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What issue did your vote come down to in the end? Starting in mid-August, we spoke regularly to 13 young voters who were torn about their choice in the presidential election, to track how and why their opinions were evolving. “I can’t believe it, but I did end up voting for Donald Trump,” said Abigail, a 23-year-old Virginian who backed Mr. Biden last time. She felt Mr. Trump was a strong leader, liked his choice of JD Vance and felt Democrats made assumptions based on gender. Even those in our group who sharply disagreed with one another felt a measure of appreciation for the chance to talk and listen.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, , , Abigail, Biden, JD Vance, Harris, Joe Rogan’s, Gen Organizations: Biden, Mr, Trump Locations: Gaza, America
As Election Day begins to wind down, polls suggest that the presidential race will be one of the closest in the history of American politics, as neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes.
For our final Times Opinion focus group of the 2024 election, we spoke with late-deciding voters — Americans who were seesawing between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump recently and making up their minds at the last minute. All of our 15 late deciders were from swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, and many of them voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and for Joe Biden in 2020. No surprise, most of them had concerns and hang-ups about both of the candidates, but it quickly became clear that Mr. Trump, in particular, was doing himself no favors with these voters. As for Ms. Harris, most of these voters thought she would be "more of the same" as president, rather than a leader who pursues changes, and saw her as less authentic than Mr. Trump.. But in the end, years of misgivings and doubts about Mr. Trump outweighed the uncertainty about Ms. Harris with several participants, and more of them saw her winning than Mr. Trump.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama Organizations: Trump, Mr Locations: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Madison
Ms. Harris starts out with 226 likely electoral votes compared with 219 for Mr. Trump, with 93 votes up for grabs. Scenario 6 Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Scenario 7 … or North Carolina. Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have been campaigning hard and often there, and Democrats hope that the favorable governor’s race could help them. Scenario 5 … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … Scenario 6 … or Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign is taking a similar approach, focusing on white college-educated women, who currently favor Ms. Harris by 29 points.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Harris, immovably, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Trump’s, Harris –, Trump’s resiliency, Harris’s, William Frey, Michael Dukakis, Josh Shapiro, JD Vance, Mr, Bill McInturff, there’s, , Joe Rogan’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Trump, Electoral, Democrats, Republicans, Democratic, Mr, Sun, Electoral College, NBC, Black, Brookings Institution, Michigan, , Republican, Biden Locations: Virginia, Minnesota, Georgia, Arizona , Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wis, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Ariz ., Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin . Pennsylvania, , … Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania , Michigan
You’ve probably heard a lot about the gender gap in presidential politics by now. And this most of all: In modern presidential politics, the gender gap has never been wider, but it gets particularly large when we break out gender by educational attainment. KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump +40 Dem. KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump +40 Dem. The story of this election could well be the gender gap between those Americans who went to college and those who didn’t.
Persons: You’ve, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton’s, , Trump’s, JD Vance, , Vance, Biden, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Joe Rogan’s, Joe Rogan, Brené Brown, Wade, Joe Biden’s, Amanda Iovino, Glenn Youngkin’s Organizations: Trump, Harris, women, Pew, Mr, Pew Research, Facebook, Democratic, Pew Research Center, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump, ., Election, Republicans, Republican Party, Democratic Party, America, Lake Research Partners, Democratic National Committee, WPA Intelligence, Republican, Republican National Convention, Democratic National Convention, YouTube Locations: American, New York, Roe
Now, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appear to be in a dead heat in Michigan, and it’s once again crucial for winning the presidency. For our latest Times Opinion focus group, we gathered a cross-section of Michigan voters to assess the race in the home stretch. The takeaway isn’t especially positive for Ms. Harris. Others thought Mr. Trump didn’t understand what it meant to struggle financially. Perhaps most worrisome for Ms. Harris, nine of our 11 participants thought she would pursue policies similar to Mr. Biden’s.
Persons: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, it’s, Harris, Jill Stein, Trump, Biden’s, Muhammad, Biden, , ” Muhammad Organizations: Democratic, Democrats, Green Party, Mr, Michigan Locations: Michigan, America, Israel, Trump
What are some strengths that Kamala Harris brings to the table, even if you aren’t voting for her? What are some strengths that Kamala Harris brings to the table, even if you aren’t voting for her? At the same time, half of them said it was important that America have a female president in the next decade, and a few praised Kamala Harris. The women who liked Mr. Trump said they trusted him more on the economy and inflation and were skeptical that costs would go down under Ms. Harris because they blamed the Biden-Harris administration for the state of the economy now. In such a polarized election, we were struck that one woman had switched from Mr. Trump to Ms. Harris and another seemed to be leaning that way.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Organizations: Trump, Democratic, Biden, Mr Locations: America, reconvene
Since August, we’ve been talking weekly with a group of young voters who are torn among Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and a write-in choice, to track their changing opinions. These undecided voters are really, really troubled by Trump’s refusal to admit he lost the 2020 election (and Vance’s refusal to say that in the debate). But Tim Walz’s question to Vance at the debate — did Trump lose the 2020 election? But I don’t know if I trust Trump to be a normal person for the next three months,” said Lillian, a 27-year-old Virginian who voted for Trump in 2020 but is now undecided. These voters suggest that Trump should be more worried than Harris right now.
Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, JD Vance —, Trump, Tim Walz’s, Vance, Kamala, , Lillian, Harris, Nikki Haley, , , Jan Organizations: Trump, Republican Locations: America, Pennsylvania
For all the Democratic Party energy behind Kamala Harris, she is in a dead heat in all seven swing states against Donald Trump, despite his low favorability ratings and divisive policies like tax cuts for the wealthy and opposition to abortion rights. The participants felt torn about whether America’s best days were ahead or in the past and had seen some modest improvements in the economy — especially the job and housing markets — but felt worried personally about inflation and the future. The participants reviled Mr. Trump; this group wasn’t undecided in the sense that most would swing to him. The participants didn’t know a lot about her policies on the economy, Israel and Gaza, climate change, transgender kids, housing and immigration. The tight polls in the swing states make more sense after listening to these 15 voters.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Harris, America’s, Trump, Trump’s Organizations: Democratic Party, Mr, Biden Locations: Pennsylvania , Michigan, Wisconsin, , North Carolina, Israel, Gaza
Since mid-August, we’ve been talking with the same group of young, undecided voters about the election. Many thought Mr. Trump was weak and ineffective in the debate and easily manipulated by Ms. Harris – a revelation, they said, because they thought of him as confident and aggressive. All 14 members of our group said Ms. Harris won, which is all the more notable given that these undecided voters lean moderate or conservative. But Ms. Harris has work to do if she wants their votes. Mark, a 24-year-old from California who also voted for Mr. Biden the last time, hoped Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump would debate again, and he said: “Let’s really get some policy.
Persons: we’ve, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump –, Trump, Harris –, Harris, Joe Biden, “ Doesn’t, , Abigail, Biden, , haven’t Organizations: Mr Locations: Virginia, California
Opinion | What Harris Has to Do Next, and Fast
  + stars: | 2024-08-20 | by ( Patrick Healy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
If the Republican convention’s message for America last month had to fit on a bumper sticker, it would read, “Trump is God.” Delegates deified him relentlessly as the risen Trump after the assassination attempt. They told me over and over that he was spared to save the country with his re-election. Only on the final night did Donald Trump come crashing down to earth with his nomination speech. The most divisive man in America was suddenly getting a measure of good will from skeptical voters after he was nearly killed. The good news for Democrats is that Harris seems to understand this.
Persons: “ Trump, , Trump, Donald Trump, Biden’s, “ Harris, Don’t, Bill Clinton, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: America, Democratic, , Democrats Locations: America
Patrick Healy: Kamala Harris will announce her running mate very soon. Michelle Goldberg: Like a lot of progressives, I barely knew who Tim Walz was two weeks ago. Now I love him, even though I worry that his normal Midwestern guy affect is starting to border on shtick. Goldberg: He reads like an all-American heartland normie — a hunter and former high school football coach — who can articulate progressive priorities in a plain-spoken, unapologetic way. And branding Republicans “weird” was a stroke of genius, capturing the large part of the Venn diagram where sinister authoritarianism and ridiculous online subcultural tics overlap.
Persons: Patrick Healy, Jamelle Bouie, Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, JD Vance, Tim Walz, it’s, Andy Beshear, Healy, Michelle, Walz, Goldberg, Organizations: Electoral College, Democrats, Trump Locations: shtick, Kentucky
Why have many Democrats embraced Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee, despite not knowing much about what she believes? We spoke to 14 Democrats as part of our latest Times Opinion focus group, and the answer was clear: Most had been deeply anxious about President Biden, and once he bowed out of the race, they needed a nominee fast. Some of the more liberal or younger participants in the group wondered if Harris is too harsh on criminal justice or on migrants crossing the border. Others don’t know what she would do about the economy — a top concern of theirs — or much else about her. For all that, most of our 14 participants felt more hopeful about Harris than Biden, whose age and inarticulateness left some thinking they would not vote this year.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, Harris, inarticulateness, Locations: Harris
nominee should be this year. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Patrick Healy: Michelle, Lydia, Ross and David, I’ll cut to the chase: Is the Democratic Party making a mistake by quickly going all in on Kamala Harris as its likely presidential nominee? Michelle Goldberg: This is a hard question, because for the party to do otherwise would mean trying to restrain the passions, enthusiasms and calculations of its members. Healy: Did that flood of support seem organic to you, Michelle, or orchestrated by Harris’s campaign?
Persons: Patrick Healy, Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg, Lydia Polgreen, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Michelle, Lydia, Ross, David, I’ll, Harris, Healy Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party
While President Biden enjoys strong support from Black voters, Donald Trump has chipped away at that crucial Democratic base: He won 12 percent of Black voters in the 2020 election and did especially well with Black men, winning 19 percent. Some pollsters think Mr. Trump may do even better in November. This focus group was held last week, before the assassination attempt on Mr. Trump. But they also said that some of their friends and relatives sharply disagreed with them about Mr. Trump. For these men, Mr. Trump is not just the more appealing choice but also the sole realistic option, given “how off track the president is mentally,” as one participant said.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, , Rashad, Mr Organizations: Black, Democratic, Democratic Party Locations: Pennsylvania
Patrick Healy: Frank, Michelle, David, the Republican convention is opening on Monday night just 48 hours after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. How do you think the shooting will shape or change the convention, and Trump? The key player here will be Trump, of course, and his nomination speech may well be the most-watched address in a generation. Patrick: How far do you think Republicans will take it, Frank? I’m watching to see how much further Republican politicians themselves push that kind of thinking and accusation.
Persons: Patrick Healy, Frank, Michelle, David, Donald Trump, Trump, David French, Joe Biden, Frank Bruni, Patrick, — Elon, Organizations: Republican, Trump Locations: Milwaukee
Patrick Healy, the deputy Opinion editor, hosted an online conversation with the Times Opinion columnists Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg and Bret Stephens to discuss Donald Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate — why Mr. Trump picked him, how Mr. Vance could help the ticket, what’s surprising and unusual about the vice-presidential nominee, and what if anything worries our columnists about Mr. Vance. Patrick Healy: The answer to one of the biggest questions of the presidential election has now been revealed: Donald Trump has chosen J.D. Vance as his running mate. What was the first thing that popped into your minds when you heard Trump had picked the first-term senator from Ohio and why?
Persons: Patrick Healy, Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg, Bret Stephens, Donald Trump’s, Vance, , Trump, Donald Trump, Fareed Zakaria’s, Trumper Organizations: Fareed Zakaria’s CNN, Republican Party, Trump Locations: Ohio, United States
In my 20 years of covering presidential campaigns as a journalist, there have been just two political conventions where the presidential nominees, their teams, the delegates and the party spent all four days radiating the confidence of a winner. The first was the Democrats’ in 2008 with Barack Obama — I’ll never forget how everyone I spoke with was certain of victory in November. The second one was the Republicans’ this week in Milwaukee, where Trump supporter after Trump supporter calmly, clearly insisted that Donald Trump would win this November. Don’t get me wrong: Many of the convention speakers spewed grievances to tear down Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and there was a certain fraudulence to the whole event — with Republicans lying about their war on abortion rights by censoring any talk of it, and misleading the audience about the economy, immigration, crime and more. But the tone and tenor of the convention were ecstatic about Trump, who was portrayed and praised as a man who survived an assassination attempt by the grace of God and emerged as a “lion” (a word used multiple times this week).
Persons: Barack Obama — I’ll, Donald Trump, Don’t, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump, God Organizations: Republicans, Trump Locations: Milwaukee
What do they do about their candidate for president, and their campaign to beat Donald Trump? Michelle Goldberg: I think Biden has to get out. As you know, I’ve been arguing since 2022 that he’s too old to run for re-election. But recently, when people have asked me about it, I’ve wondered, is it too late? And I think that’s rapidly becoming the consensus not just among panicky pundits, but among senior Democrats.
Persons: Patrick Healy, I’ve, Biden’s, Kamala Harris, Biden, , Donald Trump, Michelle, Michelle Goldberg, Hakeem Jeffries, , Healy, Bret, “ Biden, It’s Organizations: Democratic National Convention, Associated Press, Biden, America, Democratic
candidate who would make a genuine difference for Trump in the campaign and in the November election vote? What matters most about Trump’s choice? First, as Democrats like to point out when questions of Joe Biden’s age come up, Trump is also pretty damn old. So the possibility that his vice president would succeed Trump in the middle of his term is not implausible. Ross Douthat: It’s not just that Trump is old, it’s also that — fears of his permanent power notwithstanding — he’s term-limited, which means that his V.P.
Persons: Patrick Healy, Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg, Bret Stephens, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Bret, Joe Biden’s, Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, It’s, it’s, Mike Pence’s, there’s Organizations: Trump Locations: MAGA, Florida
The voters intrigued by Mr. Kennedy seemed more likely to reflect Trumpist views — angry about establishment politics, immigration, government mandates and vaccination policies. A couple of people were opposed to Mr. Biden over the war in Gaza, calling it a genocide and him a murderer. Most of the participants didn’t think he would win in November, but they were hungry for an outspoken outsider who wasn’t Mr. Trump. “They’re saying things to get elected. Robert F. Kennedy is saying things because he believes them.”
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, didn’t, he’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Mr, Kennedy, Kennedy’s, , Joe Biden, , Robert, Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Biden, Trump Locations: Gaza, Colorado
Thirty minutes into the presidential debate, I’ve heard from three veteran Democratic presidential campaign officials, and all of them had the same reaction to President Biden’s performance: This is a disaster. It wasn’t just that Biden wasn’t landing a glove on Donald Trump on the economy, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Covid, taxes, temperament or anything else that was coming up in the questioning. I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”One of the Democrats said Biden looked scared. The third said of the performance overall, “Don’t ask.”Trump lied repeatedly during the debate about the pandemic, immigration and Roe v. Wade, but Biden didn’t hold him accountable for those lies in a memorable way. At times, Trump attacked Biden, but the president didn’t fight back.
Persons: I’ve, Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Roe, Wade, “ Don’t, ” Trump, Biden didn’t, Trump, didn’t Organizations: Democratic, Trump, Democrats
After the Trump verdict, what word describes how you feel about Donald Trump? After the Trump verdict, what word describes how you feel about Donald Trump? None said they were now definitely Biden voters, though notably, several said Mr. Trump had lost their vote or that they were more inclined to Mr. Biden. Others thought Democrats pushed these felony charges to help Mr. Biden politically, saying that the Biden campaign was trying to exploit the verdict. Character and integrity mattered for the presidency, and disgust with Mr. Trump could tip the scales for some of them in the end.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Frank Luntz, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Hillary Clinton, didn’t, , Hilary, , Tony Soprano, Trump’s Organizations: Biden, White Locations: California
Listen to and follow ‘Matter of Opinion’With Lydia Polgreen in South Africa covering its elections, Ross Douthat out on parental leave and Michelle Cottle reporting from a saloon in Colorado, Carlos Lozada turns the “Matter of Opinion” mic over to his Times Opinion colleagues to respond to the news about Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush-money trial. The columnists Michelle Goldberg and David French — who calls himself “a recovering litigator” — join the deputy Opinion editor, Patrick Healy, to discuss Trump’s 34 guilty counts and debate what they mean for the former president, whether he’ll face prison time and how it will affect the 2024 presidential race. Below is a lightly edited transcript of their conversation. To listen to this episode, click the play button below.
Persons: Lydia Polgreen, Ross Douthat, Michelle Cottle, Carlos Lozada, Donald Trump’s, Michelle Goldberg, David French —, , litigator ” —, Patrick Healy Locations: South Africa, Colorado, New
And like everyone else, I’m trying to read the tea leaves on whether this will be the first jury to convict an American president. We know that in the presidential race, some swing voters could be swayed by a Trump conviction. So this trial may play an influential role in the election this November. And what I want to know at this point in the trial is, how effective has the prosecution been? And what will and what should Trump’s defense do next?
Persons: I’m, Trump
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