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Search resuls for: "Paul Krugman"


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Opinion | America Is Still Having a ‘Vibecession’
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
If Donald Trump wins the election, the main reason will surely be that a majority of voters believe that America’s economy is in bad shape. By normal measures, however, the U.S. economy isn’t in bad shape. So much, you may say, for official statistics: If people feel that they’re doing badly, well, when it comes to the economy, the customer is always right. But here’s the kicker: When asked, most Americans don’t say that they’re doing badly. And respondents are typically much more positive about the economy in their own state than they are about the nation’s as a whole.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump Locations: U.S
Opinion | Return of the Inflation Truthers
  + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Inflation swaps, which allow Wall Street in effect to make bets on future inflation, are implicitly projecting just 2.1 percent inflation over the next year. And it’s really hard to deny that inflation is way down from its peak. Yet many Americans don’t believe that inflation has fallen, and there are a number of commentators with large audiences insisting that there has been no improvement. Instead, they became “inflation truthers,” insisting that the benign numbers were fake. Now the inflation truthers are back.
Persons: don’t,
Last week, for the first time in history, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above 40,000. Unlike many right-wing commentators, I don’t consider the stock market the best indicator of the economy’s health, or even a good indicator. The background here is the gap between what we know about the actual state of our economy and the way Trump and his allies describe it. Unemployment has now been below 4 percent for 27 months, a record last achieved in the late 1960s, ending in February 1970. U.S. economic growth over the past four years has been much faster than in comparable major wealthy nations.
Persons: hyperpartisanship, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Dow
Opinion | Beware the Pettiness of the Powerful
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Donald Trump isn’t exactly Don Quixote, but he does have a thing against windmills. Indeed, Trump’s animus toward wind power is one of the strangest obsessions of a man with many unusual preoccupations (toilets! Over the years, he has asserted, falsely, that wind turbines can cause cancer, that they can cause power outages and that wind energy “kills all the birds” (cats and windows do far more harm). Now he says that if he wins in November, on “Day 1” he’ll issue an executive order putting the brakes on offshore wind farm construction. Over the past 15 or so years we’ve seen revolutionary progress in the technology of renewable energy; the idea of an economy reliant on solar and wind power has gone from hippie fantasy to realistic policy goal.
Persons: Donald Trump isn’t, Don Quixote, Trump, It’s
Biden's tariffs on China are a gesture to show the US will not accept another wave of Chinese imports, Paul Krugman wrote in an op-ed. The previous "China shock" was damaging to US employment, given the localized nature of US industry. China is relying on heavy production to manufacture its way out of an economic slump. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. "They're a shot across the bow — a signal that the United States won't accept a second so-called China shock, a surge of imports that could undermine crucial parts of the administration's agenda."
Persons: Paul Krugman, Biden's Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business Locations: China, United
Derek Arthur andGovernor Ron DeSantis of Florida recently signed a bill that bans both the production and the sale of lab-grown meat. In this audio essay, the columnist Paul Krugman argues that DeSantis’s actions represent a window into the modern Republican Party, a party in which “politics is about displaying what kind of person you are and what your allegiance is, as opposed to actually getting policies that work in place.”(A full transcript of this audio essay will be available within 24 hours of publication in the audio player above.)
Persons: Derek Arthur, Ron DeSantis, Paul Krugman Organizations: Republican Party Locations: Florida
His signature legislative achievement, the Inflation Reduction Act — which is actually mainly about fighting climate change — contains several nationalistic provisions designed to limit subsidies primarily to manufactured goods produced in North America. And the Biden administration is now imposing tariffs as high as 100 percent on Chinese exports of electric vehicles and taxes on other imported goods, including semiconductors and batteries. The immediate impact of these tariffs will be small, because the United States currently imports very few of the affected goods from China. They’re a shot across the bow — a signal that the United States won’t accept a second so-called China shock, a surge of imports that could undermine crucial parts of the administration’s agenda. China’s exports of manufactured goods to the United States surged beginning in the 1990s.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, weren’t Locations: U.S, North America, United States, China, United
In fact, I’m monolingual myself, even though my academic work was largely focused on international trade and finance. In my defense, the great bulk of global economic research is published in English; and in general, Americans’ lack of language skills is less important than their insularity, their relative unfamiliarity with what happens and how things work in other nations. Yet many Americans, even supposedly knowledgeable commentators, often seem unaware of both the ways other nations are similar to us and the ways they are different. I’ll come back to that surprising fact, and what it tells us, in a minute. First, let’s talk about some other international comparisons that seem relevant to the current situation.
Persons: Biden Locations: United States
Trump also described inflation as “a country buster” that destroyed Germany, presumably referring to the hyperinflation of 1923, which was the year of Adolf Hitler’s failed beer-hall putsch. Even for Trump, who loves to work up a crowd, that’s too far. President Biden does have an inflation problem, but it’s not a Weimar Germany kind of problem. I won’t get into why Americans are so upset about inflation that they might choose Trump over Biden in November. I want to look at a different question, which is whether inflation would be lower if Trump won.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Adolf Hitler’s, Biden, it’s, States ’, Binyamin Appelbaum, Paul Krugman Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden, Trump Locations: Waukesha, Wis, Germany, Weimar Germany, States
Opinion | Give Me Laundry Liberty or Give Me Death!
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
MAGA Republicans say that America is in crisis: The economy is collapsing while the nation is being overrun by hordes of violent immigrants. But if that’s what you believe, you should be laser-focused on fighting the clear and present danger, right? In April, Republicans planned to vote on a series of more specific bills: the Liberty in Laundry Act, the Refrigerator Freedom Act and more. Should the government be trying to limit home energy consumption? If so, should it do so with efficiency mandates for appliances, or in some other way?
Persons: MAGA, they’re Organizations: MAGA Republicans, Republicans, Appliances, Department of Energy, Liberty, Laundry Locations: America
By normal standards, the U.S. economy continues to look very good. Unemployment has now been below 4 percent for 27 months, and inflation remains fairly low, albeit somewhat higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. But if you say that, you get a lot of pushback; some get angry. Much of that pushback is partisan. Donald Trump described Friday’s jobs report, in which the unemployment rate rose — wait for it!
Persons: Donald Trump, it’s Organizations: Federal Locations: U.S
And at the moment, lab-grown meat isn’t commercially available and probably won’t be for a long time, if ever. Still, if and when lab-grown meat, also sometimes referred to as cultured meat, makes it onto the market at less than outrageous prices, a significant number of people will probably buy it. And it’s at least possible that lab-grown meat will eventually be cheaper than meat from animals. And if some people choose to consume lab-grown meat, why not? Recently DeSantis, back to work as governor of Florida after the spectacular failure of his presidential campaign, signed a bill banning the production or sale of lab-grown meat in his state.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, DeSantis Locations: Florida
Opinion | The Peculiar Persistence of Trump-stalgia
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Real incomes per capita, although lower than they were when the government was handing out stimulus checks, are higher than before the pandemic. But, you say, people feel that they’re worse off — I agree that narrative is floating out there — except overall, they really don’t. I’ve written before about swing-state polls in which solid majorities of voters say that the economy is doing badly, but at the same time comparable majorities say that they themselves are doing well. The widely cited Michigan survey asks respondents whether their financial situation is better or worse than it was five (not four) years ago: 52 percent say better, 38 percent say worse. And again, when voters are asked about their personal well-being as opposed to the state of the economy, they’re relatively positive — although even there, partisanship shades responses.
Persons: I’ve, Biden, Organizations: Trump Locations: Michigan
In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.
Persons: , it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London
Do you remember the economy of the late 1990s? Or if you’re too young to remember it — I hope that’s true for at least some of my readers — what have you heard about it? You probably remember it as a time of prosperity — low unemployment and rapid economic growth combined with low inflation — marred by irrational exuberance in the stock market. What you might not realize is how closely the economy of early 2024 resembles that of the late Clinton years. Notably, unemployment is actually a bit lower now than it was at the end of the roaring ’90s:
Persons: Clinton
Blame the former president's "quack" economic policy and his tendency to deny reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Similar "destructive" policies could be re-enacted in the US if Trump is re-elected in November, Krugman said. AdvertisementSome of Trump's economic policies during his presidency were flawed, Krugman said. If re-elected, Trump has said he plans on cracking down on immigration and imposing tariffs on US imports, especially those from China. "What's really worrisome, however, are indications that a future Trump regime would manipulate monetary policy in pursuit of short-run political advantage, justifying its actions with crank economic doctrines ...
Persons: , Paul Krugman, Krugman, Trump, he's, that's, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business, Federal Reserve, Trump Locations: China, stoke
Opinion | Trump Is Flirting With Quack Economics
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
I wish people would stop calling Donald Trump a populist. He has, after all, never demonstrated any inclination to help working Americans, and his economic policies really didn’t help — his 2017 tax cut, in particular, was a giveaway to the wealthy. But his behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic showed that he’s as addicted to magical thinking and denial of reality as any petty strongman or dictator, which makes it all too likely that he might preside over the type of problems that result when policies are based on quack economics. Now, destructive economic policy isn’t the thing that alarms me the most about Trump’s potential return to power. Prospects for retaliation against his political opponents, huge detention camps for undocumented immigrants and more loom much larger in my mind.
Persons: Rudiger Dornbusch, Sebastian Edwards, wasn’t, , Recep Tayyip Erdogan of, Donald Trump, he’s, Biden Locations: Latin America, Argentina, Venezuela, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, United States
Last week, employees at a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., voted by almost three to one to join the United Automobile Workers. By the numbers, this wasn’t a big deal: It involved only a few thousand workers in an economy that employs almost 160 million people. You can quantify this arc using statistical measures like the Gini coefficient or the ratio of top to bottom incomes. The thing is, that relatively equal society didn’t evolve gradually. Wartime wage and price controls were an equalizing force, but the new equality persisted for decades after those controls were removed.
Persons: Claudia Goldin —, Robert Margo Organizations: Volkswagen, United Automobile Workers Locations: Chattanooga , Tenn, Chattanooga, America
Opinion | Ukraine Aid in the Light of History
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
On Saturday the House of Representatives finally overcame MAGA opposition and approved a new aid package for Ukraine. I’m relieved that a nation under siege will probably — probably — get aid in time to survive, at least for a while, something that was increasingly in doubt given overwhelming Russian artillery superiority. And I’m worried because that faction remains powerful — a majority of Republicans in the House voted against Ukraine aid — and could still doom Ukraine in the years ahead. No, spending on Ukraine isn’t a huge burden on America, coming at the expense of domestic priorities. No, America isn’t bearing this cost alone, without help from our European allies.
Persons: MAGA, Biden, I’m, Vladimir Putin, , Franklin Organizations: Republicans, Lease Locations: Ukraine, America, U.S, Europe, Britain, China, Harbor
The U.S. economy has been far more successful at recovering from the Covid shock than it was in dealing with the aftermath of the housing bubble of the 2000s. As I noted in my latest column, four years after the 2007-9 recession began, employment was still five million below its pre-recession peak. This time it’s up by almost six million. And while there was a wave of inflation, it seems to have broken. This is especially clear if you measure inflation the way other countries do.
Locations: U.S
But there are signs the gauge may now be broken, with many people still gloomy about the economy. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But Main Street has taken a decidedly gloomier view, with recession worries persisting and big-name companies ramping up layoffs. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: it's, , Paul Krugman, Mohamed El, hasn't Organizations: Service, Business
When it comes to economic news, we’ve had so much winning that we’ve gotten tired of winning, or at any rate blasé about it. Last week, we got another terrific employment report — job growth for 39 straight months — and it feels as if hardly anyone noticed. In particular, it’s not clear whether the good news will dent the still widespread but false narrative that President Biden is presiding over a bad economy. Four years ago, the economy was body-slammed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but we have more than recovered. Why, then, are so many Americans still telling pollsters that the economy is in bad shape?
Persons: we’ve, it’s, Biden, pollsters, we’re
China will stagnate if it relies on manufacturing and exports to grow, Nouriel Roubini wrote in Project Syndicate. That growth model is outdated and worked in a time when foreign markets were more open to Chinese products. AdvertisementChina can't grow out of its economic problems if it stays focused on manufacturing and exports, says famed "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. "The old Chinese growth model is broken," the perma-bear economist wrote for Project Syndicate, later adding: "China therefore needs a new growth model concentrated on domestic services — rather than goods — and private consumption." Related storiesWhen China's economy was smaller, this form of growth made sense, as its exports were still manageable for foreign markets, Roubini said.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Doom, , Roubini, Xi Jinping, he's, Paul Krugman Organizations: Project Syndicate, Service Locations: China, Beijing
Opinion | Why Some Billionaires Will Back Trump
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Big Trump rallies aren’t yielding his biggest cash hauls. Which raises the question: Why would billionaires support such a person? Economists, myself included, often remind people that the stock market is not the economy. Low unemployment and rising real wages — both of which, by the way, the Biden economy has delivered, even if many people don’t believe it — have much more relevance to most people’s lives. And although in 2020 Trump predicted a stock crash if Biden won, the market has, in fact, been hitting record highs under the current administration.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Big, it’s, they’ve, Biden, Trump Organizations: Big Trump, Justice Department
It has been a week since the Dali, a container ship, struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. It’s still stuck there, and the images remain amazing, in part because the vessel is so huge compared with what’s left of the bridge. And with the ship and pieces of the bridge blocking the harbor entry, the Port of Baltimore remains closed. Well, it would have been quite a big deal if it had happened in late 2021 or early 2022, when global supply chains were under a lot of pressure. The Dali is no Ever Given, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal when it ran aground in 2021.
Persons: Dali, Francis Scott Key, It’s, what’s, Dali Baltimore Locations: Baltimore, Port, Los Angeles, Dali, East Coast, Suez
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