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Thomas Coex | Afp | Getty ImagesThe oil-producing Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies could extend existing output cuts this week, delegates and analysts told CNBC, even as focus shifts from Middle East tensions to summer demand. OPEC+ producers are currently implementing a combined 5.86 million barrels per day of supply cuts. And then August is the peak month for tightness," Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC. "However, I think that the market right now has priced in a full extension of the voluntary cuts. A high-inflation environment and tight monetary policy in turn reined in oil demand, but central banks have signaled readiness to lower interest rates in the second half of the year.
Persons: Thomas Coex, Viktor Katona, overproducers, Jorge Leon, Yemen's, Tamas Varga Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Afp, Getty, CNBC, Energy, Market Research, PVM Oil Associates, United Arab Emirates Locations: OPEC, Vienna, China, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Paris, Ukraine, Gaza, Red, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Guyana, Brazil, Canada
Oil prices gain $1 on strong U.S. economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices gained steam Thursday on stronger than expected U.S. economic growth, stimulus in China and falling domestic crude stockpiles. The U.S. economy grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, soundly beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of 2%. Commercial crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. declined by 9.2 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 19, according to the Energy Information Agency. The stockpile decline is due to U.S. production taking a hit from a winter storm earlier this month, according to John Evans with PVM Oil Associates. U.S. production declined by 1 million barrels per day to 12.3 million bpd last week, according to estimates from the EIA.
Persons: Brent, John Evans, Ida, Ryan Grabinski, Grabinski, Evans Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, Energy Information Agency, PVM Oil Associates, Strategas Securities, Wednesday, CNBC PRO Locations: China, U.S, North Dakota, North America, Aden, Yemen, Iran, Iraq
Oil prices edged lower Wednesday as U.S. gasoline stocks rose significantly, suggesting demand might be faltering in the world's largest economy. U.S. crude oil inventories tumbled by 6.67 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 19, but gasoline stocks surged by 7.18 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Rising gasoline stocks are a signal that demand might be weakening as supply returns to the market after disruptions in Libya and North Dakota. Geopolitical risk is largely already factored into prices, according to Dwivedi. The market is waiting for the Energy Information Agency to release the latest weekly U.S. crude supply data at 10:30 am ET.
Persons: Brent, Vikas Dwivedi, Tamas Varga Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, American Petroleum Institute, U.S, Macquarie, PVM Oil Associates, Energy Information Agency Locations: Libya, North Dakota
A Repsol Oil Operations oil drilling rig pounds into the desert searching through thousands of feet for and oil reserve in El-Sharara, Libya. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors monitored the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and the restart of production at a major oilfield in Libya. The West Texas Intermediate contract for March fell $1.27, or 1.61%, to trade at $73.56 a barrel. Oil prices rallied about 2% on Monday after a suspected Ukrainian drone strike against a major Russian fuel terminal on the Baltic Sea highlighted the geopolitical threats to crude supplies. The potential threats to crude supplies have been tempered by Libya restarting production at the Sharara oilfield, which was shut down for about two weeks due to protests.
Persons: Brent, John Evans Organizations: Operations, The West Texas Intermediate, PVM Oil Associates, Houthi Locations: El, Sharara, Libya, Ukraine, The, Ukrainian, Baltic, U.S, Britain, Yemen, Red
A Repsol Oil Operations oil drilling rig pounds into the desert searching through thousands of feet for and oil reserve in El-Sharara, Libya. Oil prices were little changed on Monday as the market weighed the reopening of a key oilfield in Libya against ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Libya's National Oil Corporation resumed full production at the Sharara oilfield on Sunday after protests shut down output for two weeks. "The sentiment is sourer this morning because the force majeure on Libya's Sharara oil field has been lifted," Tamas Varga with PVM Oil Associates wrote in a note. OPEC, on the other hand, has presented a stronger outlook with oil demand forecast to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, while production outside OPEC will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day.
Persons: Brent, Tamas Varga Organizations: Operations, The West Texas Intermediate, National Oil Corporation, PVM Oil Associates, U.S, U.S . Central Command, Houthi, International Energy Agency Locations: El, Sharara, Libya, The, Iran, Iraq, U.S, Syria, Gaza
U.S. crude declined 4% on Wednesday, closing at the lowest level since late June with retail gasoline prices hitting the lowest point since January just ahead of the holiday shopping and travel season. Meanwhile, U.S. data on Wednesday sent a mixed picture on demand with crude inventories falling while gasoline stocks rose. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels for the week ending Dec. 1 but gasoline inventories rose by 5.4 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. Several OPEC+ members announced the voluntary cuts last week after the group failed to reach a unanimous agreement on production targets. Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates, said those reassurances have "fallen to deaf ears."
Persons: Brent, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Alexander Novak, Tamas Varga Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, AAA, Hamas, Wednesday, Energy Information Administration, Saudi Energy, PVM Oil Associates Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, OPEC, Moody's, Israel, Russia, Russian
"The oil suite remains rather stunned after the cancellation of Saudi Sunday," wrote John Evans of PVM Oil Associates in a note Friday. U.S. crude recovered most of Wednesday's intraday losses and trading has been relatively muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday with investors trying to digest the recent volatility. Europe demand headache for OPEC With the meeting delayed, investors are left with more bearish news on the demand side. "The likelihood of new demand coming from the continent is tantamount to zero giving more reason to be wary for oil investors and another layer of headache for OPEC," Evans wrote. "It's undermining the Saudi efforts to get the price really back to $100 a barrel plus," Kilduff told CNBC's " Power Lunch " on Wednesday.
Persons: John Evans, Brent, Evans, John Kilduff, PVM's Evans, Kilduff, CNBC's, PVM, Goldman Sachs, Michael Hsueh, Russia's Organizations: Organization of Petroleum, , PVM Oil Associates, West Texas Intermediate, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America Locations: China, Europe, Angola, Nigeria, Saudi, Riyadh, U.S, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
U.S. crude prices fell about 5% Wednesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries delayed a pivotal meeting on production cuts that was scheduled for the weekend. There was growing anticipation among traders that OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, might implement additional production cuts, which pushed prices higher earlier in the week. Domestic crude inventories, excluding the strategic reserve, increased by 8.7 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 17. OPEC+, for its part, has already taken 5.16 million barrels per day off the market since 2022. OPEC has blamed speculators for the recent drop in crude prices, arguing that market fundamentals are strong.
Persons: Brent, Tamas Varga, " Varga, Goldman Sachs, Varga Organizations: New Harmony Oil, Organization of Petroleum, The West Texas Intermediate, Bloomberg, OPEC, PVM Oil Associates, Energy Information Agency, Hamas Locations: U.S, Saudi, Russia, Ukraine, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gaza
The European Union's ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. "We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally." Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil." "This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil," analysts at Eurasia Group said.
The highly anticipated meeting comes ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil, weakening crude demand in China and mounting fears of a recession. Concern that an outright ban on Russian crude imports could send oil prices soaring, however, prompted the G-7 to consider a price cap on the amount it will pay for Russian oil. "The other factor OPEC will need to consider is indeed the price cap," Galimberti said. The Kremlin has previously warned that any attempt to impose a price cap on Russian oil will cause more harm than good. The energy alliance recently hinted it could impose deeper output cuts to spur a recovery in crude prices.
U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding the 383,000 barrel build that analysts had forecast. Prices were hit further by reports that the G7 price cap on Russian oil could be above the level it is trading. G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65-70/bbl, according to a European official on Wednesday. A senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday that the price cap will probably be adjusted a few times a year. The news added to concerns about demand from top crude oil importer China, which has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases, with Shanghai tightening rules late on Tuesday.
Oil climbs 4% as dollar slips and EU ban looms
  + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Julia Payne | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Both contracts were supported by a weaker dollar , which can boost oil demand because it makes the commodity cheaper for those holding other currencies. While demand concerns weighed on the market, supply is expected to remain tight because of Europe's planned embargoes on Russian oil and a slide in U.S. crude stockpiles. "The slight weakness in the dollar, the upcoming ban on Russian oil sales are certainly supportive as focus is shifting from recession fears to supply issues," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. "The main catalyst, however, is reports that China may ease its zero-Covid restrictions, which would be a boon to its economy and oil demand." The EU ban on Russian crude imports is due to take effect from Dec. 5.
Oil prices have fallen to roughly $80 from over $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession. OPEC and non-OPEC allies, a group often referred to as OPEC+, decided at their first face-to-face gathering in Vienna since 2020 to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November. Energy market participants had expected OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, to impose output cuts of somewhere between 500,000 barrels and 2 million barrels. Oil prices have fallen to roughly $80 a barrel from more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession. "In short, OPEC+ is prioritising price above stability at a time of great uncertainty in the oil market."
Oil prices rose around 4% on Monday morning. Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018. "A further uptick in trading activity coupled with tightening near-term oil fundamentals could well push oil prices back to $100/bbl," Brennock said in a research note. Storage tanks and oil processing facilities operate beside the Arabian Sea at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna will result in an oil production cut "of some historic kind", said CIO of Pickering Energy Partners, Dan Pickering.
На опасениях, что «вторая волна» коронавируса уже начала подрывать спрос в то время, как страны ОПЕК+ наращивают добычу, фьючерсы на сорт Brent обновили минимумы за 2 недели. Саудовская Аравия в сентябре нарастила экспорт на 500 тысяч баррелей в сутки и довела его до рекордных с мая 6,2 млн баррелей в день. После снятия блокады активно наращивает добычу Ливия, качающая уже 300 тысяч баррелей в сутки (против 80 тысяч месяц назад). «Рост числа зараженных коронавирусом в мире и снижение перемещений людей ставит под вопрос дальнейшие перспективы восстановления спроса» на нефть, констатируют аналитики Промсвязьбанка. В ближайшей перспективе нефть может подешеветь до 38 долларов за баррель Brent, прогнозирует ПСБ.
Persons: Brent, Bloomberg Flightradar, Тамас Варга Organizations: PVM Oil Associates, Bloomberg, Ryanair, Lufthansa, ОПЕК+, ICE, ОПЕК, PVM Oil Associates, Транснефть, НПЗ, Bloomberg, Flightradar, Ryanair, Lufthansa, Промсвязьбанк, ПСБ Locations: Нью-Йорк, Россия, Саудовская Аравия, Ливия, Европа, Испания, Мадрид, Финляндия, Франция, Нидерландах
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