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☆ Fed pivot hopes whipsaw Treasury market as investors hunt for rate peak
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | Thomson Reuters | Davide Barbuscia Covers Macro Investment | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson
☆ Analysis: US Treasury yield curve shifts could be set-up for Jackson Hole unwind
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Davide Barbuscia Carolina Mandl | Davide Barbuscia | Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina
☆ Stocks week ahead: How the midterms could affect Wall Street
  + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits. If Republicans get the House, tax hikes are dead in the water,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager with Aptus Capital Advisors. That’s because there are some areas of consensus for the White House and Republican lawmakers. Congress and the White House may spend more time bickering than trying to pass legislation. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene said on a conference call last week about the midterms that stocks have historically gone up after elections, no matter which party controls the White House and Congress.
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