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—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: LRCX, Katie Stockton Organizations: Nvidia, ASML Holdings, Lam Research, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: U.S
They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. "Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it'll be a little more of the status quo," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. This could "slow the pace of the AI revolution," he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win "more bullish" for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the former president.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Roger McNamee, Harris, Trump, Trump — Harris, it'll, Jay Woods, McNamee, Vivek Arya, Joe Rogan, Arya, Ed Mills, Raymond James, of America's Brad Sills, Raymond James ' Mills, Dan Ives, Trump's, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Capital's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Elevation Partners, Tech, Antitrust, Google, Justice Department, Trump, Freedom Capital, Bank of America, PHLX Semiconductor, Democrat, Republican, SOX, Devices, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Intel, of America's, Microsoft, Oracle, Wedbush Securities, Investors Locations: stoke, Taiwan, China, Washington
Leading technology stocks led an eye-popping rebound rally the past five days, driving a key ETF texchange traded fund to one of its best weeks in years. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) surged 8.2% this week, the most since Nov. 11, 2022, when the fund gained 10.04%. XLK YTD mountain Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) performance this year. Investors can thank a bounce back in megacap technology and semiconductor stocks this week that lifted all three major U.S. stock indexes. That alone suggests semiconductor stocks have lost their leadership status, at least for now, Turnquist said.
Persons: ChatGPT, Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Goldman Sachs, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist Organizations: texchange, Microsoft, Nvidia, Technology, Apple, Apple Watch, Semiconductor, Broadcom, LPL Financial, PHLX Semiconductor Locations: XLK
Read previewNvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang is in Taiwan this week, where he's getting rockstar reception and boosting the stock market. The drills started on Thursday, but Taiwan's stock market was little changed over the period. "In this case, the AI equity theme, physical investment in AI, and the wider upturn in electronic component demand are driving robust Taiwanese growth and the strong stock market performance," wrote Green. He added that an outright invasion of Taiwan by China is "very unlikely" due to high military and economic risk. "If the macro backdrop is positive and China remains far from achieving 'fortress-like' economic conditions, future sell-offs may offer attractive buying opportunities," Green wrote.
Persons: , Jensen Huang, Huang, Li Xi, Morris Chang, Lisa Su —, Pat Gelsinger, Cristiano Amon, Rene Haas, Rory Green, It's, Green Organizations: Service, China's People's Liberation Army, Business, Local, rockstar, Asus, AMD, Qualcomm, Semiconductor, PLA, Investors, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Nvidia Locations: Taiwan, China, Beijing, TSMC, Taipei, Taiwan's, GlobalData.TS, Ukraine, Russia
Cadence Design Systems is well ahead of its artificial intelligence peers when it comes to delivering steady returns, according to Bank of America. The electronic systems design company is a "high-quality growth compounder" that's "well levered to AI," analyst Vivek Arya said in a Wednesday note to clients. Cadence develops software, hardware and intellectual property that is used to design chips and printed circuit boards, among other related products. "Over the past decade CDNS has delivered 33% annualized returns, 300bps ahead of rival SNPS , and among top 5 across our coverage, well-ahead of SOX index up 25%. Importantly, CDNS stock has outperformed the SOX index each of the 18 times the SOX index declined by over 10% since 2010."
Persons: Vivek Arya, Arya, CDNS Organizations: Cadence Design Systems, Bank of America, Cadence, PHLX Semiconductor, SOX, Nvidia, AMD, Samsung Locations: SOX
Semiconductor stocks are off to another hot start to the year. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 28.5% in the first three months of 2024. That puts the SMH on pace for its biggest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2023, when it jumped 30%. The stock is up more than 30% to start 2024. Shares have skyrocketed more than 39% to start 2024, helped by strong sales in high bandwidth memory necessary in AI infrastructure.
Persons: Ken Mahoney, Nvidia, Hendi, Management's Paul Meeks, Andrew Garthwaite cautioning Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Asset, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple, Devices, JPMorgan, PHLX Semiconductor, Intel, Micron Technology, Micron, UBS, Universal Locations: Taiwan
Semiconductor stocks got a lift from the rising tide of artificial intelligence. The divergence between semiconductor stocks that are doing well and those that aren't is becoming starker, UBS said. It's "increasingly hard to place all semiconductor stocks in one single bucket," UBS said in a March 5 note. "The performance divergence between semiconductor stocks has been strong [year-to-date] and warrants attention," it added. UBS said while one group of stocks has "significantly" outperformed — artificial intelligence-related semiconductor stocks and semiconductor capital equipment stocks (excluding China) — another group has "materially trailed" — analog and microcontroller semiconductor companies.
Persons: It's Organizations: PHLX Semiconductor, UBS Locations: China
The hottest artificial intelligence event of the year kicks off next week, setting the stage for key AI players to see sharp moves. Nvidia's GTC Conference, dubbed "AI Woodstock" by Bank of America, offers an opportunity for the company to showcase its latest AI chip innovations and future vision as it labors to maintain its dominance in the field. The product is expected to offer a slew of "architectural innovations" and better performance than Nvidia's flagship H100 chip, wrote New Street's Pierre Ferragu. According to Wedbush's Matt Bryson, the new chip could benefit the liquid cooling industry that may fuel power-hungry data centers. "As such, we believe any system NVDA announces that includes liquid cooling technology could effectively dictate the path of liquid cooling moving forwards and thereby determining winners and losers in the server and cooling space," Bryson said.
Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J, Bank of America's Arya, Muse, Arya, Pierre Ferragu, Blackwell, Matt Bryson, Nvidia hasn't, Bryson, He's, Ferragu, Hans Mosesmann, Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon, Melius Research's Ben Reitzes Organizations: Bank of America, NVIDIA, Nvidia, Bank of America's, Blackwell, Devices, AMD, Intel, Micron, Broadcom, PHLX Semiconductor, Oracle Locations: San Jose , California
Bank of AmericaIn the note, Hartnett laid out more evidence that a bubble could be developing in stocks. The current real 10-year rate is 1.6%, according to Fed data. Hartnett said a falling number of job quitters shows a weakening labor market, hence the Fed's apparent willingness to cut rates soon. February's inflation data will be released next week, but January's data showed that prices are still rising at a pesky pace of 3.1%, above the Fed's stated goal of 2%. Whether a Fed pivot is a good thing for investors depends on just how cool labor market data becomes.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, quitters, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, it's, Grindal Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PHLX Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Bank of America's, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ned, Ned Davis Research
Thank the "Magnificent Seven" stocks for the S & P 500 's bounce to record levels in 2024 . "It's a bet on secular growth," said Truist's Keith Lerner. "AI stocks … are going bonkers," he said. "People see a secular growth story even with all the different type of cross-currents in the economy, interest rates and markets," he said. "However, strong secular tailwinds from Gen AI could extend the rally well beyond the typical 2-year up-cycles, in our view."
Persons: Truist's Keith Lerner, It's, Adam Sarhan, Lerner, , Ed Yardeni, Raymond James, Srini Pajjuri, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Investments, Devices, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Semiconductor, Yardeni, SOX, stoke
Micron Technology (MU) is a stock to watch within the semiconductor industry, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday. Cramer's comments Monday came after Deutsche Bank analysts upgraded Micron shares to buy, from hold. Micron stock climbed modestly in Monday trading. Cramer suggested that if the conditions Deutsche Bank analysts describe are correct, "this group is a leadership group." The Club just did an in-depth report on all 11 sectors of the market, the industries within those sectors, and where the 35 stocks owned by Cramer's Trust fit in.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Micron Technology, AMD, Micro Devices, Micron, Deutsche Bank, Nvidia, Broadcom, Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Information Technology, Cramer's Trust
Arm CEO Rene Haas and executives cheer, as Softbank's Arm, chip design firm, holds an initial public offering (IPO) at Nasdaq Market site in New York, U.S., September 14, 2023. Arm's Nasdaq debut on Thursday looks good for SoftBank, which just spun the company out after acquiring it in 2016. The UK-based chip design company saw its stock jump 25% to $63.59 after its IPO, lifting the company's fully diluted market cap to almost $68 billion. For now, there's not a big open market for Arm's stock. Of the $4.9 billion worth of shares SoftBank sold, $735 million were purchased by a group of strategic investors including Apple , Google , Nvidia, Samsung and Intel .
Persons: Rene Haas, Jay Ritter, there's, SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, We've, CNBC's David Faber, Matt Oguz, it's, , Oguz, Kif Leswing, SoftBank's Masayoshi, Arm's Rene Haas Organizations: Nasdaq, Wall, Nvidia, Semiconductor, U.S, University of Florida, Apple, Google, Samsung, Intel, Venture Science, AMD Locations: New York, U.S
Arm, the chip design firm that supplies core technology to companies including Apple and Nvidia , priced its initial public offering at $51 a share. Arm's fully diluted market cap, which includes outstanding restricted stock units, is over $54 billion at the $51 offer price. Arm's valuation for a chip company is exceedingly rich when compared to any player in the market other than Nvidia. At $54 billion, Arm would carry a price-to-earnings multiple of about 104, based on profit in the latest fiscal year. Correction: A prior version of this story had the incorrect IPO priceWATCH: Arm reportedly prices IPO at $52 per share
Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, U.S, Google, Samsung, AMD, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Based on his price objective of $650 per share, Arya's forecast implies nearly 44% upside from Monday's closing price of $451.78. Since the beginning of 2023, Nvidia's forays into AI have vaulted its stock price over 209%. But even Nvidia has not been immune to growing investor concerns around rising U.S.-China tensions, weakening industrial activity, and the sustainability in demand for generative AI products. Over the long term, the analyst expects Nvidia's earnings potential and several catalysts will continue to drive its share price higher. He warned investors may be "overlooking" these factors, which include the company's expanding product offerings, especially those within the generative AI space.
Persons: Vivek Arya, Arya, CNBC's Michael Bloom, Samantha Subin Organizations: of America, Nvidia, Semiconductor, AMD Locations: China
Missed quarterly results and light guidance from Analog Devices (ADI) is a reminder that it's not sunshine and rainbows across the entire chip industry, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wednesday. If you like this story, sign up for Jim Cramer's Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free. "Remember, there are semis that aren't hitting it out of the park," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." Analog's industrial and automotive segments — its two largest by revenue — reported good numbers Wednesday morning, Cramer said. The main culprit for the disappointment is its consumer business, Cramer added, pointing to concerns about spending on personal electronics.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Cramer Organizations: Devices, PHLX Semiconductor, Nvidia, Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC
Taiwan Semiconductor is facing business snags that are weighing on its earnings and stock. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Unfortunately for TSMC — and the chip sector at large — this doesn't exactly come as a surprise. The PHLX Semiconductor Index dipped more than 3.5% Thursday, with every name in the batch closing in the red. Wall Street, for its part, expects Apple's iPhone sales to drop 4% in the fiscal year up to September, according to the Journal.
Persons: It's, TSMC —, Mark Liu, ChatGPT, TSMC Organizations: Taiwan Semiconductor, Service, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Semiconductor Industry, Wall Street Journal, PHLX, Investors Locations: Taiwan, Wall, Silicon, Arizona
NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - Short sellers in U.S. shares related to the semiconductor industry are down $18.31 billion in mark-to-market losses for the year to date, including $7.2 billion in losses since last week's rally in Nvidia's stock (NVDA.O), according to financial data firm S3 Partners. The PHLX semiconductor sector index (.SOX) gained roughly 15% in May and hit an over one-year high. "The Semiconductor sectors have been an investing desert for short sellers," S3 Partners analysts wrote in the report this week. In addition, S3 cited Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL.O), Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) and Ambarella Inc (AMBA.O) among stocks prone to a short squeeze. "We expect short covering in these stocks as short sellers look to trim their exposure and limit future mark-to-market losses if these stocks continue to rally," S3 analysts said.
Persons: Caroline Valetkevitch, Lance Tupper, Will Dunham Organizations: YORK, Partners, SOX, Semiconductor, Nvidia, Devices, Marvell Technology Inc, Broadcom Inc, Ambarella Inc, Thomson
CNBC Pro trawled through Wall Street research to look for semiconductor stocks that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect will grow in value. Morgan Stanley In an April 24 note, Morgan Stanley said it expects a "headwind for most broad based companies" toward the second half of the year. Wolfspeed : Morgan Stanley said execution "will be key" as the company creates new manufacturing capacity. ON Semiconductor : Morgan Stanley said the company could have an earnings stream that is "likely more recession proof than the higher end analog names." Goldman Sachs Goldman named two buy-rated semiconductor stocks in an April 23 report: KLA Corporation and Impinj .
Micron (MU.O) shares shot up 7.2%, boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and leading gains in the PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX), which closed 3.3% higher. Lululemon surges after strong reoprtThe bulk of S&P 500 companies begin reporting on the first quarter in mid-April. On Monday, regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares scooped up the assets of Silicon Valley Bank. Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, told Congress the scope of blame for Silicon Valley Bank's failure stretches across bank executives. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 135 new lows.
Micron (MU.O) shares were up 7%, boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and leading gains in the PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX), which was up 2.6%. The memory chip maker late Tuesday forecast a drop in third-quarter revenue in line with Wall Street expectations, while it gave a rosy outlook for 2025 with artificial intelligence boosting sales. Micron is sort of a microcosm of the global economy because their chips go into so many different industries and sectors. The bulk of S&P 500 companies begin reporting on the first quarter after mid-April. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 57 new highs and 113 new lows.
Four Club holdings — including Meta Platforms (META) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) — are among the 12 best-positioned stocks right now, investment bank Bernstein told clients Wednesday. A third characteristic shared by all 12 stock is not being a so-called "crowded trade," as measured by Bernstein's Crowding Model. Meta Platforms Bernstein's take: Meta's aggressive cost-cutting efforts are likely factored into the social media giant's stock price in full, according to the firm. Pioneer Natural Resources Bernstein's take: Pioneer has "the simplest and most reliable" operating model within the energy sector, analysts wrote. Devon Energy Bernstein's take: The firm sees Devon as the best "turnaround story" in the U.S. shale sector, noting that past performance has sometimes been "marred by shaky strategic decisions."
Although chip stocks have broadly rebounded this year , Citi warns that they could be about to hit new lows as companies trim guidance. Given this "defensive stance," the analyst said Analog Devices remains its top pick in this environment, describing it as the "most defensive name." Citi also named a few semiconductor stocks to consider once the dark times are over. Analog Devices, Micron, ON Semi and GlobalFoundries are all buy-rated by the bank. The bank gives Analog Devices, ON Semi, and GlobalFoundries each around 22% upside potential.
Activist hedge fund manager Dan Loeb takes a passive stake in AMD
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The hedge fund manager took the bet when AMD shares struggled, according to sources. AMD shares have underperformed the rest of the sector over the last 12 months, down more than 30% as the PHLX Semiconductor Index declined 14%. Third Point's Dan Loeb has taken a passive stake in chipmaker AMD , sources told CNBC's Scott Wapner. AMD recently reported fourth quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, but guided for a 10% decline in year-over-year sales in the current quarter. The semiconductor sector has been grappling with lower consumer demand for finished electronics and gluts of parts needed to make PCs and servers.
Nvidia Cracks Wall Street’s AI Code
  + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Dan Gallagher | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Shares of Nvidia, led by CEO Jensen Huang, rose 42% since the first of the year through Wednesday. Given all the talk about Nvidia ’s opportunity in ChatGPT’s world, the chip maker is at least highly motivated to show that it isn’t just hot air. Nvidia’s stock price soared 42% since the first of the year through Wednesday—the best performance on the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which was up by a mere 14%. And that was ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results, which were widely expected to reflect the same weakness in PC and data center spending that has hit rivals Intel and Advanced Micro Devices .
The once-hot chip sector was hit hard in 2022, with the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index falling around 37% over the year. And one name keeps coming up as a top pick: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). But analysts overall remain positive, with 90% of those covering the stock giving it a buy rating, according to FactSet, and average price target upside of 37%. Morgan Stanley also named TSMC as a top pick in a December note, giving it a price target of $700, or upside of 55%. It explained that the semiconductor industry must continue to invest at a high level in order to achieve future growth, however "investment efficiency" has deteriorated.
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