Payroll gains so far in 2024 have totaled 1.24 million, down about 50,000 a month below the same period a year ago.
"Specifically, I'm thinking more about the unemployment rate, which has been slowly trending up."
Under normal circumstances, a 4% unemployment rate would be cause for celebration, not concern.
The May rate was 0.5 percentage point above its 12-month low of 3.5% in July 2023, potentially triggering a recession indicator called the Sahm Rule.
The rule has shown consistently that whenever the unemployment rate on a three-month average eclipses its 12-month low by half a percentage point, the economy is in recession.
Persons:
nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Nick Bunker, it's