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☆ Ukraine can keep on fighting Russia — but the 'victory' it wants might be out of reach
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ukrainian servicemen practice combat drills involving a BMP-1 in Donbas, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 19, 2024. But, with future aid uncertain, analysts question what "victory" Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia — a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is able to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men to war. While additional aid allows Ukraine to keep on fighting Russian forces in the short stretch, a "victory" in the near-term is an unlikely prospect. What's more, what "victory" looks like for Ukraine, or its allies, could be a source of friction. This is particularly the case in eastern Ukraine, where it has enjoyed support from pro-Russian separatists for over a decade.

Persons: Teneo, Vladimir Putin, Natalia Kolesnikova, Tursa, Frankness, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Putin Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Russia —, Afp, Centre for Military, Legal, U.S, CNBC Locations: Donbas, Ukraine, Russia, Kyiv, U.S, Central, Eastern Europe, Ukrainian, Crimea, Red, Moscow, Russian, Sevastopol

☆ Ukraine's push into Russian-occupied territory was bold — but a breakthrough is far from guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ukrainian servicemen board a boat on the shore of the Dnipro river at the front line near Kherson, Ukraine, on Oct. 15, 2023. Following the confirmation that Ukrainian forces had crossed the Dnieper river into Russian-occupied territory in recent weeks, hopes have risen that this could be a small but key breakthrough in the six-month counteroffensive against Russia. The Dnieper has effectively operated as a front line in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, separating Ukrainian troops on the west bank from Russian forces on the east, or left, bank. Russian forces had retreated to the east bank last year following an earlier counteroffensive by Ukraine that left the Kherson region — strategically important given its location above Russian-annexed Crimea — partially occupied. "The left-bank [of the Dnieper river] in Kherson is very important because it's near to Crimea," Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Ukrainian military expert and head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, told CNBC.

Persons: Oleksandr Musiyenko, Musiyenko Organizations: Crimea —, Centre for Military, Legal Studies, CNBC Locations: Dnipro, Kherson, Ukraine, Russian, Russia, Ukrainian, Crimea, Kyiv

☆ Alongside modern Western arms, Ukraine uses custom-built 'mini-Grads'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Vladyslav Smilianets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, Ukraine, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Ukraine has an arsenal of high-tech Western arms to fight Russian forces, but is also deploying custom-built mini-rocket launchers that use parts taken from a Soviet-era system. [1/3]Ukrainian servicemen of the 108th Separate Brigade of Territorial Defence fire small multiple launch rocket systems toward Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near a front line in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine August 19, 2023. It is rather ineffective to fire 10, eight or two rockets at one target," he said. He said the development of such weaponry was designed to "give an advantage to units which typically do not have this type of weapon." Reporting by Vladyslav Smilianets, Writing by Timothy Heritage; Editing by Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gall, Viacheslav, Luka, Yurii Osokolanskyi, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Vladyslav Smilianets, Timothy Heritage, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Reuters, Territorial Defence Brigade, 108th, Brigade, Territorial Defence, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Soviet, Ukrainian, Zaporizhzhia, United States, Zaporizhzhia region

☆ Ukraine's counteroffensive has been underwhelming so far — but it's low key for a reason
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty ImagesWhen Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week there was no fanfare or official announcement, but that wasn't entirely unexpected. "We are trying to find the weakest places in the Russian defense line. Nonetheless, Ukraine's deputy defense minister conceded Wednesday that the fighting was "extremely fierce" and that the counteroffensive had only had "partial success" so far. CNBC contacted Ukraine's defense ministry for further comment and is awaiting a response. "We will see the main punches of Ukrainian forces in the nearest future.

Persons: Anatolii Stepanov, Nick Reynolds, Andrius, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Musiyenko, Matthew Miller, RUSI's Reynolds, they've, it's Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kyiv, CNBC, Defense, Centre for Military, Legal Studies, Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian, Anadolu Agency, NATO, . State Locations: Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Russian, Kharkiv, Kherson, London, Russia, Central, Eastern Europe, Kyiv, Velyka, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Crimea, Donbas, Moscow

☆ Traitor next door? Fear stalks Kherson after Russian occupation ends
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Elizabeth Piper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nonetheless, her garden walls in the Ukrainian city of Kherson are covered with graffiti marking her out as a Russian collaborator. Fear and suspicion stalk the streets of Kherson, a southern port that was occupied by Russian troops for over eight months before they were driven out by Ukrainian forces in November. More than 5,300 collaboration cases have been registered across the country, according to the prosecutor general's website. Cases of collaboration can point to the tough choices people have to make when trying to survive under occupation. He left the business to his workers, who had to register with the Russians and take Russian passports, and fears they could be prosecuted once the occupation ends.

REUTERS/Sofiia GatilovaKYIV, May 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine's military said it had made new advances on Wednesday in heavy fighting near the eastern city of Bakhmut, and that Russia was continuing to send in new units including paratroopers. Moscow sees Bakhmut, a city of about 70,000 before Russia's invasion, as a stepping stone towards capturing the rest of the eastern industrial Donbas region bordering Russia. Ukrainian officials have signalled the advances around Bakhmut are not part of a broader counteroffensive planned by Kyiv to push back the Russian forces. Prigozhin, in an audio statement, appeared to confirm Ukrainian forces now held an advantage in Bakhmut and he newly criticized Russian commanders. "Russian troops have lost the initiative on the flanks - our troops have cut off those flanks," Musiyenko told NV Radio.

☆ China just called Ukraine for the first time in the war. The timing wasn't accidental, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese President Xi Jinping at a signing ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace, on March 21, 2023, in Moscow, Russia. China has been eager to position itself as a peace broker to end the Ukraine war, but has appeared to be allied with Moscow throughout. State media added that Beijing would make efforts for a cease-fire to be reached as soon as possible, in order to end what China called a "crisis" rather than a conflict. He was, however, surprised at the timing of China's call, as he expected it might wait and see how the counteroffensive proceeded before intervening. "I was confident that China would wait for the results of Ukrainian counteroffensive and would then probably propose something [on a cease-fire and peace talks]," he told CNBC Thursday.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Ukraine —, Max Hess, Oleksandr Musiyenko Organizations: Ukrainian, Russian, Eurasia, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNBC, Centre for Military, Legal Studies Locations: Moscow, Russia, China, Ukraine, —, Beijing, Kyiv

☆ Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

And in the case of Polohy, Russia has constructed two distinct defensive lines, one to the north and one to the south. Musiyenko estimated that Ukraine would have a force of between 100,000-110,000 for an attack, including eight assault brigades with a total of 40,000 troops. Russia has not said how many troops it has in Ukraine, or within its borders ready to deploy. A leaked U.S. intelligence document dated Feb. 28 seen by Reuters said the West had committed 200 tanks to Ukraine. Army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said in December he needed 300 to defeat Russia, along with other vehicles and artillery.

☆ Ukraine wants to win China over as Russia's invasion continues. Some say it shouldn't bother trying
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Ukrainian servicemen head toward Bakhmut in a BMP infantry fighting vehicle, in eastern Ukraine on March 22, 2023. The Kremlin said Wednesday that Ukraine's "peace formula" had not been discussed by Xi and Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping leave after a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. "I'm not confident that China's plans, and 12-point peace plan, is good for Ukraine — I think that this is a very bad deal for Ukraine, and that this is a plan for Russia. The proposed peace plan and latest talks between Xi and Putin offer little tangible substance on how a lasting peace could actually be achieved in Ukraine.

☆ North of Bakhmut, another key battle tests Ukraine's defences
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Mike Collett-White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

At the bottom of the attempted encirclement appears to be Soledar, meaning an area far larger than Bakhmut would be vulnerable. "The enemy would need a lot of forces to take this line (Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka) and therefore I think it is unlikely, given the losses the Russian troops are already suffering," he added. Russia has made only incremental gains around Bakhmut, which it has been trying to capture for eight months, and further north. He said he took part in both wars in the 1990s between Russian troops and separatists after the breakup of the Soviet Union. For now, artillery appears to hold the key to defending positions and pinning down the enemy for both sides.

☆ After a year of death and destruction, Ukraine braces itself for a major escalation in the war
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Emergency service workers extinguish a fire after shelling on the Bakhmut frontline in Ivanivske, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on January 02, 2023. Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesWhen Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, it shocked the world. Russia and Ukraine have only published data sporadically on their own casualty rates in the war — so we have to rely on estimates. One former NATO official told CNBC that, sooner or later, Ukraine would need to be given combat aircraft. Kenzo Tribouillard | Afp | Getty ImagesAsked whether he believed Ukraine could prevail and win the war before the end of 2023, Shea said two things need to happen: Western weapons need to arrive quickly and Ukraine must be given aircraft.

"This could slow down [a Russian assault] significantly," said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defence minister. This was a major boost for the Ukrainian military, allowing it to destroy Russian ammunition dumps and weapons storage facilities. "We are currently unable to reach Russian military facilities more than 80 kilometres away," said Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko. Beyond the logistical impact, the addition of a longer-range weapon to Ukraine's arsenal could help shake Russian confidence. Still, said Karako, it is possible the Ukrainians could end up receiving an even longer range weapon in the future.

☆ Factbox: Why Russia is targeting the Ukrainian town of Soledar
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Moscow's capture of Soledar and its salt mines would have symbolic, military and commercial value for Russia. If Russia is able to capture Soledar, it would likely be able to use that position to intensify its assault on Bakhmut. SALT MINESSoledar is also home to cavernous salt mines that are owned by state-owned enterprise Artemsil, which dominated the Ukrainian market until it halted production a few months after Russia invaded. The salt mines could serve as a commercially lucrative asset and also be used to store ammunition and weapons out of range of Ukrainian missiles. A U.S. official said last week that Prigozhin was interested in taking control of salt and gypsum from mines near Bakhmut.

☆ Drone strikes deep in Russia seen as Ukrainian rebuff to missile barrages
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Military analysts saw the attacks as Kyiv's response to Russia on the same day that Moscow conducted another wave of missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. wrote Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. Musiyenko added: "It's a moment for Russia to wonder about continuing to conduct missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. It was not the first time Russia accused Ukraine of using such drones for attacks inside its borders. In an opinion piece on Nov. 29, Ukroboronprom's general director Yuriy Gusev called for an "asymmetrical response" by the Ukrainian army to Russian missile volleys.

☆ Drone strikes in Russia seen as Ukrainian rebuff to missile barrages
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Ukrainian officials revelled in the blasts but declined to acknowledge Kyiv's role, after Russia said Ukraine used unmanned Soviet-era aerial vehicles to attack two air force bases in the Ryazan and Saratov areas of south-central Russia. On Tuesday, a third Russian airfield in Kursk, which lies closer to Ukraine, was set ablaze in another drone strike. Military analysts saw the attacks as Kyiv's response to Russia on the same day that Moscow conducted another wave of missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. wrote Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. It was not the first time Russia accused Ukraine of using such drones for attacks inside its borders.

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