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☆ Investors look beyond Turkey rate hike disappointment, for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"There is a huge gap between rates and inflation, but investors still have faith in this policy shift," Peach said. "They will tolerate a gradual tightening cycle if the key rate rises towards 30% at the end of the year." International bonds are still widely held by foreign investors, though much less so the domestic ones exposed to the lira currency's wild swings. BETTER BUFFERSRising central bank reserves are another positive sign. JPMorgan raised its inflation outlook for Turkey after the rate hike, now expecting year-end inflation at 57% versus 50% previously.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Nick Eisinger, Liam Peach, Peach, Paul McNamara, Emre Akcakmak, It's, Cagri Kutman, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, John Stonestreet Organizations: LONDON, Vanguard, Capital Economics, GAM Investments, Net, East Capital, JPMorgan, United Arab, KNG Securities, Thomson Locations: Turkey, London, United Arab Emirates, Rosario

☆ Turkish lira crashes as new government sets sights on ‘rational’ policies
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded interest rate cuts under Erdogan’s unorthodox policies. Bankers say the lira’s continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported Monday. Erkan would be the country’s fifth central bank chief in four years, after Erdogan fired previous governors as part of frequent policy shifts.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, ”, Tim Ash, “, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM Locations: Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London

Tens of billions of dollars of FX and gold reserves have been used up - another sign of systematic micro-management. Depositors have put some $33 billion into depreciation-protected bank accounts in the last two months, bringing the total to $121 billion - almost a quarter of all Turkish deposits. Benchmark international market bonds have fallen back 10%-15% and key FX market volatility gauges that look a year or more ahead have hit record highs. Eyes are now on the FX reserves and the lira as it surpasses 20 to the dollar, the latest major milestone in its long descent. "These weren't seen as cheap assets, they were seen as jewels," MIT's Acemoglu said of the M&A banking boom heyday.

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