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” - 3 Agron Nicaj - 2 Kevin McCarthy - 1 acquiesce - 1 Greg Daco - 1 Price - 1 Julia Pollak - 1 Austan Goolsbee - 1
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5 mentions found


☆ Government shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —In the event of a US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will stop releasing data, including key figures on inflation and unemployment. A lack of crucial government data would make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the US economy. “By the time the Fed discovered its mistake, the effects of excessive monetary tightening could be difficult to reverse,” she said. It’s unclear whether the Fed would hold rates steady in the absence of government data or how it would navigate a government shutdown when deliberating monetary policy. The effects of a government shutdown also depend on how long it lasts, which also isn’t clear at this point.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, acquiesce, Greg Daco, ”, Agron Nicaj, Price, Julia Pollak Organizations: DC CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Republicans, “, MUFG, Labor, Survey, ZipRecruiter, Fed Locations: Washington, EY, United States, —
☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
  + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia
☆ July Jobs Report U.S. Job Growth Expected to Remain Sturdy
  + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lydia Depillis | Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
PinnedIt’s been a slow, bumpy road, but the labor market appears to be rounding itself into a more familiar shape. “Right now a good characterization of the labor market would be ‘normalizing’ rather than ‘slowing,’” said Agron Nicaj, an economist with the Japanese bank MUFG. Most of that is a reversion to historical averages — a “normalization,” as Mr. Nicaj prefers to call it. “Strong profit margins have allowed companies to maintain employment,” Mr. Nicaj said. “When you do see that shrinking, that’s a pretty strong signal that at some point you’re going to see job losses.”
Persons: It’s, ’ ”, Agron Nicaj, Nicaj, “, ” Mr, ” Locations: Silicon Valley
☆ U.S. job growth likely slowed again in November; labor market still tight
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But the labor market remains tight, with 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in October, keeping the Fed on its monetary tightening path at least through the first half of 2023. Labor market strength is also one of the reasons economists believe an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow. The labor market is still very strong and still very tight," said Agron Nicaj, U.S. economist at MUFG in New York. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, consistent with a still-tight labor market. "I still believe the economy tips into a short and shallow recession mid-2023, based on eroding labor market growth, but the probability of no recession is now higher," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.
☆ Everyone from the vet to the barber is hiking prices. And there’s no relief in sight
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
And that’s exactly where inflation can get “sticky,” meaning once prices for services rise they tend to remain at those levels for some time. “When you have strong price pressures in the services sector, they’re likely to last longer,” Nicaj said. That’s the risk that you also take as a business raising prices, because you may lose clients.”To Ryczko, it’s a strategic balancing act. Courtesy Genora Boykins and Sharon Owens“I don’t know of any goods that we are utilizing that haven’t increased in cost,” Boykins said. “Even if it doesn’t necessarily turn around, at least you don’t want [prices] to continue to escalate month after month after month.”
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