REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months, though not as sharply as forecast previously, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters, who said for a fourth month running in even greater numbers that the 10-year note yield had peaked.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield breached the 5% mark last month for the first time since July 2007, more than a full percentage point above its August low of 3.96%.
Yet, when asked whether the 10-year note yield had peaked in the current cycle, an overwhelming 94% majority of respondents, 30 of 32, said it had.
The interest-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield , currently at 5.04%, was expected to decline about 20 basis points by end-January, before falling to 4.00% in a year, according to the survey.
If realized, this would mean a complete reversal of the inverted spread between yields of U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - historically a reliable indicator of impending recession - by end-October 2024.
Persons:
Dado Ruvic, Thomas Simons, Mike Sanders, Sarupya Ganguly, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Anitta Sunil, Sujith Pai, Christina Fincher
Organizations:
REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Jefferies, Madison Investments, Thomson
Locations:
U.S, Israel