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Opinion Guest Essay The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesIn almost every presidential battleground state, polling suggests something close to a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. For Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, each could be a crucial building block in a winning swing-state coalition. In 2016, with Mr. Trump in the race, these areas began to march to national trends: Rural areas trended Republican, while Milwaukee’s well-off, close-in suburbs zoomed left. Still, loyalties remain potent in Wisconsin, from Democratic-leaning, ancestrally Scandinavian voters in the state’s rural west to middle-class suburban Republicans outside Milwaukee. Mr. Trump lost Nash County by just 0.2 points in 2020 and Wilson County by three points.
Persons: Sebastian Siadecki, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump ., Harris, Trump, Nate Silver’s, Joe Biden, Badger State . Arizona Battlegrounds, Mark Kelly, Biden, Trump’s, Patrick Ruffini Organizations: The New York Times, Pennsylvania, Keystone, Philadelphia, Democratic, Milwaukee —, Washington, Mr, Republican, Republicans, Milwaukee, Badger State, Senate, Northampton, “ Party of, Populist Coalition Locations: America, Pennsylvania, Appalachia, Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s, . Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee, Badger, Badger State . Arizona, Arizona, Phoenix, Florida and Texas, . North Carolina, North Carolina, Southern, Nash, Rocky, Wilson, Wilson County, Nash County, Northampton, Erie, Bethlehem, Georgia, Brown County, Green Bay, Outagamie County, Appleton, Winnebago County, Oshkosh, Maricopa County
By contrast, the modern day Democrats’ historic success at winning the popular vote hasn’t translated into nearly as much governing power for them. Over this record run of popular vote success, Democrats have already twice lost the Electoral College – and thus the White House – while winning more votes. Amazingly, Republicans won unified control of government in two elections when Democrats won a plurality of the national presidential vote: 2000 and 2016. The Democrats’ popular vote winning stretch began in 1992 with Clinton’s victory over George H.W. The highest share of the popular vote Democrats have won over this period is the 52.9% that Obama garnered in 2008.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D, Roosevelt, , , Paul Pierson, Harris isn’t, Trump, Joe Biden, Harris, Evan Vucci, Grover Cleveland, Kyle Kondik, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Biden, Lee Drutman, Dwight Eisenhower, Eisenhower, Truman, , Pierson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Mark Schiefelbein, George H.W, Clinton, Al Gore, Obama, Hillary Clinton, George W . Bush, William McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt’s, William Howard Taft’s, Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, Herbert Hoover, Harding, Lyndon B, FDR, John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, Michael Tesler, Kondik, that’s, Drutman, Mitch McConnell, ” Drutman, Mitt Romney’s, Nikki Haley, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, centrists, Jim Kessler, Reagan, H.W, H.W . Bush, haven’t, ” Pierson, Ruffini Organizations: CNN, Democrats, Deal, TR Republicans, FDR Democrats, Electoral College –, TR, Supreme, University of California, Electoral, House, Senate, AP, Republican Senate, Democratic, University of Virginia’s Center, Politics, FDR, White, White House, “ Republicans, New America, Republicans, Republican, Dort Financial, Electoral College, Trump, GOP, kinks, Democratic Party, “ Party, The Locations: Berkeley, Butler , Pennsylvania, LBJ, Dort, Flint , Michigan, George H.W . Bush, Bush, Vermont, Arkansas, North Carolina, , , H.W .
Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, , Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, , You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, , Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, , Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania,
Opinion | Is There a Post-Religious Right?
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
My one-liner “captured a widely shared assumption” that Trump’s rise signaled “the birth of an irreligious right animated by white racial grievance,” he wrote. The old religious right may have suffered a fatal blow in 2016. But what succeeded it was not a post-religious racialist party, as some feared and others hoped. was preparing to establish white supremacy now are more likely to denounce its ambitions as “Christian nationalist.” Whatever else one makes of this charge, it implies an acknowledgment that a post-religious right has failed to materialize. But when Schmitz says a post-religious right has “failed to materialize” I have to strongly disagree.
Persons: Donald Trump, Matthew Schmitz, , , that’s, Schmitz, Mitt Romney, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Vance, George W, Bush, Trump, Norman Vincent Peale Organizations: Republican, Trump, Christian, Republican Party Locations: American, Ohio
Ron DeSantis speaks during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit in Tampa, Fla. on July 22, 2022. One survey in the nation’s first primary state, New Hampshire, showed the two statistically tied in a primary, but another survey show Trump with a lead. Some Florida polls have also shown DeSantis leading Trump in a one-on-one primary. The poll also showed DeSantis might win a majority of Hispanic voters in Florida, which no Republican governor has done in 20 years. “In that event, Ron has a different set of issues he has to contend with if he wants to run against Trump.”
Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Quoctrung Bui | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +18 min
But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. Just because you put the right ingredients in a bowl, doesn’t mean you’re going to end up with a cake. I think a lot of that has been swept under the rug because the move to online polling seems so inexorable. Pollsters don’t know what people are seeing, hearing and reading. I know at FiveThirtyEight you can search by A-rated or B-rated, but I don’t know how they’re coming up with these ratings.
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