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Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has been hobbled by slackening global growth, led by its main trading partner China and falling investor confidence due to a protracted period without a government following elections in May. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in the June quarter, also sharply under a forecast rise of 1.2%. The global demand weakness prompted the government to cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast to between 2.5% and 3.0% from a range of 2.7% to 3.7%. As weak global demand crimps exports, Thailand's economy has been supported by its vital tourism sector and private consumption growth. It projected exports to drop 1.8% in 2023 versus an earlier forecast for a 1.6% fall.

Persons: Danucha Pichayanan, Pheu, Srettha Thavisin, Danucha, Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong, Martin Petty Organizations: China, National Economic, Social Development Council, Thomson Locations: BANGKOK, Thailand

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded faster than expected in the first quarter of this year due to a revival in its vital tourism sector. Arkhom said revenue collection also showed strong signs of recovery in the 2022 fiscal year and was expected to surpass the pre-pandemic level in the 2023 fiscal year. "I'm confident that Thailand is firmly heading towards full recovery and soon return to its vibrant economy," he added. Thailand's public debt rose due to the pandemic response, but overall fiscal risks remain manageable, the bank said. Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon; Editing by Martin Petty and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The NESDC kept its 2023 GDP growth forecast unchanged at between 2.7% and 3.7%. It also kept its forecast for 2023 foreign tourist arrivals at 28 million. Thailand beat its tourism target in 2022 with 11.15 million foreign visitors. Pre-pandemic 2019 saw a record of nearly 40 million foreign tourists, who spent 1.91 trillion baht ($56 billion). The NESDC also kept its 2023 forecasts for goods exports to drop 1.6% and headline inflation to be between 2.5% and 3.5%.

Thailand's economy is expected to continue growing while headline inflation should decline and return to a target range of 1% to 3% late in the year, the central bank said. Any further rate hikes would be gradual and measured, it said, but added it stood ready to adjust them as needed. "The committee deems that a continuing gradual policy normalisation is an appropriate course for monetary policy consistent with the growth and inflation outlook," the BOT said in a statement. It added it expected "increased risks from demand-side inflationary pressures due to the economic recovery". China's reopening is expected to further boost Thailand's tourism, with the government predicting at least five million Chinese visitors this year, about half of the 2019 figure.

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