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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB interest rate hike isn't enough to cool inflation in a timely manner, professor saysAthanasios Orphanides, professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and former governor at the Central Bank of Cyprus, discusses the European Central Bank's 25-basis-point interest rate hike.
Persons: Athanasios Orphanides Organizations: MIT Sloan School of Management, Central Bank of Cyprus, Central
The Fed had a similar predicament in 2006After raising interest rates 17 consecutive times between June 2004 and June 2006, Fed officials became concerned that they could inadvertently damage the economy if they continued to hike rates. When the Fed met again in September, many officials expressed concerns that raising interest rates after a short, six-week pause would broadcast the wrong message. Lacker continued to be the sole Fed official who favored raising interest rates until his term expired at the end of the year. “It’s pretty easy to believe that the Fed will find that it didn’t raise rates enough and so choose to raise rates somewhat further before stopping and, later on, reducing rates,” he said. Fed officials then opted for a pause in the fall of 1994 and raised rates further in the winter.
Persons: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, , ” Michael Moskow, , Cathy Minehan, Jeffrey Lacker, Lacker, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, Athanasios Orphanides, Austan Goolsbee, William English Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, Fed, Committee, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Chicago Fed, Boston Fed, Richmond Fed, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, European Central Bank, Food Forum, Yale University Locations: New York, Washington ,, Xinhua, Chicago
But by incentivising central banks to commit to keep rates low for long, forward guidance becomes a constraint when they need to swiftly tighten policy to rein in inflation, he said. "Recent experience suggests forward guidance can become a trap," Orphanides said. "Compared to forward guidance, clearer communication of a central bank's reaction function would avoid the trap and improve policy outcomes," he added. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who was present at the conference, said the very nature of forward guidance meant central banks took the risk of falling behind the curve whenever they were using the tool. Central banks around the world followed in the footsteps of the BOJ in introducing unconventional monetary easing steps, including forward guidance, to combat the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.
Persons: Athanasios Orphanides, Orphanides, it's, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Bank of Japan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Central, United States, Europe
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