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The US housing market looks like it's headed for a recession, Wells Fargo has warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hikes could be about to trigger a housing-market recession that echoes the slowdown of the 1980s, Wells Fargo has warned. "Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms," they added. Please Lower Interest Rates." AdvertisementAdvertisement"The plea for assistance from housing industry participants, both in the early 1980s and more recently, illustrates the severe impact higher interest rates can have on the residential sector," Dougherty and Barley wrote.
Persons: Wells Fargo, , Charlie Dougherty, Patrick Barley, Freddie Mac, Jackson, Paul Volcker, National Association of Homebuilders, Jerome Powell, Dougherty, Barley Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, Wells, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Locations: Redfin
In some cities, the damage will be as bad as it was across the US in the mid-2000s, the bank said. Attention homeowners and real-estate investors, Goldman Sachs has bad news: home prices are going to fall further in 2023 than they had previously thought. Goldman SachsWhile Karoui, Viswanathan, and Walker see national home prices falling by 10% peak-to-trough, they see prices in cities where home values have soared above average falling more. What other firms are sayingGoldman Sachs isn't the only Wall Street bank calling for further home price declines in 2023. Morgan Stanley strategist James Egan said in a January note that he sees home prices falling by 4% in 2023 thanks to stagnant demand.
But a housing market slowdown also increases the risk of a recession. The aggressive monetary tightening lifted the average 30-year US mortgage rate from 5.60% to 6.84% over the last three months, according to Bankrate. "A decline in home buying is one of the byproducts of tighter monetary policy," Macquarie's head of economics David Doyle told Insider. What has the Fed said about the housing market? Should borrowing costs remain too high for too long, those industries risk facing a decline in business at a time when monetary tightening is already squeezing their cash flows.
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