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Here's how Bank of America suggests trading a variety of Election Day outcomes. Split Republican control A Trump White House with a largely Democratic Congress is overall neutral for equities, Kwon said. Split Democratic control The status quo would be maintained with a Harris White House and a Republican Congress, Kwon said. Over the past seven election cycles, the two-week price direction for stocks was identical to one day after election day every single time. Outside of the election, Kwon said that the Fed could have ample reason to cut further.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Bank of America, Trump, Republican, Trump White House, Democratic, Harris White, Federal
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Data on employment, inflation and economic growth have signaled that the "economy may not be slowing as much as desired," Waller said. A soft landing is the scenario in which inflation drops to the Fed's 2% target while economic growth and employment remain healthy. A "no landing," on the other hand, is when the economy continues expanding as inflation remains high.
Persons: Jefferies, Kelly Ortberg, Christopher Waller, Waller, Fed Governor Waller, Henry Allen, Ohsung Kwon, BofA, Kwon, , Jeff Cox, Sarah Min, Lisa Kailai Han, Yun Li Organizations: Shoppers, Miami Design District, CNBC, Grand View Research, Boeing, P Global, U.S . Federal, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America Securities Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S
Earnings will be the main event this week, as Wall Street looks to add to recent record-setting gains. Nearly 40 S & P 500 companies are scheduled to post third-quarter results this week. Check out our latest Earnings Playbook for more on the names reporting this week. The 30 S & P 500 names that reported last week beat earnings expectations by an average of 5%, according to Bank of America. The S & P 500 closed above 5,800 for the first time on Friday.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley —, Ohsung Kwon, Banks, JP Morgan, corporates, Kwon, Fastenal, Lori Calvasina, It's, Dow Organizations: Netflix, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, Big, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEasing cycle should be more favorable for banks going forward, says BofA's Ohsung KwonSteve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers chief strategist, and Ohsung Kwon, BofA Securities, talks the day's market action and upcoming bank earnings.
Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Steve Sosnick, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: Interactive Brokers, BofA Securities
The third quarter earnings season will take its first big steps this week, but Wall Street has already been dialing back expectations for months. That shift could be a sign that Wall Street is losing confidence in corporate America. 7 and Other 493 earnings are expected to slow in 3Q, but Other 493 earnings are expected to re-accelerate to low-to-mid teens growth starting in 4Q, while Mag. PepsiCo reported mixed results for the third quarter on Tuesday, as the food and beverage company beat on earnings but saw softer sales numbers. Delta Airlines and JPMorgan Chase are some of the heavy hitters on deck for later in the week.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Bank of America, 4Q, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, JPMorgan Chase Locations: America
The S & P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday , bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 18%. The S & P 500 averaged a 5.5% gain in the first three months after an initial cut, 10.6% six months later and 11.3% one year out. On average, the broader index jumped 10.2% three months later, 14.7% six months out and 18.6% one year afterward. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, ytd Other investment banks have noted this discrepancy, with Bank of America Securities also highlighting the pattern in a recent note. The worst-performing sectors 12 months after a rate cut were materials, utilities and consumer discretionary.
Persons: Canaccord, Ohsung Kwon, Canaccord Genuity, — CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities
As expected, the Fed has been coy about cuts, leaving markets torn between pricing in a 25- or 50-basis-point reduction. "In cycles where rate cuts were able to prolong economic expansion and keep corporate earnings on an upward trend, stocks performed quite well," Belski wrote in a mid-September note. AdvertisementWhile rate cuts aren't a cure-all, Belski is confident that the economic expansion will continue, which will keep this bull market on firm footing. "But with significantly strong trailing one-year performance headed into this initial rate cut, future gains are likely to be more muted relative to historical norms." Sectors poised to outperform as the Fed finally cuts ratesAfter outlining how US stocks broadly have fared following cuts in the last four decades, BMO shared relative sector performance before and after periods of rate declines.
Persons: , that's, Ohsung Kwon, Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, " Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, BMO Locations: bankable, Montreal
The bank said the Federal Reserve can shift its focus to economic growth after the cool June CPI report. "Slowing GDP + accelerating EPS has been the best backdrop for stocks," Bank of America said. AdvertisementThe cooler-than-expected June CPI report is fueling a "Goldilocks" economy that should benefit one specific corner of the stock market: cyclicals. We think the economy is moderating not rolling over, but we expect our view to evolve with the data," Kwon said. "Slowing GDP + accelerating EPS has been the best backdrop for stocks," Kwon said.
Persons: , Ohsung Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Service, Fed, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
Bad economic news so far has been mostly positive for the stock market, as investors worry over whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. The greenback often rises on bad news as investors seek the safety of cash and equivalents, while the stock market gains on good news. .SPX .DXY line 2024-04-01 Stocks vs. the dollar At the same time, economic data has generally deteriorated, or at least not met Wall Street forecasts. For the most part, bad economic news likely could help convince the Fed that the time is right to start lowering interest rates. Based on the prior two months, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 4.3% in May for that to happen.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Dow Jones, Claudia Sahm, BofA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors
The stock market faces a big test this week with the release of the May jobs report on Friday. Fewer than 125,000 jobs added would suggest that bad news for the economy may finally be bad news for stocks. According to a Monday note from Bank of America, the report needs to print within the "Goldilocks range" of 125,000-175,000 new jobs added in the month. To the downside, Bank of America said a May jobs report below 125,000 would be bad news for the stock market and could lead to a sell-off. Bank of America expects the May jobs report to come in at 200,000 jobs added during the month.
Persons: BofA, , Ohsung Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Federal Reserve
The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
The consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung Kwon
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung KwonOhsung Kwon, BofA Securities Equity & Quant strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what to expect from the FOMC tomorrow, the case for dividend stocks and how the sector benefit from high rate environments.
Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Ohsung Kwon Organizations: BofA Securities Equity
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're at the start of a huge AI investment cycle, says BofA's Ohsung KwonThierry Wizman, Macquarie global interest rates & currencies strategist and Ohsung Kwon, Bank of America senior U.S. equity strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Thierry Wizman, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Macquarie
Investors should prefer the Canadian TSX Composite benchmark index in 2024 to the S & P 500 , according to Bank of America. Last year, while inflation was moderating, the TSX underperformed the S & P 500 by 16 percentage points. However, the Canadian index beat the S & P 500 in 2022 when inflation was investors' prime concern. According to FactSet, the P/E currently stands at 15.75x, lower than the 20.28x of the S & P 500. Canadian investors can access the index through the near-identical iShares Core S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF and BMO S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF .
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, FactSet, Kwon, SPX Organizations: Canadian, Bank of America, TSX, of America's, BMO, U.S Locations: of America's Canada, 15.75x, United States, Canada, Yom Kippur, Vietnam
Andrew Kelly | ReutersAfter years of unbridled consumer spending on everything from home improvement to dream vacations, some companies are now finding the limits of their pricing power. Nike last week lowered its annual sales growth forecast and unveiled plans to cut costs by $2 billion over the next three years. "Goods companies don't have the pricing power they did in the pandemic, and some in the hotel and travel [industries] — they don't have the pricing power they did in the immediate post-Covid," he added. Sales growth for companies in the S&P 500 is on track to average 2.7% this year, according to mid-December analyst estimates posted by FactSet. Consumer spending on apparel and groceries rose 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, from the year-earlier period, according to the survey.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mills, Joe Cavaretta, David Kelly, FactSet, Kelly, isn't, airfare, John F, Bob Jordan, Jordan, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: FedEx, Reuters, Shipping, Airlines, Target, Nike, Spirit Airlines, Hasbro, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Getty, Florida Sun, Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Mastercard, Starbucks, Airline, U.S . Department of Labor, Kennedy International, Southwest, CNBC, Detroit automakers, Toyota, Cox Automotive, Bank of America Locations: New York, speedier, Fort, South
Boomers have cash and appear to be weathering rising interest rates better than other generations, according to Bank of America. Because of this, the bank sees stocks particularly exposed to the well-off group that investors of all ages should buy. In contrast, Bank of America found millennials are the only generation with a meaningful amount of mortgage debt incurred after 2021, according to Bank of America. Bank data shows boomers have yet to feel the pinch from higher rates — and the wealthy subsection of the generation is actually benefitting from them. Given apparel is more prominent among millennials, Kwon pointed to Revolve as a short play.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, septuagenarians, Kwon, Welltower, Kwon's boomer, LSEG, — CNBC's Michael Organizations: Boomers, Bank of America, Bank of America . Bank, American, Service Corporation
Earnings will rise in Q3 and bring stocks along for the ride, according to Bank of America. Earnings estimates haven't budged in the last three months, which is better than the typical 4% pre-quarter drop. 10 stocks set for success as Q3 earnings reboundProfits have exceeded GDP by an average of 1.5 percentage points since 1950, according to BofA. Bank of AmericaHowever, Bank of America is confident that a new quarter will bring a clean slate for earnings. Below are 10 stocks that Bank of America believes are most likely to beat expectations in Q3.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Savita Subramanian, there's, Kwon, Subramanian, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, Wall, Bank of America Companies, Bank, Companies
And when analysts adjust future earnings estimates higher, share prices often move higher as well. And as Sam Burns knows, capitalizing on shifting analyst expectations can be a profitable investing strategy. In an interview with Insider, Burns explained that he's created a system that tracks analysts' estimates heading into earnings season. Stocks in the top 10% of ESS rankings are roughly three times more likely to see higher analyst estimates in the next month than stocks in the bottom 10%. And with those higher estimates often comes higher price movements.
Persons: Sam Burns, Burns, Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, he's, it's, Organizations: Mill, Research, Wall, Bank of America, Big Tech, Fed, Momentum
New York CNN —Earnings reports are coming thick and fast, showing how companies fared in the first few months of the year. But even as earnings are forecast to slump to their lowest level in three years, investors fear the worst is yet to come. This left significant gaps in the forensic search for Nazi-linked records, the Senate Committee stated. AlixPartners, according to the Senate committee, has indicated it will conduct a “supplementary review” of Credit Suisse’s connections to ratlines amongst other allegations. Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second-largest bank by assets and has spent the past few years plagued by scandals and large losses.
Forget inflation, it’s all about earnings
  + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
They noted that over the last three quarters, S&P 500 reactions to earnings beats and misses have soared higher and have now surpassed the one-day market reaction to both CPI inflation and Fed policy meeting decisions. Shares of Disney sank 13.16% last November — their lowest level in more than two years — when they missed earnings estimates. “We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” wrote Subramanian and Kwon. So we can expect some serious volatility over the next few weeks as companies report their fourth quarter corporate earnings. Bad news ahead: The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2022 is -3.9%, according to a FactSet analysis.
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