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Many Americans have been holding back from jumping into the housing market in the hopes that mortgage rates will decline. The average 30-year mortgage rate has been above 6% for two years — and is likely to stay above that level for the foreseeable future, experts say. “Sixes are the new normal,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a mortgage listing services group, referring to 6% mortgage rates. It’s really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all.”Mortgage rates work differently. When demand for those increases, mortgage rates tend to fall.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, ”, Lisa Sturtevant, Brian Rehling, Trump, Mike Fratantoni, ” Fratantoni, Helene, ” Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Sturtevant, “ It’s Organizations: Federal, Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, Wells, Investment Institute, ”, U.S, Mortgage, Association, “, National Association of Realtors, Pantheon, NBC

☆ Trump is about to make the Fed's job a lot harder
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Donald Trump's election victory is set to make the Federal Reserve's job more difficult. His tariff and immigration plans are expected to stoke inflation, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. Trump has also said he'd like a say in setting monetary policy, which would erode Fed independence. Donald Trump's election win brings his vision of hefty trade tariffs and a sweeping immigration crackdown closer to becoming reality. A study from the Peterson Institute of International Economics said interfering with the Fed's independence could cost the economy $300 billion and drive inflation higher.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, —, it's, Glen Smith, Smith, Paul Krugman, Trump's, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: stoke, Service, Treasury, GDS Wealth Management, Fed, Fed Trump, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Trump Locations: China

☆ Expect the unexpected in the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

In any other month, the finishing touch would be a clean reading on the labor market from the official jobs report. However, a common thread among economists is that the strikes and hurricanes could take a 100,000-job bite out of the October jobs report. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes — Harvey and Irma in 2017 — the forecasts for the following month’s jobs report were for a loss of 33,000 positions. And each contribute to two of the biggest numbers in the monthly jobs report. A key date to keep in mind for the jobs report is October 12, as it anchors the “reference period” for both surveys.

Persons: ’, Claudia Sahm, “ It’s, That’s, aren’t, FactSet, Joe Brusuelas, — Harvey, Irma, Sahm, Oliver Allen, Milton, ”, Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, We’re, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden’s, “ Organizations: CNN, Boeing, Reserve, New Century Advisors, Labor, Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Challenger, ADP, BLS, RSM, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Republicans, The New York Times, Siena College, Associated Press Locations: Washington and Oregon

☆ Expect the unexpected in Friday’s jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

☆ Why the October jobs report on Friday could sink the market's soft-landing narrative
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.

Persons: September's, —, Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI

☆ Private sector added twice as many jobs as expected in October
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report. Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show. Pantheon Macroeconomics is sticking with its forecast of 100,000 payroll gains, according to an investors note sent Wednesday. And while a resurgence in the labor market could raise concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, October’s ADP data showed otherwise, Richardson said.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Hurricane Helene, ADP’s tabulations, ” Richardson, Richardson, “, Irma, ” Samuel Tombs, Milton …, Wednesday’s, ” Organizations: CNN, ADP, Boeing, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Pantheon, Companies, Federal Reserve Locations: Hurricane Milton, Carolina, Florida, Milton, South Atlantic

☆ GDP report Wednesday expected to show more growth, less inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Commerce Department is expected to report Wednesday that gross domestic product grew at a hardy 3.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Along with that, the release is expected to show that inflation moved closer or perhaps even below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed uses the personal consumption expenditures price index, included in the GDP estimate, as its primary inflation gauge. The report, then, should indicate a solid economy and easing inflation , the latter at least on a relative basis from how things looked a year ago. "Overall, another quarter of above-trend growth and a benign inflation reading will be welcomed by the Fed."

Persons: Dow, Oliver Allen, Allen, nudging, Alice Zheng Organizations: Commerce Department, Fed, Pantheon, stoke, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at all-time highs ahead of key inflation update
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Indexes hit fresh all-time highs ahead of the key inflation report for September due Thursday. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to coming inflation data and took in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting. The stakes of the next inflation reading have risen after the big September jobs number, and Wall Street could be in for some volatility in the event of an upside surprise, Bank of America said this week. Central bankers predicted inflation would fall to 2% by 2026, while risks to economic strength were "tilted to the downside." According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds for another jumbo-sized rate cut in 2024 have fallen to zero.

Persons: —, Josh Hirt, Oliver Allen Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Investors, Nasdaq, Justice, Treasury, Here's, Fed, Bank of America, Vanguard, Pantheon

☆ Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes. Traders are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in November. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. AdvertisementAccording to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut.

Persons: —, Paul Donovan Organizations: Service, Reserve, UBS Global Wealth Management, Pantheon, Fed, US Department of Justice

☆ Wider Middle East conflict threatens the global economy — when the US and China already face headwinds, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say. AdvertisementExperts say the escalating war in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy. "War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementKaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by disrupting international supply chains and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation.

Persons: Helene, —, Hurricane Helene, Ahmet Kaya, Kaya, Brent, Assaf Razin, Eitan Berglas, Oliver Allen, Allen, that's, Duncan Wrigley, China's, Wrigley Organizations: stoke, Service, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Eitan, of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oxford Locations: Hurricane, China, Israel, Iran, Oxford, China China, Beijing

☆ Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster September jobs report — and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.

Persons: —, Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked

☆ Friday’s jobs report could be the last normal one for a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.

Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, ”, Erica Groshen, They’ve, “, Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, “, American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio

☆ Bloomberg's chief economist shares why there's a 70% chance the US economy is recession-bound — and warns a stock-market sell-off could sink consumer spending
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThere's a 70% chance the US economy is either in a recession or headed toward one in the months ahead, according to Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong. The one that stands out most to Wong is the much-talked-about sustained rise in the unemployment rate. "Initially, in all the recessions, this is how the unemployment rate tends to rise," she said. Another key metric economists watch to judge whether the economy is in recession is consumer spending, which makes up around two-thirds of GDP in the US. LendingTreeWong believes wealthier Americans are spending due to the wealth effect, where high asset prices boost consumer confidence and fuel spending.

Persons: —, Anna Wong, Wong, Louis Fed, Louis Fed Wong, LendingTree Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Fed Locations: St

☆ 3 reasons why today's Fed rate cut is the beginning of a more aggressive cutting spree than investors expect: chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates today for the first time since 2020 as the labor market and inflation continue to cool. AdvertisementAssuming a 25-basis-point cut at every FOMC meeting until next July, that would leave an extra 75 basis points the central bank would have to work into its policy adjustments over that time. One is that the consumer could be weaker than they appear, and the labor market is likely to deteriorate further. AdvertisementWhile the Fed hopes to stimulate spending with rate cuts, Tombs is skeptical that they'll the impact the central bank wants. Advertisement"New mortgage rates need to drop by about 250bp before they will undershoot the average outstanding mortgage rate," Tombs wrote.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell's, Samuel Tombs, Tombs Organizations: Service, Business, Macroeconomics Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ All the things pushing inflation up are fading away, says Pantheon's Shepherdson
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll the things pushing inflation up are fading away, says Pantheon's ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his thoughts on the economy, government funding that could impact inflation, and much more.

Persons: Pantheon's, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Macroeconomics

☆ Friday’s jobs report will likely determine the size of the Fed’s rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN —The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. Economists are expecting that the August report should reaffirm that the labor market is merely cooling versus outright weakening. Inflation had cooled, and the labor market was rolling right along and doing its part to keep consumers spending and the economy churning. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. “It would be a mistake to define the labor market as being excessively weak at this stage.”Instead, the signals indicate that the labor market has moved from being extremely strong and into better balance, she said.

Persons: ” Tuan Nguyen, —, ” Karin Kimbrough, “, ” Oliver Allen, ” Allen, ”, Andrew Challenger, Nick Bunker, Pantheon’s Allen, Beryl “, Mike Skordeles Organizations: CNN, RSM, Federal, LinkedIn, Labor, Department of Labor, “ Companies, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BLS, Employers, ADP, Challenger, Technology, “, North America, Bank of America Locations: US, Michigan, Texas

☆ America has the fewest jobs available since January 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —The number of available jobs in the US shrank more than expected in July, an indication that demand for workers continues to wane amid a cooling labor market. Wednesday’s data is the first in a series of critically important economic metrics released this week about the US labor market, culminating with the Friday jobs report. As the labor market has slowed, it’s come back into balance: There are now nearly 1.1 jobs available for every person looking for one. The monthly jobs report for July showed gains of just 114,000 — far below expectations — and the unemployment rate shot to 4.3% from 4.1%. Separately, annual labor market data revisions showed job gains for the year ending March 2024 were less robust than initially thought.

Persons: “, ” Oliver Allen, ”, it’s, hasn’t, ” Allen, Robert Frick, ” Frick, ” ‘ Haggard, haggard, Noah Yosif, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, ” Pollak, Wednesday’s, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Federal, Navy Federal Credit Union, American Staffing Association, ZipRecruiter

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the Fed is behind on rate cuts — and that a downturn is coming despite 'off the charts' investor sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The Fed's long-awaited rate cuts will open up the job market — but it could take a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.

Persons: —, Oliver Allen, Allen, …, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business

☆ Americans are finding it harder to get a new job
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Americans are staying unemployed for longer, the latest Labor Department data shows, in a reflection of a slowing economy. The number of Americans receiving jobless benefits for multiple weeks climbed to its highest level since November 2021, according to a Department of Labor report released Thursday. While the number of initial claims remains near pre-pandemic levels (but well below historical averages), they’ve moved higher in recent weeks. Weekly jobless claims data, which is looked at as a proxy for layoff activity, can be highly volatile and is frequently revised. Still, the trend as of late has been an upward one, economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients Thursday.

Persons: they’ve, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, ”, “ Organizations: CNN, Labor Department, Department, Labor, Pantheon, Federal, Consumer

☆ Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewAmerica's stimulus-fueled shopping spree looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, US Census data shows. That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently. "Early signs of a consumer recession finally coming to the fore." AdvertisementThe US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the New York Fed.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Stephanie Pomboy, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Pantheon Macroeconomics

☆ BOE waiting for better data on wages, underlying inflation: Economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBOE waiting for better data on wages and underlying inflation before cutting rates: EconomistRobert Wood, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the central bank is "still facing services inflation that's pretty elevated."

Persons: BOE, Robert Wood Organizations: Pantheon

☆ Uptick in European inflation clouds outlook for interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe has ticked up for the first time in five months, casting doubt on the possibility of a steady stream of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the next few months. The European Central Bank began hiking rates in July 2022 to curb runaway inflation sparked by the reopening of the world’s economies following the pandemic as well as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “May’s increases (in inflation) won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. All 82 economists polled by Reuters ahead of Friday’s inflation data expected the ECB to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week. Over two-thirds, 55 of 82, expected two more cuts this year, in September and December.

Persons: “, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Claus Vistesen, ” Organizations: London CNN, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Capital Economics, Pantheon Locations: Europe, Ukraine

☆ Bank of England likely to cut rates in June, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England likely to cut rates in June, economist saysRobert Wood, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the outlook for the Bank of England's monetary policy.

Persons: Robert Wood Organizations: Email Bank of, Pantheon, Bank Locations: Email Bank of England

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