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The rate of inflation has shown signs of easing, following the highest spike in four decades. Yet the shock of rising prices continues to have an impact on consumers' psyches. The nonprofit think tank's consumer confidence index declined in May amid "gloomy" expectations. Meanwhile, expectations for inflation were stable, but still high, with inflation expected to average 6.1% over the next 12 months. "When anecdotally we ask consumers what's your top concern on the economy, prices and inflation still come out as the top concern," Ozyildirim said.
Persons: Ataman Ozyildirim, Ozyildirim Organizations: The Conference Board, Finance, Social, Conference Board Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: The A.I. rally is too narrow
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Everyone else, however, is a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Everyone else, however, isn't so much a loser, but a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Persons: Wood, We're, Andrew Smith, Javed Mirza, Ataman Ozyildirim, we've Organizations: NVIDIA, CNBC, . Semiconductor, Nvidia, Marvell, Broadcom, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Delos Capital Advisors, Conference, The Conference Board Locations: Taipei, Dallas, Canada, U.S
CNBC Daily Open: The A.I. rally's too narrow
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Everyone else, however, is a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Everyone else, however, isn't so much a loser, but a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Wood, We're, Andrew Smith, Javed Mirza, Ataman Ozyildirim, we've Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, . Semiconductor, Marvell, Broadcom, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Delos Capital Advisors, Conference, The Conference Board Locations: Taipei, Dallas, Canada, U.S
Americans are getting worried about the job market
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington, DC CNN —US consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans become more pessimistic about the job market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which measures attitudes toward the economy and the job market, fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and marking the lowest level since July 2022. “Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”That matches government figures showing the labor market has begun to show some cracks. Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, the smallest gain in two years, and job openings fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021.
US consumer confidence improved in March
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
The business group’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 104.2 in March from an upwardly revised reading of 103.4 the month before. The March headline index saw a boost from consumers’ improved levels of confidence for the six-month-ahead time frame. The Expectations Index increased to 73 from 70.4 in February, while the Present Situation Index dipped to 151.1 from 153. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Although the two indexes typically track similarly over time, the consumer confidence index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions, while the Michigan sentiment index has a greater emphasis on household finances and the impact of inflation.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesA monthly gauge of what could lie ahead for the U.S. economy is flashing a recession warning sign. The Leading Economic Index dipped by 0.4% in September from August and is down 2.8% since March, according to the Conference Board, an independent group that publishes the index. The latest reading is below a threshold that the organization considers a recession signal. watch nowInitial jobless claims — another data point used in the index — also do not point to the kind of broad-based job loss that comes with a recession. "There are pockets of the labor market that have shed jobs, but it's not widespread job loss," he said.
However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.
Assuming no change in the labor force, that would mean around 1.2 million more people will be unemployed. "And it's really, at this point, like telling the tide not to come in -- to expect the labor market to soften." As the unemployment rate rises, workers lose bargaining power for higher wages and households pull back on spending. Powell has said that prolonged and entrenched high inflation would be even worse than moderate increases in the unemployment rate. "If we want to set ourselves up, light the way to another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us.
New York, NY (CNN) A comprehensive gauge on the health of the US economy dropped in August for the sixth straight month, reinforcing concerns about a possible recession. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index for the United States dipped last month. Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at The Conference Board, said the six-month slump for this index is "potentially signaling a recession." "Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures," Ozyildirim said, adding that The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.
New York, NY CNN —A comprehensive gauge on the health of the US economy dropped in August for the sixth straight month, reinforcing concerns about a possible recession. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index for the United States dipped last month. “Recession dynamics are building steam,” Gurleen Chadha, US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Thursday. However, many economists say the jobs market remains too strong for the US economy to be in a recession. During recessions, businesses resort to widespread layoffs, and economic reports indicate that is not happening right now.
REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic activity declined for a sixth straight month in August, potentially signaling a recession amid large interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. The Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index fell 0.3% last month after decreasing 0.5% in July. "Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the U.S. economy and is likely to contract," said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior economics director at the Conference Board in Washington. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters." It signaled more large increases to come this year.
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