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Top related persons:
Pascal Michaillat - 3 — - 2 David Rosenberg - 2 Emmanuel Saez - 2 payrolls - 2 Rosenberg - 1 Merrill Lynch - 1 Vane - 1
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Jackson Hole , Wyoming Santa Cruz Toronto
Top related orgs:
Service - 2 Rosenberg Research - 2 Business - 2 Federal Reserve - 1 Bureau of Labor Statistics - 1 Fed - 1 Treasury - 1 Pantheon - 1

Search resuls for: "Pascal Michaillat"


3 mentions found


☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the Fed is behind on rate cuts — and that a downturn is coming despite 'off the charts' investor sentiment
  + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
☆ There's a 40% chance the US economy is already in a recession, according to a new indicator
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job vacancy data in addition to unemployment data. The closely watched Sahm rule was triggered earlier this month after a weak July jobs report. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThere's a new recession indicator that's making waves, and it says there's a 40% probability the US is already in a recession.
Persons: —, there's, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Claudia Sahm — Organizations: Service, Business
☆ Opinion | A Strong Job Market Doesn’t Mean the Economy Is Recession-Proof
  + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
In comparison the job market has been, as I said, relatively strong. Pascal Michaillat, an economist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, likes to measure the tightness of the job market by comparing the number of job vacancies with the number of unemployed people. The labor market is efficient, he contends, when the numbers are equal — that is, when the ratio of vacancies to unemployed is exactly 1. One scenario is that the labor market remains tight for longer than it would otherwise, but eventually cracks. In fact, there are already some signs of cracking in the labor market.
Persons: payrolls, Pascal Michaillat, ”, David Rosenberg Organizations: Economic, of Labor Statistics, University of California, Rosenberg Research Locations: Santa Cruz, Toronto
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