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ArizonaResult: Trump 52.2%; Harris 46.7%Margin: Trump +186,138Two counties in Arizona make up the lion’s share of the population. After losing Arizona’s Latino vote by 24 points to Biden, Trump slashed his deficit to just 10 points this time. In some of these counties, Harris actually did improve on Biden’s performance, significantly. About 450 miles northwest of Vegas, in the state’s other major population center, in and around Reno in Washoe County, Trump also made strides. PennsylvaniaResult: Trump 50.4%; Harris 48.6%Vote margin: Trump +125,325Overall, Pennsylvania shifted 3 points to Trump between 2020 and 2024.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s, Harris, Biden, Harry Truman, Trump, It’s, Barack Obama, Harris ’, Henry, Harris underperformed, hasn’t, Clark —, —, Clark, Hoke, Obama, Hillary Clinton, they’ve, Dane County, Dane Organizations: Democratic, Arizona, Trump, Republican, Maricopa, Biden, Fort Apache, Democrats, Trump ., Atlanta counties, GOP, Michigan, Grand Traverse, ’, Wayne, American, Clark, NBC News, Puerto Ricans, Democratic Party, Milwaukee Locations: Arizona, Maricopa County, Phoenix, Maricopa, Pima County, Tucson , Pima, Trump’s Arizona, Navajo, Apache County, Trump, Georgia, Atlanta, Douglas, Newton, Rockdale, Fulton, Gwinnett, DeKalb, Forsyth, Michigan, Lower, Grand, Traverse, Lake Michigan, Wayne, Black Detroit, Detroit’s, Dearborn, Israel, Hamtramck, Canton, Detroit, Oakland County, Macomb County, Nevada, Clark County, Las Vegas, Clark, Vegas, Reno, Washoe County, Washoe, . North Carolina, North Carolina, Robeson, Scotland, Swain County, Asheville, Buncombe County, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Biden’s, Puerto, Allentown, Reading, Hazleton, Lackawanna County, Scranton, Bucks, Pike County, New Jersey, New York, Chester, Montgomery, Harrisburg, Wisconsin, Harris, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Appleton, Madison

☆ Opinion | The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Patrick Ruffini | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

Opinion Guest Essay The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesIn almost every presidential battleground state, polling suggests something close to a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. For Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, each could be a crucial building block in a winning swing-state coalition. In 2016, with Mr. Trump in the race, these areas began to march to national trends: Rural areas trended Republican, while Milwaukee’s well-off, close-in suburbs zoomed left. Still, loyalties remain potent in Wisconsin, from Democratic-leaning, ancestrally Scandinavian voters in the state’s rural west to middle-class suburban Republicans outside Milwaukee. Mr. Trump lost Nash County by just 0.2 points in 2020 and Wilson County by three points.

Persons: Sebastian Siadecki, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump ., Harris, Trump, Nate Silver’s, Joe Biden, Badger State . Arizona Battlegrounds, Mark Kelly, Biden, Trump’s, Patrick Ruffini Organizations: The New York Times, Pennsylvania, Keystone, Philadelphia, Democratic, Milwaukee —, Washington, Mr, Republican, Republicans, Milwaukee, Badger State, Senate, Northampton, “ Party of, Populist Coalition Locations: America, Pennsylvania, Appalachia, Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s, . Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee, Badger, Badger State . Arizona, Arizona, Phoenix, Florida and Texas, . North Carolina, North Carolina, Southern, Nash, Rocky, Wilson, Wilson County, Nash County, Northampton, Erie, Bethlehem, Georgia, Brown County, Green Bay, Outagamie County, Appleton, Winnebago County, Oshkosh, Maricopa County

☆ Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +21 min

Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, “, Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, ”, You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, “, Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, …, Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania, “

☆ Fact Check-Images do not show ballots dumped during 2022 midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Twitter account shared two-years-old images of envelopes scattered by roadways with false claims that thousands of U.S. midterm election ballots were dumped across the country and in Mexico. Reverse image search reveals that the two photographs used in the tweet pre-date the midterm elections. Postal Service (USPS) mail carrier from Hudson County who was arrested on Oct 7, 2020, for discarding post, including 99 general election ballots intended to be delivered to West Orange residents (here). Meanwhile, Pam Smith, president of the non-governmental organization Verified Voting, told Reuters that the organization has seen “no evidence” to support the claim that thousands of ballots have been dumped during the midterm elections. The images that show mail strewn along the side of roadways were captured years before the 2022 midterm elections.

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