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☆ European Central Bank holds rates and trims its inflation forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - NOVEMBER 27: Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks during the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Nevember 27, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to speed up the shrinking of its balance sheet. The latest staff macroeconomic projections see average real GDP expanding 0.6% in 2023, from a prior forecast of 0.7%. Headline inflation is meanwhile seen averaging 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Members see core inflation, excluding energy and food, averaging 5% this year and 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.1% in 2026.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dursun Aydemir, James Smith, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Getty, ECB, ING Locations: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, Brussels, Belgium, Anadolu

☆ European Central Bank to focus on shrinking balance sheet as markets bet on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFRANKFURT — The European Central Bank meets this week with investors closely monitoring to see when the Frankfurt institution might start to cut interest rates. "Nonetheless, markets will probably have to correct some of their overoptimistic rate cut expectations once the ECB has spoken this Thursday." watch nowMoney markets are currently pricing in almost 150 basis points of rate cuts next year. The PEPP, or the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, is a flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, Isabel Schnabel, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, FRANKFURT, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Berenberg

☆ ECB's Holzmann tells paper he wants cut in PEPP reinvestments from March
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

European Central Bank policymaker and Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann addresses the media in Vienna, Austria, March 23, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsVIENNA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers should discuss at their meeting next month whether to wind down bond reinvestments under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme early, Austrian Governor Robert Holzmann said in remarks published on Friday. "My suggestion would be to reduce reinvestments step by step as of March," Holzmann told Austrian newspaper Die Presse. Those reinvestments are slated to run until the end of 2024 but some policymakers have made the case for starting to wind them down early. Reporting by Francois Murphy; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, Leonhard Foeger, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Francois Murphy, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Austrian National Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Austrian, Die Presse, Thomson Locations: Vienna, Austria, Austrian

☆ ECB breaks record streak of rate hikes as economy weakens
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsATHENS, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank broke the longest streak of interest rate hikes in its 25-year history on Thursday, saying the latest data continued to point to inflation slowly coming down to its 2% target. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said. This sharp policy tightening is leaving a mark on the economy, with data earlier this week showing weak credit creation and economic activity. ($1 = 0.9480 euros)Reporting By Leftheris Papadimas Writing by Francesco Canepa Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde's, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

European flags are seen in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. Price pressures are easing and the economy is slowing to a point that a recession may already be underway, making any further rate hikes increasingly unlikely. Meeting in Athens for the first time in over a decade, the Governing Council is expected to have an easy time deciding on rates. Others argue that growth prospects are deteriorating so quickly that the ECB would be better served with a "neutral" guidance, emphasizing data dependency. This suggests that any change in the scheme will be gradual, so the ECB can protect Italy as long as possible.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Martin Wolburg, Wolburg, Frederik Ducrozet, reinvestments, Balazs Koranyi, Emelia Sithole Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, Generali Investments, Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, Athens, Italy

ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany

☆ ECB's Stournaras interview with Reuters
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Member of the ECB governing council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras talks during an interview with Reuters in Athens, Greece, October 11, 2023. The rise in bond yields means that financial conditions are even tighter Than before given monetary policy decisions. A: I think we should act only based on monetary policy reasons and justifications. And for the moment I see no reason why we should tighten monetary policy now because increasing the minimum requirements will imply monetary policy tightening. So, we have a pipeline of monetary policy tightening which has been decided in the past.

Persons: Yannis Stournaras, Louisa Gouliamaki, European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras, it's, I'm, reinvestments, Francesco Canepa Organizations: Bank of Greece, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank policymaker, ECB, European Commission, Governing, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, Europe, Israel, Italy

Because higher yields signal a rise in borrowing costs, the selloff has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of Italy's huge debt pile. Meloni has said she is not worried by the rise in yields, saying: "Italy is solid." Most of the sources said there is no hurry to end reinvestments or even to formally open this discussion on the policy-making Governing Council. Some argued that PEPP reinvestments should end before any talk of a rate cut, now expected by markets around mid-2024. Spreads of Italian 10-year bonds over their German counterparts are up roughly 30 basis points this month in their biggest jump since last December.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Giorgia, Christine Lagarde, Meloni, PEPP, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

☆ Italy's deficit hikes could threaten its credit rating - Scope
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Sara Rossi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The eligibility of Italian securities under the ECB's TPI "is a key driver of its BBB+/Stable credit rating," Scope said. It will review its rating of Italy's debt on Dec. 1. More specifically, countries must respect the EU's economic prescriptions, have a sustainable public debt, and not show any macroeconomic imbalances. RATING AGENCIES' TESTBefore Scope assesses Italy's rating in December, the country faces scrutiny from several larger agencies. From mid-October to mid-November, S&P Global, DBRS, Fitch and Moody's all have the euro zone's third largest economy up for review in what analysts say will be key tests for the stability of Italian bond yields.

Persons: Giorgia, Christine Lagarde, DBRS, Fitch, Sara Rossi, Gavin Jones, Andrew Heavens Organizations: MILAN, Central, Reuters, ECB, P, Italian Treasury, European Union, TPI, European, Thomson Locations: Italy, Italian, Rome

☆ No strong case for jacking up bank charges: ECB's Wunsch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Sept 21 (Reuters) - There are no strong arguments for the European Central Bank to increase mandatory reserves for banks, Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday, weighing in on a key debate about a potential move to tighten policy further. The ECB cut to zero the rate it pays to banks on mandatory reserves earlier this year. Some policymakers are now pushing for an increase in the reserve requirement, in part to reduce losses associated with the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks. "I don't see any strong argument for using movements in the reserve requirements when we still have this huge portfolio (of bonds) that we can reduce," Wunsch told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. But Wunsch said that reducing central bank losses should not be the objective of monetary policy and changing the rules now could make commercial banks wary of taking part in future stimulus schemes.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Banks, Divya Chowdhury, Balazs Koranyi, Jane Merriman, Chizu Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Belgian, Mumbai

A view shows the placards of the political parties in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt, Germany, September 14, 2023. The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already raised interest rates 10 times to record levels but inflation remains well above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that policymakers had not discussed the bond-buying schemes at their latest policy meeting. She described the PEPP as the ECB's "first line of defence" to preserve policy transmission - central bank jargon for bond market stability in the most indebted countries. Slovenian central bank governor Bostjan Vasle recently backed selling bonds bought under the ECB's older Asset Purchase Programme, which is less flexible than the PEPP.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Christine Lagarde, Bostjan Vasle, Peter Kazimir, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, FRANKFURT, Athens, Slovenian, PEPP, Sintra

Traders cheered the expected end of rate hikes that have raised borrowing costs from minus 0.5% in just over a year. That sent euro zone government bond yields tumbling, the euro down and stocks (.STOXX) higher. The ECB cut its outlook for euro area growth this year to 0.7%, while economists polled by Reuters expect growth of 0.6%. A market rally is also likely unwelcome to the ECB. Hawkish policymakers have started calling for an earlier end to PEPP reinvestments, and the ECB is likely to begin a debate on furthering its balance-sheet runoff with rate hikes likely done.

Persons: Charles Diebel, Simon Bell, Jason Simpson, Anna Stupnytska, reinvesting, Mediolanum's Diebel, reinvestments, Divyang Shah, Christine Lagarde, Shah, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Mediolanum Asset Management, ECB, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, State, Fidelity International, Thomson Locations: Italy, Germany

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

☆ ECB to stop reinvesting cash in largest bond scheme
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The Governing Council will keep reducing the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme portfolio at a measured and predictable pace," it said. "In line with these principles, the Governing Council expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July 2023." Redemptions fluctuate, but about 148 billion euros' worth of debt held under the APP expires in the second half of the year. That means a halt to reinvestment would see an extra 58 billion euros' worth of maturities on top of the currently scheduled 15 billion euros per month. At 7.7 trillion euros, the ECB's balance sheet is already more than a trillion euros below its peak size but remains well above its historical average.

☆ ECB's Holzmann calls for four more 50 bps rate hikes- Handelsblatt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, March 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings as inflation is proving to be stubborn, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann told German business daily Handelsblatt. The ECB has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July and flagged a 50 basis point increase for March. Holzmann, an outspoken conservative - or hawk in policy terms - however said that based on current trends, he would favour 50 basis point moves in March, May, June and July. "I expect it to take a very long time for inflation to come down," Holzmann was quoted on Monday as saying. The four steps advocated by Holzmann would take the deposit rate to 4.5%, well above the 4% peak rate priced in by markets, a level no other policymaker has so far advocated in public.

☆ Analysis: Traders relaxed as ECB starts running down massive bond holdings
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

So far traders are optimistic, comforted by an initially small pace of bond sales and a predictable structure. U.S. and UK central banks have started QT, although the Bank of England was forced to delay its plans following turmoil in British bond markets last year. said DZ Bank's head of government bond trading Dalibor Jarnevic. If APP reinvestments stop before the end of 2024, ECB market presence would rely on reinvestments under the more flexible Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Whatever the size or pace, traders are seeking opportunities as the ECB makes the shift to QT.

☆ ECB to start offloading bond holdings in March
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will do so by not reinvesting part of its maturing bond holdings. More detailed parameters for the reduction will be provided at its February meeting, the ECB said. "The asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace," the ECB said in a statement. The 3.3 trillion euros of purchases made under the APP account for the bulk of the ECB's debt holdings. Investors will now watch for further details expected at ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 1345 GMT news conference.

The ECB, which bought 5 trillion euros of bonds ($4.9 trillion) over the past decade to lift low inflation, now finds itself battling record high inflation at 10%. "This consideration also makes the practical implementation of ECB QT significantly harder," BofA said. That would reduce its balance sheet by a "manageable" 155 billion euros in 2023 and 300 billion euros in 2024, ING reckons. An eventual wind-down of PEPP holdings could add to balance sheet reductions in 2025 worth a total 388 billion euros, ING said. AllianceBernstein portfolio manager Nick Sanders said he was "sceptical" how the ECB could achieve QT with those protections in place.

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