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☆ When will this Trump-fueled bull market approach bubble territory? Watch this indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The CBOE Volatility Index , known on Wall Street as the VIX, helps traders track when a market rally is actually unhealthy, said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. Monday's close for the VIX around 15 "is a healthy sign" for the temperature of the market as it advances, Colas wrote to clients. To put it succinctly: "Rallies built on an elevated VIX signal a bubble," he wrote. That's a lesson market participants learned, during the dot-com bubble of the mid- to late-1990s, he said. In the current bull market, dating back to the fourth quarter of 2022, however, the VIX has been largely "well behaved," Colas argued.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Donald Trump, —, Monday's, Colas, That's, Jessica Rabe, Trump Organizations: Research, U.S

☆ 3 reasons why Warren Buffett is shunning stocks — including his own
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett isn't hot on stocks right now, and the 94-year-old CEO's latest moves reflect that. The cash hoard has grown as Berkshire pared down stakes in key holdings such as Apple and Bank of America . It's also raked in more than $10 billion from steadily selling Bank of America shares since the summer. Berkshire Class A stock trades at 22.6 time earnings. Lastly, Colas noted that Buffett may have "have identified one or more large acquisitions and is raising capital for those purchases."

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, It's, Buffett, didn't, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Greg Abel, hasn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Berkshire, Nike, Disney, Apple, Bank of America, of America, DataTrek, Oracle, Berkshire Class Locations: Berkshire, Omaha

☆ History shows Nasdaq bull market could return more than 10% next year, barring a shock
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Nasdaq Composite index finally made a new all-time high on Friday, its first since July. But history shows there may be more than 10% upside ahead as stocks enter the third year of a bull market, according to DataTrek statistics. DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe said they "remain bullish" on U.S. large-cap tech stocks because the average third year of a bull market has brought an increase of just 4.4% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the firm's data shows. The data, too, shows that another positive year for Nasdaq is no sure-fire bet. A two-year bull market after a losing year, the pattern we are currently in since the 2022 debacle, has continued into a third year just 60% of the time since 1971.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, What's Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: U.S, East, Europe

☆ Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek

☆ Nvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas ColasDataTrek's Nicholas Colas joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss macro outlooks ahead of rate cuts, what will drive the next rally, how to position, and more.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nvidia

☆ The yen carry trade unwind: A big complication for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.

Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Don't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas ColasNicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the market sell-off and volatility.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Nicholas Colas Organizations: Research

☆ Why the Fed is being blamed for the historic stock-market plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.

Persons: —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington

☆ Nvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick ColasSean Myers, assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School, and Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss Nvidia's valuation, how much weight to give P/E ratios, and more.

Persons: Nick Colas Sean Myers, Nicholas Colas, CNBC's Organizations: Nvidia, Wharton School, DataTrek Research

☆ Meme stocks extend short-squeeze rally to massive 100%+ gains with GameStop and AMC leading the way
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GameStop and AMC Entertainment extended their gains on Tuesday to more than 100%. AMC Entertainment took advantage of the massive rally by selling shares to raise capital. AdvertisementWhat began with a Sunday evening tweet from Keith Gill, AKA Roaring Kitty, has materialized into a massive short-squeeze rally that has taken shares of GameStop and AMC Entertainment up 74% and 78% on Monday alone. Before the opening bell, shares of GameStop and AMC soared as much as 158% and 132%, respectively. The rallies have pushed a massive short-squeeze in the stocks, not unlike the 2021 rally that caught Wall Street short sellers off guard and sank a prominent hedge fund.

Persons: Keith Gill, —, Wall, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: GameStop, AMC Entertainment, Service, AMC

☆ Today's 'pain trade' is a rapidly rising market catching many investors off-guard
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.

Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials

☆ 'Sell in May and go away' is a catchy adage, but probably not a good idea
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."

Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek

☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ S&P on pace to score fourth month of consecutive gains. History tells us what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is ending February with a gain of almost 5%. S & P 500: Four big months November: up 8.9% December: up 4.4% January: up 1.6% February: up 4.6% The November gain of 8.9% was one of the 20 best monthly performances in history. The S & P has advanced about 5% since passing the old January 2022 historic high, which it crossed on Jan. 19, this year. Put another way: the S & P has recovered all the bear market losses from the old high in January 2022 to the bear market bottom in October 2022, and added another 5%. "Yet it also offers encouragement that no post-recovery selloff saw the start of a new bear market before rebounding and proceeding onto additional new highs."

Persons: Steve Starker, Todd Sohn, Eli Lilly, Nicholas Colas, Sam Stovall Organizations: Nvidia, P, Technology, Services, Care, Broadcom, Communication Services, Meta, Health Care, Merck, Depot, Costco, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Berkshire Hathaway, Research Locations: BTIG

☆ China's chances of staging an economic rebound this year look slim
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China faces severe real estate woes, deflation, and an exodus of global investors. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe world has yet to witness any post-pandemic rebound in China, and Wall Street expects little to change in 2024. The ongoing exodus of global investors is evidence the bear case is intact, and the country's real estate sector continues to look more and more precarious. AdvertisementThat in turn has cratered sentiment, as Chinese households have the majority of their wealth tied to real estate.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Mike Edwards, Weiss, haven't, Edwards, Tracy Chen, Chen, Caesar Maasry, Goldman Sachs, Maasry Organizations: Service, Wall, Tech, Baidu, US, Business, Brandywine, Supply, Seng China Enterprises, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing

☆ After a banner 2023, the market faces a tough challenge for a repeat performance
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since 1928, the S & P 500 has finished up 20% or more about 36% of the time. Yes, 2022 was down about 19%, but the S & P has posted declines of 10% or more only 12% of the time since 1928. Could the S & P gain 20% again in 2024? That run from 1995 to 1999 was certainly epic, but that was the last time the S & P 500 saw back-to-back 20% gains. Regardless, with the S & P 500 closing the year at 4,769, a 20% gain next year would mean the S & P would hit 5,722.

Persons: Ben Carlson, Jessica Rabe, Nicholas Colas, Tom Lee, John Stoltzfus Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Management, DataTrek Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Oppenheimer Asset Management

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

☆ Hedge funds have lost $43 billion trying to short the market as the S&P 500 eyes its best month in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund short sellers have lost $43 billion in recent days as stocks rally, the Financial Times reported. The S&P 500 is on track for its best month since July 2022. With a more than 7% gain in November, the S&P 500 is on pace for its best month since July 2022. AdvertisementThe FT notes that analysts say some hedge funds have had to repurchase stocks to cover their short bets as a "short squeeze" pushed share prices even higher. According to S3 data, bets against technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary were the most painful for hedge funds.

Persons: —, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Wednesday Financial, S3 Partners, Federal Reserve, Carnival Corp

☆ A key historical indicator says the latest stock market rally is poised to push on through the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500's sector correlations suggest the current rally can go to year-end, DataTrek Research said. The indicator is a sign of investor confidence, and it's hovering near levels seen around bull markets of the past. AdvertisementThe stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. "When [investors] see clear skies ahead, correlations tend to be low as they pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks," Colas and Rabe said. When correlations hover above that level, stocks tend to be under pressure; when they are below, stocks tend to rally like they did in 2020-2021, and between January and July of this year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Research, Service

☆ ETFs that track meme stocks have been surging, as 'animal spirits' return to markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Recession fears appear to be cooling among US companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mentions of inflation were down to 55% of companies in the third quarter, down from a peak of 83% in 2022. Taken together, the "recession" and "inflation" mentions points to moderating, but still persistent unease among companies. "Stocks have shrugged off recession fears, but they remain elevated at many companies. But they also note that the still-elevated mentions of inflation and recession don't necessarily bode poorly for stock performance. Big Wall Street firms are mixed in their outlook for the economy next year.

Persons: —, disinflation, DataTrek, DataTrek cofounders Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe, bode, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Research, Wall Street, Wall, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: America

☆ Why market timing doesn't work: S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just 8 days explain the gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just eight days that explain most of the gains. If you want a simple indication of why market timing is not an effective investment strategy, take a look at the data on the S&P 500 year to date. How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the number of up days is about the same as the down days? Here's a hypothetical example of an investment in the S&P 500 over 50 years. The key to investing is not market timing: it is consistent investing, and understanding your own risk tolerance.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, there's, JP Morgan, Colas Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Facebook, Netflix, JP, Signature Bank Locations: Republic

☆ Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy is growing faster and oil prices will climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy in on track to see a jump in growth, according to DataTrek Research. Oil prices should rise if China's economy is accelerating, as its air quality suggests. This proves our basis point that air pollution readings can give investors an early call on a country's economy," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said. In fact, the air quality in Beijing has seen a "very visible" increase in air pollution in the last two weeks, as has Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, it will take weeks for the recent rise in China's air pollution to register in the official economic data.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Brent Organizations: Research, Service, DataTrek Research Locations: China, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Shanghai

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