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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRBNZ likely to cut rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting: HSBC economistPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut rates further in 2025, reaching a policy rate of 3.25% by end-2025 or 3% by early 2026.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures retreated 4.63% during U.S. trading hours Tuesday, halting the red-hot rally oil prices have experienced the past week. The central bank's likely to make another half-point cut in November, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, told CNBC. On the back of such turbulence, CNBC Pro asks two strategists whether now's the time to invest in China.
Persons: It's, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Organizations: Central, CNBC, Technology, Nasdaq, Google, U.S . Department of Justice, U.S, The New York Times, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Reserve Bank of New, CSI, CNBC Pro Locations: New York, United States, Jerusalem, Israel, Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, New Zealand, China
HSBC: RBA unlikely to cut rates before Q2 next year
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC: RBA unlikely to cut rates before Q2 next yearPaul Bloxham, HSBC's Chief Economist of Australia, New Zealand & Global Commodities, talks about Australia's struggle with persistent inflation, especially in the housing space.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Global Commodities Locations: Australia, New Zealand
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustralia's central bank will probably be unable to cut rates in 2024, economist saysPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep rates on hold and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank Locations: Australia, New Zealand
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Reserve Bank of Australia probably won't cut rates in 2024, HSBC saysPaul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, says the central bank is "more concerned about inflation being too high than they are about the fact that growth has slowed."
Persons: Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Organizations: Bank of Australia, HSBC Locations: Australia, New Zealand
A commodity "super squeeze" is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained. "If it's a supply constraint that's driving high commodity prices, it's a very different story for global growth," he told CNBC via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are "not as positive." The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Persons: Li Xin, Paul Bloxham, Bloxham, Brian Luke S, Dow, HSBC's Bloxham, Ian Waldie, Brian Luke, Matty Zhao Organizations: Technology, Getty, Visual China, HSBC, CNBC, Paul Bloxham HSBC, Energy, Commission, Commodities, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, of America Securities Locations: SUIXI, CHINA, Anhui, Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province, China, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Red, Australia, Asia, Pacific
Global commodity markets are in a 'super-squeeze': HSBC
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal commodity markets are in a 'super-squeeze': HSBCPaul Bloxham of HSBC explains why supply-side disruptions are the reasons behind the elevation of commodity prices.
Persons: HSBC Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is 'less influential' on Australia's economic growth than in the past, says economistPaul Bloxham, Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities at HSBC, breaks down Australia's quarterly GDP and says the RBA needs to continue raising interest rates to combat inflation.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: China, Global Commodities, HSBC Locations: Australia, New Zealand
For a year, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has been talking of successfully navigating a narrow path to lower inflation while keeping unemployment near 50-year lows. He expects quarterly growth to average just a 0.1% over the next four quarters, with a 50% chance that the economy would enter a recession. Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at investment firm Challenger and a former RBA executive, says the risk of trying to hold on to job gains was that higher inflation expectations hardened and kept the actual inflation rate high. And pushing rates higher is increasing the chance that Australia goes into a recession," said Kearns, who headed the RBA's domestic markets department until earlier this year. A survey of union officials cited by Lowe showed that medium-term inflation expectations have risen to a 3-4% range.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's, Bloxham, Jonathan Kearns, Kearns, Ivan Colhoun, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: CBA, HSBC, SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Global Commodities, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Challenger, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe RBA is trying to 'slow the economy down even further' with another hike, HSBC saysPaul Bloxham of HSBC says the risk that inflation stays "too high for too long" is more than the Reserve Bank of Australia can bear.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank of Locations: Reserve Bank of Australia
Wrapping up its April policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did warn that "some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed" to ensure that inflation returns to target. Markets had been wagering on a pause, while analysts were split on whether the bank would hike again given the still high level of inflation. Three-year bond futures were up 9 ticks to 97.14, with futures now also leaning towards a pause in May, implying hikes are essentially over. "The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt." Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said there isn't sufficient evidence for the bank to change its terminal rate forecast of 3.85%, after Tuesday's pause.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's reopening will prevent Australia from tipping into a 'deeper downturn,' HSBC saysPaul Bloxham of the bank says consumer slowdown will be a drag on Australia's economy, but it will be offset by China's reopening.
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