interest rates has a significant political bearing this year. Voters are unhappy about higher prices, and they feel weighed down by high interest rates, too. Interest rates may seem abstract, but they can have a real impact on how people view their financial situations. But lowering interest rates should make people feel better about economic conditions and could give Democrats and Biden a boost. He's well aware lower interest rates would boost the economy, lift people's moods, and, ultimately, help the party in charge.

Persons: Jay Powell, — Donald Trump —, Powell, Joe Biden, Patrick McHenry, McHenry, Skanda Amarnath, it's, Larry Summers, Biden, Amarnath, — Trump, Hillary Clinton's, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Paul Volcker, Volcker, shied, Trump, Elizabeth Pancotti, Sarah Binder, Binder, what's, They've, Diane Swonk, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal, Trump, Republican, Financial Services, Fed, Roosevelt Institute, George Washington University, Reserve, KPMG US, Business Locations: North Carolina, It's, America, Roosevelt

☆ How empty office space became the new bogeyman on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And yet Wall Street is suddenly freaking out about bad real estate loans and empty office buildings. One regional lender — New York Community Bancorp — has seen its stock price implode and its credit rating slashed to junk in part because of its exposure to bad office loans. Japan’s Aozora Bank startled investors by blaming bad loans linked to US offices for a projected loss. That’s a major problem for an industry like real estate known for piling on debt. Importantly, Zandi said these bank failures will be limited to smaller lenders — the ones sitting on suddenly shaky office loans.

Persons: —, ” they’re, It’s, ”, Ed Mills, Raymond James, gameplan, Paul Volcker, That’s, Spencer Platt, ” Alessandro DiNello, NYCB, Powell, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, “, ” Mills, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Zandi, ” Banks Organizations: New, New York CNN, —, York Community Bancorp, Japan’s, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Regulators, New York Community Bancorp, York Community Bank, Getty, Moody’s, CNN Locations: New York, sweatpants, Washington, Brooklyn, New York City

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ Why it could be a 'lose-lose' situation for Wall Street when the Fed finally does cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's outlook on Fed rate cuts is setting the stage for a "lose-lose situation," says Deutsche Bank macroeconomic strategist Henry Allen. Indeed, the last four times we've seen rate cuts that fast, it's been because of the most recent four U.S. recessions," he wrote. To be sure, rapid rate cuts without a preceding recession isn't an impossible scenario, but that doesn't mean it's likely either, Allen noted. Paul Volcker's chairmanship of the Fed in the 1980s, for example, saw steep rate cuts, although that followed a period of extremely restrictive monetary policy. "[It's] hard to see how both rate markets and risk markets can both continue to thrive as they have recently," Stanley said.

Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Paul Volcker's, Allen isn't, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Stocks, Deutsche Bank's Allen Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Markets, Federal, Traders, Santander U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, Vietnam

☆ Jay Powell wants to be remembered as Paul Volcker not Arthur Burns: Former Fed Governor Kroszner
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJay Powell wants to be remembered as Paul Volcker not Arthur Burns: Former Fed Governor KrosznerRandy Kroszner, former Federal Reserve governor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the latest economic data, the Federal Reserve's upcoming playbook, and whether the Fed will weigh the weaker economic data even more.

Persons: Jay Powell, Paul Volcker, Arthur Burns, Kroszner Randy Kroszner Organizations: Former, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ The Federal Reserve Has Frozen Our Housing Market - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Daniel Alpert | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve’s relentless attack on inflation is jeopardizing our housing market. The Fed should immediately reverse course and buy mortgage securities to help moderate consumer mortgage rates. This will allow the Fed to raise non-housing interest rates, if necessary, while also allowing the housing market to resume functioning normally again. The central bank raised its key federal funds policy interest rate to a level about 22 times what it was previously in less than 18 months. In normal times, higher Treasury rates, which make mortgages more expensive, divert household income to mortgage payments and away from other purchases, dampen home buyer demand and, ultimately, lower home prices.

Persons: Paul Volcker Organizations: Fed

☆ Brace for 8% mortgage rates to drag the US housing market into a 1980s-style recession, Wells Fargo warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US housing market looks like it's headed for a recession, Wells Fargo has warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hikes could be about to trigger a housing-market recession that echoes the slowdown of the 1980s, Wells Fargo has warned. "Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms," they added. Please Lower Interest Rates." AdvertisementAdvertisement"The plea for assistance from housing industry participants, both in the early 1980s and more recently, illustrates the severe impact higher interest rates can have on the residential sector," Dougherty and Barley wrote.

Persons: Wells Fargo, —, Charlie Dougherty, Patrick Barley, Freddie Mac, Jackson, Paul Volcker, National Association of Homebuilders, Jerome Powell, Dougherty, Barley Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, Wells, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Locations: Redfin

☆ The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst. The bond rout is worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%. Bloomberg reported losses on Treasury bond with maturities of 10 years or more had notched 46% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged 53%. Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008. While interest rates remain well below that level today, the central bank's aggressive turn toward monetary tightening in the post-pandemic era has caused a similar bond-market rout.

Persons: That's, —, Paul Volcker, Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Bill Gross Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Investors

☆ The Dow has been on a roll not seen in decades. Here's how our 8 stocks in the index have fared
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | In Kevinstankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Over its 1987 streak, the Dow climbed to 2,104.47, from roughly 1,895.95 — a gain of 11%. If the Dow were to finish higher Thursday, it would tie the stock benchmark's longest winning streak ever, which was in June 1897. Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio the Club uses for investing, owns just over a quarter of the stocks in the Dow. Honeywell 's (HON) 2.5% gain amid the Dow's 13-session winning streak is being wiped away by the stock's post-earnings slide Thursday. Microsoft 's (MSFT) roughly flat overall performance during the Dow's streak, squeaking out a just 0.2% gain, is due in large part to the stock's 3.8% decline Wednesday.

Persons: Warren Buffett hadn't, Paul Volcker, Dow, Jim Cramer's, Johnson, —, We'll, Walt Disney, Jim Cramer, Disney, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Woolworth Company, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Johnson, Enterprise, Industrial Caterpillar, Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, Club, Wall Street, Vision, Microsoft, MSFT, CNBC, Street Bull, Financial, Getty Locations: New York City

If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

Even taking into account the dotcom bust and market crash following the 1999-2000 cycle, stocks still shone brighter. The average return of a 100% equity portfolio was 12.75%, an all-bond portfolio returned 9.10%, and a 60/40 portfolio generated 11.09% on average. Equities returned around 26% in the year after the Fed stopped tightening, bonds between 6-8%, and a 60/40 portfolio around 18%. Blended together, a 60/40 portfolio generated double-digit returns after five of these six cycles, including 25% in the mid-1990s. No two economic cycles, Fed reaction functions, inflationary dynamics or asset price dynamics are the same.

Persons: Joe Kleven, Kleven, Paul Volcker, Shelly Simpson, Simpson, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, NYSE, Mega Tech, ICE, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

LONDON/HONG KONG, July 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks held steady on Tuesday, as investors balanced the inflationary force of rising oil prices with hopes that central banks would not over-tighten monetary policy into a potential recession. Earlier in the session, Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 4.1%, saying it needed time to assess the economic impact of its rate hikes so far. Complicating the outlook for inflation, oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude futures climbed 0.6% to $75.09 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude adding the same amount to $70.23. "At least the improved supply-demand imbalance seems to be having an effect on price pressures," Capital Economics global economist Ariane Curtis said.

Persons: Europe's, Brent, Ariane Curtis, Curtis, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Schatz, Paul Volcker, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Himani Sarkar, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Wall, West Texas, Institute of Supply Management, Economics, Asia, BNP Paribas, Treasury, Independence, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Singapore

☆ Stocks dip, dollar steadies as investors seek rates clarity
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Xie Yu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.1%, by Tuesday mid-morning. Japan's Nikkei share average (.N225) fell 1.1% as investors exited some bullish positions after the benchmark index closed at a 33-year high in the previous session. Geopolitical tensions also persist, he noted, with China's export controls on minerals adding more uncertainty around global trade relations. In the currency market, the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose slightly to 102.97. The Treasury market is shut Tuesday for Independence Day.

Persons: Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Paul Volcker, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S ., U.S, Independence, Wall, Nikkei, Treasury, Federal, Asia, BNP Paribas, Brent, . West Texas, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States

☆ Stocks edge higher with Treasury yields in holiday-shortened session
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Apple (AAPL.O) closed down 0.8% on Monday after closing Friday's session with a $3 trillion market valuation. Still, MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) earlier hit its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) also hit a two-week peak closing down. The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.21% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.31%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 1.46% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) added 1.70%. The dollar index rose 0.039%, with the euro down 0.01% to $1.0909.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow, Peter Tuz, Tesla, we're, Paul Volcker, Sterling, May's, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, U.S, Treasury, Nasdaq, Apple, Banks, Chase Investment, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Fed, Key, Bank of Japan, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ., Charlottesville , Virginia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, London, Sydney

☆ Stocks make little progress with Treasury yields choppy in holiday-shortened session
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, U.S. construction spending rose more than expected in May as a severe shortage of houses boosted single-family homebuilding. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.21% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.29%. U.S. Treasury yields were last up but lost ground earlier after the economic data showed the manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Gold prices advanced slightly on Monday as weaker economic readings cast doubts over whether the Federal Reserve would stick to its hawkish policy outlook.

Persons: Dow, Paul Volcker, Peter Tuz, we're, Sterling, May's, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Wall, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Fed, Apple, Chase Investment, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Key, Bank of Japan, Federal, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, ., Charlottesville , Virginia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, London, Sydney

☆ US 2yr/10yr yield curve hits deepest inversion in 42 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

July 3 (Reuters) - A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve on Monday hit its deepest inversion since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, in a signal that financial markets see the current Fed tightening cycle eventually tipping the U.S. into recession. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -110.80 basis points in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. The gap was last at -108.30 bp. Reporting by Alden Bentley; editing by Philippa FletcherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, Thomson

☆ Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -109.50 in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. A yield curve inversion - in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities - has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis points at 4.913% in morning trading Monday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.2 basis points to 3.831%.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Ian Lyngen, Treasuries, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, BMO, San Francisco Fed, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S

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