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President Donald Trump meets business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, in November, 2017. Donald Trump's victory in U.S. elections has raised the specter of higher tariffs on China — but it may not be the only Asian country that faces this predicament, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S between January and September stands at $90 billion. U.S. data shows that the U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed to $279.11 billion in 2023, from $346.83 billion in 2016. Regardless of tariffs, Goldman still expects continued pressure for the relocation of certain supply chains from China to Southeast Asia, India or Mexico in particular.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Andrew Tilton, Tilton, Mr Trump, Trump's, Brian Tan, Mari Pangestu, Pangestu, Goldman Organizations: of, People, Pacific, Trump, U.S, United, Emerging Asia, Barclays Bank, FT Commodities Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Asia, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, South, United States, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, Indonesia, Trump, Southeast Asia
Those rules were designed to prevent a repeat of the abuses of Richard Nixon, who improperly used the Justice Department to punish his political enemies. A new president appoints roughly 300 senior Justice Department officials, including the U.S. attorneys who run offices across the country. All 300 must be confirmed by the Senate, but multiple former Justice Department officials said they fear Trump would install partisans willing to do his bidding. Justice Department officials have risen to the occasion and defied presidential overreach in the past. You go in and just whack a good portion of the workforce,” the former Justice Department official said.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, don’t, Richard Nixon, , , Joyce Vance, Barbara McQuade, Sen, JD Vance, Vance, Vance’s, Biden Justice Department’s, Hunter Biden, Robert Menendez, Eric Adams, Jack Smith, Aileen Cannon, Cannon, Jeffrey Clark, Clark, Mike Davis, influencer Benny Johnson’s, Davis, Joe Biden, Jan, gulag ”, ” Trump, ” Vance, “ Trump, Stephen Gillers, Gillers, Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, ” Gillers, Ilya Somin, Somin, Nixon, Archibald Cox, wouldn’t Organizations: NBC, Google, National Public Radio, NBC News, Justice Department, FBI, Trump, Department, U.S, Senate, Drug, Administration, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, DOJ, Biden Justice, Robert Menendez of New, New York, U.S . Capitol, ABC News, Republican, Politico, D.C, gulag, Service, NYU School of Law, George Mason University, senior Locations: U.S, Alabama, Ohio, Georgia, Robert Menendez of, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, New, , acquittals
People observe the scenery near Chinese national flags displayed for National Day celebrations on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. U.S. broadband providers had their networks breached in a cyberattack tied to the Chinese government that targeted wiretap requests, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday. The cyber breach, carried out by the Chinese hacking group known as Salt Typhoon, poses serious national security risks, the WSJ reported. Read The Wall Street Journal's article here.
Organizations: Wall Street, WSJ Locations: Chongqing, China, People's Republic of China, Western, U.S
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Monday blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for the stock market's dramatic plunge, months after claiming he deserved credit for the market's then-record upswing. The night before, as Asian markets fell dramatically, the former president wrote, "STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. "THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN," he wrote on Truth Social that month. "To take us back to a time when insurance companies had the power to deny people with preexisting conditions," the vice president said.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Kamala, Crooked Joe, Trump, Harris, KAMALA DOESN'T, BIDEN, Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Biden, We're, CNBC's Kevin Breuninger Organizations: Republican, Monday, Democratic, Dow Jones Industrial, TRUMP, BIDEN, WIN, CNBC, CBS, Trump Locations: United States, Atlanta, Georgia, America
Map: 4.8-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes New JerseyShake intensity The New York TimesA light, 4.8-magnitude earthquake struck in New Jersey on Friday, according to the United States Geological Survey. The quake was felt across the New York City metropolitan area, and from Philadelphia to Boston. Earthquakes Magnitude 4.5+ Others 1983 5.1 CANADA 1982 4.5 Vt. N.H. N.Y. Mass. Today’s earthquake Magnitude 4.8 Conn. Pa. 1964 4.5 1994 4.6 250-mile radius from New York City Md. Today’s earthquake Magnitude 4.8 Conn. R.I. Pa. 1964 4.5 1994 4.6 N.J. Md.
Persons: Lazaro Gamio Organizations: New York Times, United States Geological Survey, New, Maine CANADA, New York City Del Locations: New Jersey, New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, Whitehouse, N.J, N.H, N.Y, Pa, New York City Md, Del, Va, Maine, R.I, Md
Map: 7.4-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Taiwan
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( The New York Times | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Map: 7.4-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes TaiwanShake intensityA major, 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck the eastern coast of Taiwan on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey. The temblor happened at 7:58 a.m. Taipei time about 11 miles southwest of Hualien City, Taiwan, data from the agency shows. Aftershocks in the regionAn aftershock is usually a smaller earthquake that follows a larger one in the same general area. Aftershocks are typically minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.
Organizations: United States Geological Survey Locations: Taiwan, Taipei, Hualien City
“There are,’’ the Bank of England warns, “more consequences from falling prices than meets the eye.’’What could be so bad about lower prices? It is only now emerging from decades of falling prices that began with the collapse of its property and financial markets in the early 1990s. Mainly because falling prices tend to discourage consumers from spending. Why buy now, after all, if you can purchase what you want — cars, furniture, appliances, vacations — at a lower price later? If consumers were to pull back, en masse, to await lower prices, businesses would face intense pressure to cut prices even more to try to jump-start sales.
Persons: they're, that's, what's, Joe Biden's, ’ ’ Lisa Cook, , United States hasn’t, Tom Krisher Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Bank of England, United, España, Unemployed, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank for International, AP Locations: America, United States, Japan, Spanish, Detroit
Against the yen , the dollar bottomed at a roughly one-month trough of 148.94 in early Asian trade on Thursday. The euro and sterling held near one-month highs struck in the previous session and last bought $1.0902 and $1.2738 respectively. Market bets for imminent cuts also kept U.S. Treasury yields under pressure, with the two-year yield which typically reflects near-term rate expectations — last at 4.5640%. All of that left the greenback pinned near a one-month low against a basket of currencies. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.05% to $0.6133, while the Australian dollar edged 0.11% higher to $0.6572.
Persons: bitcoin, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, Powell, Simon Harvey Organizations: U.S, Federal, Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Fed, Canadian, Bank of Canada, BoC, Wednesday, New Zealand
A drilling rig operates in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, U.S., February 10, 2019. In response, drilling rates have fallen with an average of just 501 rigs drilling for oil in October 2023 down from 623 in December 2022. U.S. GAS PRODUCTIONLike oil production, U.S. gas output has also continued to increase, a lagged response to high prices in 2022, but the subsequent slump in prices has been more severe and is causing a more pronounced slowdown in output growth. The combination of fewer drilling rigs, slower production growth, faster exports, and ultra-low prices stimulating consumption by power generators has largely eliminated surplus inventories carried over from 2022. Related columns:- U.S. oil producers reprieved by Saudi output cut (October 3, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas output still rising in response to high prices last year (June 1, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Nick Oxford, John Kemp, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, “ Petroleum, Twitter, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Lea County , New Mexico, U.S, Gulf, Mexico, Chartbook, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Saudi
Dollar eyes weekly gain as U.S. economy stays robust
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was headed for a weekly gain on Friday, aided by solid U.S. growth figures that bolstered the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while the yen hovered on the weaker side of 150 per dollar ahead of a key policy meeting next week. That added to bets the Federal Reserve is likely to keep monetary conditions restrictive for longer, driving the dollar broadly higher against a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar index steadied at 106.57, having hit a three-week high of 106.89 in the previous session, and was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.4%. Sterling edged 0.07% higher to $1.21355, though was not too far from a three-week low of $1.2070 hit on Thursday. The European Central Bank, or ECB, on Thursday left interest rates unchanged as expected, ending an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes.
Persons: Lint, PMIs, Julien Lafargue, Tony Sycamore, we've, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, European Central Bank, ECB, Barclays Private Bank, Analysts, IG, Treasury, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Asia, Gaza, Tokyo
Dollar eyes weekly gain as US economy stays robust
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. That added to bets the Federal Reserve is likely to keep monetary conditions restrictive for longer, driving the dollar broadly higher against a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar index steadied at 106.57, having hit a three-week high of 106.89 in the previous session, and was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.4%. The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday left interest rates unchanged as expected, ending an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes. The yen last stood at 150.38 per dollar, languishing near the previous session's one-year trough of 150.78.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lint, PMIs, Julien Lafargue, Tony Sycamore, we've, we're, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, U.S, European Central Bank, ECB, Barclays Private Bank, Analysts, IG, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Gaza, Tokyo
WASHINGTON (AP) — A group of U.S. lawmakers wants the Biden administration to ban seafood processed in two Chinese provinces from entering the U.S. market. They also say that Chinese facilities using forced labor should be banned from doing business with American companies. It said the sanctions would be necessary to comply with U.S. laws prohibiting the entry of goods made with forced labor. The commission said there was also emerging evidence of up to 80,000 North Koreans working in seafood processing in the northeastern Chinese province of Liaoning. Beijing accuses Washington of using the issue as a pretext to curb its rise.
Persons: Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, Congressional, Commission, Department of Homeland Security, Koreans Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Xinjiang, Shandong, Chinese, Liaoning, Washington
Gathering in Granada, Spain, for a summit of the European Political Community, European leaders sought to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine amid Russia's full-scale invasion. He has insisted, however, that a majority of members across both major parties support funding Kyiv. "Ukraine needs the support of the European Union, which is sure, they will have it and we will increase it. "As far as I oversee the situation in the United States, I am very confident of support for Ukraine from the United States. Asked whether the EU could step in if the U.S. does not resume its support for Ukraine, Rutte said, "It is not necessary.
Persons: Josep Borrell, Jorge Guerrero, Joe Biden, Robert Fico, Washington's, Borrell, Viktor Bondarev, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Ursula von der Leyen, Biden, Mark Rutte, Rutte Organizations: EU, Representative, Union for Foreign Affairs, Palacio, Congreso, Afp, Getty, Political Community, Wednesday, Republican, U.S . Congress, European Union, Kyiv, Russia's Federation, Committee, Defense, Security, European Commission, Congresos, Political, Europa Press, Dutch, U.S . House, Representatives, Hague, Ukraine Locations: Granada, Spain, U.S, Ukraine, Europe, Russian, Slovakia, Kyiv, EU, America, Russia, Andalusia, United States, Netherlands
A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet equipped with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile flies over Red Square during a rehearsal for a flypast, part of a military parade marking the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 7, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Persons: Maxim Organizations: Nazi, REUTERS Locations: Russian, Nazi Germany, Moscow, Russia
No clear winner in US, China contest in the Pacific
  + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Kirsty Needham | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The United States and PNG signed a defence cooperation agreement in May. STRATEGIC CHESSBOARDThe events in Vanuatu this week highlighted the challenges Pacific nations face in seeking to benefit from both the United States and its allies, and China. The U.S. Coast Guard has yet to gain clearance to enter Vanuatu's port, as it does in other Pacific Islands, Coast Guard officials said. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manesseh Sogavare is also reluctant to accept U.S. support. The project was the largest infrastructure donation China had made to the Pacific Islands so far, Chinese ambassador Li Ming said at the ceremony.
Persons: Joe Biden, Louis Mapou, Hu'akavemeiliku Siaosi, Surangel Whipps, Kausea Natano, Samantha Power, Power, Washington, Lenora Qereqeretabua, Qereqeretabua, Ratu Jone Logavatu Kalouniwai, Denghua Zhang, Ishmael Kalsakau, Manesseh Sogavare, Sogavare, Li Ming, Kirsty Needham, Miral Organizations: U.S ., Country, New, Tonga's, Tuvalu's, United States, USAID, Pacific, Fiji Military Force, Australian National University, Vanuatu's, U.S . Coast Guard, Coast Guard, Solomon Islands, White, Solomon Islands National University, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Federated States, SYDNEY, China, Taiwan, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, United States, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Pacific, Australia, Vanuatu's, Solomon
The Biden administration is hunting for malicious computer code it believes China has hidden deep inside the networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases in the United States and around the world, according to American military, intelligence and national security officials. The discovery of the malware has raised fears that Chinese hackers, probably working for the People’s Liberation Army, have inserted code designed to disrupt U.S. military operations in the event of a conflict, including if Beijing moves against Taiwan in coming years. The malware, one congressional official said, was essentially “a ticking time bomb” that could give China the power to interrupt or slow American military deployments or resupply operations by cutting off power, water and communications to U.S. military bases. But its impact could be far broader, because that same infrastructure often supplies the houses and businesses of ordinary Americans, according to U.S. officials. The first public hints of the malware campaign began to emerge in late May, when Microsoft said it had detected mysterious computer code in telecommunications systems in Guam, the Pacific island with a vast American air base, and elsewhere in the United States.
Persons: Biden Organizations: People’s Liberation Army, Taiwan, Microsoft Locations: China, United States, Beijing, U.S, Guam
July 11 (Reuters) - Amazon.com (AMZN.O) hopes to tempt U.S. shoppers on Tuesday to open inflation-thinned wallets by offering deeper discounts on a wide range of goods and services during this year's "Prime Day" 48-hour shopping event, including its first-ever travel discounts. A year of inflation has lifted mortgage rates, rents and food prices for consumers ahead of Prime Day, which falls on July 11-12 this year. CFRA Research analyst Arun Sundaram said Amazon's U.S. Prime Day discounts this year are mostly deeper than in previous years. Amazon Prime members can also save up to 40% on items such as Sherpani bags and ZOA Energy drinks, by checking out using "Buy with Prime," directly from Amazon's third-party merchants. Amazon plans yet another Prime sales event this year, according to screenshots of its seller notification platform seen by Reuters.
Persons: Arun Sundaram, Michael Ashley Schulman, Schulman, Brian Gleason, Sundaram, Granth Vanaik, Ananya Mariam Rajesh, Arriana McLymore, David Gregorio Our Organizations: CFRA, Sony, Bank of America, Amazon, Energy, Amazon's, Adobe, Running, Capital Advisors, Exchange, Priceline's, Express, Walmart, Reuters, Thomson Locations: United States, Bengaluru, New York City
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - New data from the New York Federal Reserve shows underlying inflation may have slowed faster than the headline measures that have kept U.S. central bank officials poised for further interest rate increases. The New York Fed core trend also factors out the food and energy items that central bankers try to look beyond in assessing the direction of inflation. That's because recent data on rents, which have been moderating, gets incorporated faster into the New York Fed's estimates. From a monetary policy perspective, the new estimate could add fodder to arguments for being more cautious about further rate increases. Some policymakers have been concerned that the main measure of core inflation has shown little improvement; the New York Fed's alternate measure suggests that may be the result of temporary factors rather than a more persistent trend.
Persons: Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Reuters, New, Fed, New York Fed, York, Thomson Locations: York
FRANKFURT, June 22 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may mop up as much as 90% of the money they pumped into banks over the last decade now that high inflation and interest rates make that extra liquidity unnecessary, a paper by a Fed economist showed on Thursday. The world's two largest central banks have been raising interest rates at a brisk pace to fight inflation and unwinding some of their massive bond purchases, which flooded banks with cash when price growth was sluggish and borrowing costs already at zero. Neither scenario is entirely plausible in the near term as both the Fed and the ECB have a mix of government bonds and other types of debt on their balance sheet. The paper narrowly focuses on the supply and demand of reserves and the relative convenience of assets received by the central banks in return. ($1 = 0.9093 euros)Reporting by Francesco Canepa Editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Annette Vissing, Jorgensen, Francesco Canepa, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Portugal
JERUSALEM, June 17 (Reuters) - Israel could find acceptable an understanding between its arch-foe Iran and the United States if it includes rigorous supervision of Tehran's nuclear programme, a senior lawmaker said in comments aired on Saturday. According to Iranian and Western officials, Israel's main ally Washington is holding talks with Iran to sketch out steps that could include limiting the Iranian nuclear programme. No agreement with Iran would obligate Israel, which will do everything required to defend itself. "Our opposition to the deal - a return to the original (2015) deal - is working, I think." The U.S. government has dismissed reports it is seeking an interim deal with Tehran, which denies seeking the bomb.
Persons: Donald Trump, Yuli Edelstein, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Edelstein's, Netanyahu, Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel didn't, Hanegbi, Israel Hayom, Ron Dermer, Joe Biden's, Dan Williams, David Holmes Organizations: U.S . Congress, parliament's Foreign Affairs, Defence Committee, Press ., Israel, Strategic, AJC Global, Thomson Locations: Israel, Iran, United States, Washington, Tel Aviv, U.S, Tehran
FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 5, 2023. Traders now see a 63% chance the central bank will raise interest rates in July, up from 60% earlier on Wednesday, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 3.83 points, or 0.09%, to end at 4,372.84 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 53.16 points, or 0.39%, to 13,626.48. The S&P 500 health sector index and the S&P 500 managed healthcare index both fell. The S&P 500 is up about 14% so far in 2023, while the Nasdaq has climbed about 30%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Sam Stovall Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Market, CFRA Research, Traders, Nvidia, Broadcom, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, UnitedHealth, Universal Health Services, HCA Healthcare Locations: New York City, U.S
BEJUCAL, Cuba, June 14 (Reuters) - Just outside the sleepy Cuban village of Bejucal, a winding track, rutted with potholes and losing ground to the jungle, ends at a barbed wire fence. The question of Chinese spying from Cuba was renewed last week following a Wall Street Journal report. China, Washington’s top geopolitical rival, on Monday denied it was using Cuba as a spy base. [1/5] A truck passes by a sign at the entrance of Bejucal, Cuba, June 12, 2023. Onelvis Despaigne, 36, a farm worker who lives just outside the base, told Reuters on Monday he had not heard the recent foreign media reports on Chinese spying.
Persons: Biden, Bejucal, Arnaldo Perez, Dave Sherwood, Perez, motioning, Marco Rubio, Havana “, Fulton Armstrong, , Armstrong, Vladimir Putin, Onelvis Despaigne, Matt Spetalnick, Adam Jourdan, Don Durfee, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Reuters, Federal Communications Commission, Communist Party, FCC, Security, Commission, ARCOS, U.S . Department of Homeland Security, Justice Department ., Guantanamo, Base, White House National Security Council, REUTERS, Cuban Missile, Soviet Union, U.S, Cuban, CIA, Thomson Locations: BEJUCAL, Cuba, Cuban, Bejucal, China, Beijing, States, Key West , Florida, U.S, United States, Justice Department . China, Havana, Soviet, Moscow, Marco Rubio of Florida, Caribbean, Taiwan Strait, South China, Russia, Ukraine, Lourdes, Washington
Detroit wisely gives up to Tesla this time
  + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Rallying around Tesla’s design will help. The partnership will also likely kill off competing standards - Tesla, Ford and GM accounted for three-quarters of electric cars sold in 2022, according to Experian. Apple (AAPL.O) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O) Google offer software that replaces the infotainment system and Tesla wants others to adopt its self-driving technology. Barra and Farley have given the tech upstarts an inch; Tesla and Big Tech will try to take the next mile. Tesla said in November that it would open its charging design for use by other companies.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Tesla, Mary Barra, Jim Farley, Farley, Jennifer Saba, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, General Motors, automaker Ford Motor, Elon Musk’s, Ford, Apple, Google, Big Tech, Tesla’s, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: North America, Canadian, Detroit
[1/2] Apr 18, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) with guard Devin Booker (1) against the Los Angeles Clippers during game two of the 2023 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsApril 28 (Reuters) - The NBA's Phoenix Suns and WNBA's Phoenix Mercury announced a new television and streaming rights deal for their basketball games on Friday, over the objection of the bankrupt U.S. sports broadcaster that currently televises Suns regular-season games. "Cord cutters, cable subscribers, fans with an antenna – everyone will be able to watch Suns and Mercury games," Ishbia said in a statement. The Phoenix Suns current television broadcast partner Diamond Sports Group said it would oppose the deal. The Suns and Mercury did not disclose financial terms of the new broadcast deal or the terms of the current Diamond Sports contract.
Debt crisis is a scary white swan for US economy
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
If Democrats and Republicans can’t agree to lift the government’s borrowing limit, the country could suffer an unprecedented and catastrophic default on its debt. The standoff over the debt ceiling is a white swan, or an entirely predictable, very frequent event that has the potential to be as catastrophic as its darker sibling. That is why, in all past scuffles over government borrowing, Congress ended up raising or suspending the debt ceiling. Uncertainty over the timing of the agreement led to the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Failure to lift the debt ceiling soon can spark a vicious cycle of market anxiety, rising borrowing costs and bank stress.
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