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☆ The 10-year Treasury yield is looming as a potential anchor on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The runup in the 10-year Treasury yield is proving to be more than a short-term fluctuation, and that is starting to draw nervous looks on Wall Street. US10Y 3M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield started to climb ahead of the election and has moved higher still after Donald Trump's victory. With the 10-year yield close to a key psychological level of 4.5%, there is concern that another move higher could lead to a downturn in the stock market. If the 10-year yield does break through the 4.5% level, technical patterns suggest it could make a significant climb. Strong economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence are two reasons why stocks may be able to tolerate higher rates, said Solita Marcelli, UBS global wealth management chief investment officer for the Americas.

Persons: Bond, Donald Trump's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Trump, Senyek, Paul Ciana, Stocks, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research, Bank of America, UBS Locations: 1Q25

☆ How major markets typically perform in the 100 days before a presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Even with election uncertainty, the market typically moves higher in the 100 days leading up to a presidential vote — but it may be a volatile ride to get there. The so-called fear gauge usually declines in the first 20 trading days of the 100-day runup to the election, but typically works higher in the 45-, 60-, 65- and 70 days before election day. The VIX has been higher 6 of the last 8 election years during the closely-watched, 100-day period. Oil prices usually see upward pressure through October, before feeling some weakness in the final weeks before voters cast ballots. In the run up to October, oil prices typically see more of a boost when a Democrat is the sitting president.

Persons: Paul Ciana Organizations: Bank of America, ICE, Democrat, Overseas Locations: U.S

☆ Expect bond yields to peak soon and roll over in second half of 2024, says BofA's Paul Ciana
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect bond yields to peak soon and roll over in second half of 2024, says BofA's Paul CianaPaul Ciana, Bank of America chief technical strategist, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the outlook for yields, how far yields could fall, and more.

Persons: BofA's Paul Ciana Paul Ciana Organizations: Bank of America

☆ Spiking Treasury yields are triggering pain in stocks. 3 experts discuss the renewed threat of bond vigilantes and what else could move markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are now tasked with trying to understand where bond yields go next, and what the drivers of those yields would be. Forget about the technical charts, he says — they are not driving the bond market right now. While Fed policy has consequences for the bond market, investors drive the yield, Johnson said. That means trying to predict where bond yields will settle will be very hard. But fear in the stock market could translate to greed in the bond market as investors flee to safety.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Gordon Johnson, —, Johnson, Ed Yardeni, Kevin Zhao, Liz Truss, Ray Dalio, Fitch, Eric Leve, Michael Gayed, there's, Russell, Leve, hasn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, GLJ Research, UBS Asset Management, CNBC, Greenwich Economic, Tidal Financial, P Bank ETF, BlackRock Locations: Bridgewater, Greenwich

☆ At 5%, this is where chart analysts say the 10-year Treasury yield is headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton

☆ The U.S. dollar just formed a 'golden cross,' which could cause trouble for the rest of the globe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar crossed another key milestone after the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to higher rates, and that could create pressure elsewhere in the global economy. The dollar index hit its highest level since March 9 on Thursday, pushing its 50-day moving average above its 200-day counterpart. That milestone for the moving averages is known as a "golden cross," which typically leads to the dollar climbing further in the coming months, according to Bank of America. The latest leg higher for the dollar appears to be related to the Federal Reserve. A stronger dollar could be bad news for the global economy, where some countries have been struggling relative to the U.S. already.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Ciana, — CNBC's Gina Francolla Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ Don't look now, but oil has formed a 'golden cross' chart pattern
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A golden cross is when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average. Some chart analysts think the 200-day moving average needs to be ascending for it to count as a "golden cross." "On August 24th a golden cross occurred. One way for investors to gain exposure to the move in oil prices is through exchange-traded funds that buy oil futures contracts, such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) . There are also leveraged funds such as the Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) that are riskier bets but could generate big returns if the oil market rally does continue.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Ciana, Chris Verrone, Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Texas, Energy, Saudi Press Agency, United States Oil Fund, Ultra Bloomberg, Oil Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ Here's what's driving the gains for gold as it approaches its highest levels on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's taken gold prices a long time to get this high — 5,000 years, give or take a few centuries — and it looks like the yellow metal could keep climbing. "Gold prices have benefited in recent weeks from safe haven demand amid concerns on the banking sector, as well as a view that the likelihood of a recession (i.e., hard landing) have materially increased. "Lower rates, coupled with inflation still well above the 2% target, would be positive for gold prices," he added. @GC.1 YTD line Gold price this year Tariq expects gold to average $1,925 an ounce in the second quarter, a 10% increase from Credit Suisse's previous target. Roque has a price target at $2,322, implying 14% upside from here.

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