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☆ Friday’s jobs report will likely determine the size of the Fed’s rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN —The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. Economists are expecting that the August report should reaffirm that the labor market is merely cooling versus outright weakening. Inflation had cooled, and the labor market was rolling right along and doing its part to keep consumers spending and the economy churning. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. “It would be a mistake to define the labor market as being excessively weak at this stage.”Instead, the signals indicate that the labor market has moved from being extremely strong and into better balance, she said.

Persons: ” Tuan Nguyen, —, ” Karin Kimbrough, “, ” Oliver Allen, ” Allen, ”, Andrew Challenger, Nick Bunker, Pantheon’s Allen, Beryl “, Mike Skordeles Organizations: CNN, RSM, Federal, LinkedIn, Labor, Department of Labor, “ Companies, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BLS, Employers, ADP, Challenger, Technology, “, North America, Bank of America Locations: US, Michigan, Texas

☆ America has the fewest jobs available since January 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —The number of available jobs in the US shrank more than expected in July, an indication that demand for workers continues to wane amid a cooling labor market. Wednesday’s data is the first in a series of critically important economic metrics released this week about the US labor market, culminating with the Friday jobs report. As the labor market has slowed, it’s come back into balance: There are now nearly 1.1 jobs available for every person looking for one. The monthly jobs report for July showed gains of just 114,000 — far below expectations — and the unemployment rate shot to 4.3% from 4.1%. Separately, annual labor market data revisions showed job gains for the year ending March 2024 were less robust than initially thought.

Persons: “, ” Oliver Allen, ”, it’s, hasn’t, ” Allen, Robert Frick, ” Frick, ” ‘ Haggard, haggard, Noah Yosif, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, ” Pollak, Wednesday’s, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Federal, Navy Federal Credit Union, American Staffing Association, ZipRecruiter

☆ The Fed's long-awaited rate cuts will open up the job market — but it could take a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.

Persons: —, Oliver Allen, Allen, …, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business

☆ US pending home sales jumped in March, beating expectations by a mile
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —Home sales based on contract signings jumped in March despite elevated mortgage rates that month. Contract signings rose across the country in March from the prior month, except in the Midwest. Hotter-than-expected inflation readings in recent months are now keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates anytime soon. Those are the so-called “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage rates. They began to climb in early 2022 when the Federal Reserve started to hike interest rates in a bid to tamp down high inflation.

Persons: ”, Lawrence Yun, ” Oliver Allen, it’s, Yun Organizations: Washington CNN —, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Pantheon

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

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