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North Korea fighting alongside Russia would be a serious escalation to the Ukraine war. Experts criticized a lack of decisive Western strategy in countering the threat. AdvertisementWestern allies have options to react to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but are hamstrung by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider. The fact that now a serious escalation looks possible thanks to North Korea is an indication of the failure of that policy, Hunter told BI. Western states are likely to have been quietly hoping that China might step in diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Hunter said.
Persons: , Mark Rutte, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Patrick Bury, Kim Jong Un, Edward Hunter Christie, Hunter, Richard Fontaine, It's, Jens Stoltenberg, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Emmanuel Macron, Landsbergis, Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, Ann Marie Dailey, Joe Biden's, Western Europe —, Biden, Dailey, we're Organizations: NATO, Service, Pentagon, UN, Politico, UK's University of Bath, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Center, New, New American Security, Bloomberg, Biden, RAND Locations: Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Kursk, Europe, New American, Norway, Western, Congress, Poland, Russian, South Korea, Western Europe, North Korea, China
Read previewUkraine has surprised the world with its attack on Kursk, a rare ground invasion of Russian soil. As of Monday, the Kremlin announced that Ukrainian troops had advanced almost 19 miles into the western Russian region. In a public meeting that afternoon, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed his military to purge Ukrainian troops from Kursk. Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, assessed on Monday that some Russian troops had been moved from within Ukraine, but the scale is unclear. He said this would likely only be incidental to Ukraine's main strategic goal in the Kursk attack.
Persons: , Patrick Bury, Vladimir Putin, We're, Matthew Ford, Ford, Matthew Savill, Savill, Russia's, West, Ukraine —, Bury, we've, they've, Putin, Vladimir, Peter Dickinson Organizations: Service, UK's University of Bath, Kremlin, Business, Agence France, Presse, BI, UK's University of Sussex, Royal United Services Institute, West Ford, Ukraine, Pentagon, Trump, Atlantic, Moscow Times Locations: Ukraine, Kursk, Russian, Russia, Kyiv, London, Kharkiv
Read previewRussia is fumbling a golden opportunity in Ukraine as its latest offensive stalls, experts told Business Insider. The monthslong Republican delay over a new tranche of US military aid had left Ukrainian forces desperately short of ammo and equipment. AdvertisementBut it's likely Putin had other goals — and he may have succeeded in some of them, Bury told BI. Even so, it looks like Russian forces were quickly overextended and poorly protected, The Telegraph reported. "The Kharkiv offensive, even if it wasn't what the Russians have hoped for, ultimately in many ways it served its purpose," said Reynolds.
Persons: , John Kirby, Patrick Bury, Vladimir Putin, readying, Jake Epstein, Chasiv Yar, Putin, Ann Marie Dailey, it's, Bury, Rob Lee, Nick Reynolds, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Dailey, Putin's, Joe Biden —, Reynolds, Russia's Organizations: Service, White House National Security Communications, Business, UK's University of Bath, Republican, of Defence, BBC, Washington Post, RAND, Policy, Telegraph, Royal United Services Institute, for, Kyiv Post, Bury, Politico, Kharkiv, Russia's Kharkiv Locations: Ukraine, Kharkiv, Russia, Ukrainian, Vovchansk, Russian, Belgorod, Kyiv, Ukraine's, Sumy
NATO states' increased defense spending in recent years has little to do with Trump, experts told BI. NATO spending has indeed accelerated since Trump entered politics. It ain't what you do, it's the way that you do itTrump's demands of NATO allies also weren't a departure from existing US policy. Threatening partners is "bananas"Trump's transactional take on NATO collective defense is ultimately reasonable, Bury said — but encouraging other countries to attack NATO allies is "bananas." AdvertisementIf US allies are spending more money on NATO defense, it's not because Trump is goading them, but because they're concerned about increasing global instability.
Persons: Trump, it's, , Kaja Kallas, Mark Rutte, Edward Hunter Christie, Hunter Christie, William Alberque, Russia hadn't, hadn't, Alberque, Patrick Bury, Barack Obama, didn't, Joe Biden, Bury, Vladimir Putin Organizations: NATO, Trump, Service, Estonia's, Dutch, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, International Institute for Strategic Studies, UK's University of Bath Locations: Russia, , NATO, Crimea, Trump, South Korea, Japan, United States, Ukraine
A closer relationship with ChinaChina and Russia have deepened their military ties in recent years with the help of arms sales and joint military exercises. It has hosted Russian military drills, soldiers, and equipment, and enabled the transportation of Russian weapons close to Ukraine's borders. The situation is looking bleak for UkraineThe support from Russia's allies matters, especially when paired with the country's soaring defense budget. Its military appears to have a major edge over Ukraine as the country's financial and military support from its allies is faltering. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Senate passed a $95 billion emergency defense-aid bill that could support Ukraine, Israel, and Tawain — but the bill is expected to face stiff opposition by Republicans, BI previously reported.
Persons: , That's, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Klimentyev, Nils Andreas Stensones, Stensones, Trump, Putin, YURI KADOBNOV, Patrick Bury Organizations: Ukraine, Service, Norway's Intelligence Service, Sputnik, Moscow Times, UN, North, European Council, Foreign Relations, UK's Ministry of Defence, Reuters, University of Bath, Putin, Trump, Republicans Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Europe, Ukrainian, China China, Japan, Russian, Ukraine's, Helsinki, Israel
Read previewAs the second anniversary of Russia's unprovoked invasion approaches, the situation is beginning to look bleak for Ukraine. But the offensive failed to achieve a breakthrough, and Ukraine is now seeing crucial support from its allies bleed away. Ukraine has previously warned it may not be able to successfully defend itself against Russia without US help. The Senate on Tuesday passed a $95 billion emergency defense aid bill that could help Ukraine. According to reports, Ukraine is struggling to fight off Russian attacks, particularly around the city of Avdiivka, in Donetsk, east Ukraine.
Persons: , Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Valerii Zaluzhny, Valery Zaluzhny, Zaluzhny, Ryan Evans, I'm, Patrick Bury, Michael Kofman, Zelenskyy, Mykhailo Fedorov, they've, Grant Shapps, That's, Basil Germond, Putin, Kofman, Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson Organizations: Service, Business, Representatives, Bloomberg, CNN, Washington Post, UK's University of Bath, CNA Corporation, Associated Press, Reuters, Bury, Defense Intelligence, YouTube, UK's Defence, Black, Fleet, Lancaster University, Republican, Fox News, Ukraine, Trump Locations: Ukraine, Huliaipole, Russia, , Zelenskyy, Ukrainian, Avdiivka, Donetsk, Bury, Iran, North Korea, Al, NATO, Sevastopol, Crimea, Russian
A tactical shift by Ukraine will likely make it even harder for Russia to gain new territory in its invasion, an expert told Business Insider. Riley Bailey, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI that Ukraine's defenses will make it "harder for Russian forces to attack head on into entrenched fortified positions. Russia has already struggled to make progress, and these fortifications will likely make its goals even harder to reach. It frustrated advanced Ukrainian weaponry like tanks. 110th Separate Mechanized BrigadeThe extra fortifications will now make Russian decision-making harder, Bailey said.
Persons: Riley Bailey, Bailey, Thomas Peter TPX, Patrick Bury, William Alberque, Ukraine doesn't, Alberque, Jack Watling Organizations: New York Times, Institute for, Business, REUTERS, Patrick, UK's University of Bath, NATO, Mechanized, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Reuters Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Ukrainian, Kupiansk, Kyiv, Avdiivka
Ukraine's arduous counteroffensive is "far from over," General David Petraeus has said. Nonetheless, with enough pressure the Russian line can "suddenly break," he wrote. Faced with this, even the US would struggle, Petraeus told CNN. "Ukraine is applying pressure on their opponent until something breaks, at which point they will commit their reserves and strike," Petraeus and Kagan wrote. "When the conditions are right, they're picking their way through these minefields now," Petraeus told CNN.
Persons: David Petraeus, Frederick Kagan, Petraeus, Kagan, Tony Radakin, Patrick Bury Organizations: Service, CIA, CNN, Washington Post, SPG, Getty Images, Air Assault Brigade, Facebook, Air Assault Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Iraq, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Roman, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Melitopol
US intelligence believes Ukraine won't reach the key city of Melitopol, The Washington Post reported. Retaking the city is a landmark goal for Ukraine's counteroffensive. Reaching and even retaking Crimea is a hallowed objective in Ukraine's counteroffensive, with the peninsula under Russian occupation since 2014. Ukrainian troops are trying to push through these deadly lines from the town of Robotyne, 50 miles to the north, per The Washington Post. Ukraine has switched to pummelling the Russian lines with artillery fire, before painstakingly attempting to move forward with infantry and sappers.
Persons: Ukraine's, recriminations, Patrick Bury, Bury, Melitopol, Oleksiy Danilov Organizations: The Washington Post, Ukraine's, Service, Washington Post, Post, Democrats, UK's Bath University, Russia, Dnipro, Bradley Locations: Ukraine, Melitopol, The, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Azov, Dnipro, Crimea, Kerch, Robotyne
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