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Optimism about household finances hit a multiyear high following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory in November, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The results follow Trump’s Nov. 5 victory that will send him back to the White House for a second nonconsecutive term. Even with the increase in sentiment, consumers’ inflation outlook is still cautious, according to the New York Fed Survey. Though Trump has made little mention of attacking the government’s debt and deficit load, the outlook there improved as well. The median expectation for growth in government debt was at 6.2%, down 2.3 percentage points from October and the lowest level since February 2020.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Trump Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, White, Republican, New York Fed Survey Locations: New
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump holds an award during the FOX Nation's Patriot Awards at the Tilles Center on December 05, 2024 in Greenvale, New York. Optimism about household finances hit a multiyear high following Donald Trump's presidential election victory in November, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. Even with the increase in sentiment, consumers' inflation outlook is still cautious, according to the New York Fed Survey. Though Trump has made little mention of attacking the government's debt and deficit load, the outlook there improved as well. The median expectation for growth in government debt was at 6.2%, down 2.3 percentage points from October and the lowest level since February 2020.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Joe Biden, Trump Organizations: FOX, Tilles Center, New York Federal Reserve, White, Republican, New York Fed Survey Locations: Greenvale , New York, New
Inflation is not deadDaly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? As evidenced by the young man's question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell. watch nowThe annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Goldman Sachs, Mary Daly, Daly, Goldman, Jerome Powell, , hasn't, haven't Organizations: Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, New York University Stern School of Business, Commerce Department, Fed, York Fed, Bank of America, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, , Wyoming, Atlanta, York
But they’re growing increasingly anxious about mounting credit card debt. Debt balances have been growing, and US consumers are nervous about whether they’ll be able to keep up: Americans haven’t been this worried about missing a minimum debt payment since April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, that’s the highest delinquency expectation reading seen in the monthly survey since January 2017. “For people with good incomes and good credit scores, things are going well; they’re still able to access plenty of credit and, by and large, paying on time,” he said. Now the other half, that can be a much more troublesome situation when you think about potentially longer-term credit card debt.”Lower-income Americans face higher inflation, research shows.
Persons: they’ll, haven’t, Ted Rossman, it’s, that’s, ” Rossman, Rossman, , they’re, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Fed, Bankrate, , Minneapolis Federal, of Labor Statistics, York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Minneapolis
Read previewTodd, a 53-year-old IT professional based in Nashville, had a long journey to a six-figure salary. However, for many Americans, reaching a six-figure income could still have a significant impact on their lives. Todd shared how he's turned his six-figure salary into a $1 million net worth — and why he plans to extend his working years longer than he might need to. When Todd landed a six-figure income — and his financial circumstances began to change significantly — he didn't go on a spending spree. He hopes to pay off his mortgage before age 60 — his goal retirement age.
Persons: , Todd, he'd, I'm, doesn't, he's, I've, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Cisco, BI, New, Fed, American Express Locations: Nashville
New college graduates are having a harder time finding work, and as a result, some of them could see their careers and earnings take a hit for years. Meaning that recent college graduates have been more likely to be unemployed than the broader population. This new normal has worked out OK for some Americans, but it's been particularly tough on new college graduates. While the tough job market could temporarily hurt some young graduates' earnings, there's reason to be optimistic that their finances could eventually recover. But if the job market continues to prove frustrating, some of them may begin to wonder.
Persons: Lohanny Santos couldn't, Zer, Santos isn't, overqualified, millennials, Gen Zers aren't, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, it's, — aren't, they'd, , grads —, Goldman Sachs, Elise Peng, Louis, who's Organizations: Service, Business, New York Fed, NY Fed, Meta, Rice University's, Bloomberg, LinkedIn, National Association of Colleges, Glass Institute, Strada Education Foundation, Federal, Louis Fed
Read previewWhen Joshua first earned a $100,000 salary about five years ago, it didn't impact his lifestyle much. "I wasn't able to splurge or to afford luxurious things," the 30-year-old fintech professional, who's based in Georgia, told Business Insider via email. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Business Insider asked three people who've made over $100,000 a year how becoming a six-figure-earner did — and didn't — change their lives and relationships. For many of these people, a $100,000 salary could, in fact, be life-changing.
Persons: , Joshua, doesn't, What's, who've, Cole H, Mattes, it's, ALICE, Maksim Sonin, — he's, he's Organizations: Service, Business, New York Fed, New, Fed, eBay, Monarch Media, United, Stanford University Locations: Georgia, California
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, FOMC, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, University of Michigan, New York Fed Locations: Washington , U.S
Why Americans might be getting worried about the job marketIn some ways, Americans' growing pessimism in the job market is perplexing. That's because the job market has become more challenging than it was a couple of years ago, when the Great Resignation was at its peak. So, it's possible that some Americans in certain industries are facing a job market where openings are far from abundant. For example, there's some evidence that the job market for high-wage roles has cooled over the past year. Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider earlier this month after April's labor market figures were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that it is "no longer a white-hot labor market" or a job "candidate's market in every industry where workers can get whatever they want."
Persons: , they'd, hasn't, What's, Joanne Hsu, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, NY, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New, Fed, LinkedIn, NY Fed, University of, Labor Locations: York
On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
New York CNN —The American dream of homeownership is looking more like a nightmare. With inflation heating up again, the Federal Reserve is in no position to consider lowering interest rates at its upcoming meetings. That’s according to a New York Fed survey gauging consumers’ expectations of the housing market, released Monday. Consumers are gearing up for even bigger increases compared to the expected rise in mortgage rates over the next year, the New York Fed survey found. The issue of rent affordability is particularly pronounced in New York City, where housing costs have always been notoriously high compared to other parts of the country, absent a brief respite during the pandemic.
Persons: That’s, Kenny Lee, Aditya Bhave, Neel Kashkari, Bhave, ” Bhave, , Perdue “, , Read, TikTok, Joe Biden, Brian Fung, Bytedance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, New, Fed, Zillow, Bank of America, CNN, Minneapolis, Bloomberg, United States Department of Labor, Seaboard Triumph Foods, Perdue, Labor Department, Seaboard, Labor, Packers Sanitation Services, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit Locations: New York, New York City, Fayette, DOL, Sioux City , Iowa, Accomac , Virginia, China
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New
Stubbornly high inflation and a wobbly jobs market are combining to pose an ominous threat to the U.S. economy, Bank of America chief market strategist Michael Hartnett warned. The result is a narrative of "macro shifting from Q4/Q1 'Goldilocks' to Q1/Q2 'Stagflation,'" Hartnett said in his weekly "Flow Show" note to clients dated Thursday. As Hartnett indicated, the U.S. closed 2023 with the labor market looking strong and GDP posting a solid 3.2% gain. On the jobs market, while nonfarm payrolls have risen strongly , household employment actually is down by about 900,000 since November and full-time jobs have declined by nearly 1.8 million. The Fed is "implicitly ... tolerating higher inflation" as way to inflate the debt away, a condition that means "weaker policy credibility = weaker currency … why crypto & gold [are] at all-time highs."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Stagflation, nonfarm, specter, That's Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, U.S ., Atlanta Fed, Nasdaq Locations: U.S
Inflation comes in hotter than expected
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.
Persons: That's, , That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,
Gold flat ahead of US inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday, as investors held back from making big bets ahead of a U.S. inflation report that could give fresh perspective on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut. Spot gold was flat at $2,018.71 per ounce, as of 0424 GMT, after briefly slipping to a more than two-week low of $2,011.72/Oz on Monday. All eyes are on the January U.S. consumer price index inflation data due at 13:30 GMT. Americans reported a fairly stable outlook for inflation at the start of the year, a New York Fed survey showed. Spot platinum was flat at $888.89 per ounce, palladium rose 1.5% to $905.71, and silver edged 0.1% higher to $22.71.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Wang Tao Organizations: Federal, KCM Trade, New, Fed, Reuters, U.S ., Traders, U.S Locations: Moscow, Russia, U.S, ., China, Hong Kong
"These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation," survey Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. But progress this year has been inconsistent, and Fed officials remain wary of the potential for a reversal. That said, the University of Michigan survey results are at odds with other measures of inflation expectations that have shown they have in fact been moderating. A New York Fed survey of consumers last week, for instance, showed inflation expectations over both one-year and five-year horizons eased in October even as the Michigan survey showed them accelerating. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are also declining.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Quincy Krosby, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, University of Michigan's, Fed, Global, LPL, University of Michigan, New York Fed, . Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: Michigan
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S
Research prepared for a Boston Federal Reserve labor market conference found that whether driving for Uber to make ends meet or taking piecework jobs in retirement, casual contract workers sometimes don't consider themselves "employed" or even a part of the labor force. The research involved reexamining the detailed responses to a New York Fed survey of "informal work" from 2015 through 2022. Other research looked at how job training and policies towards employing those with a criminal record might help. Their research found many gig workers want additional hours of formal employment, suggesting more untapped labor supply. "And the higher levels of activity and participation can benefit those brought into the labor market, contributing to a vibrant economy that works for all."
Persons: Mike Segar, Uber, Anat Bracha, Mary A, Burke, Bracha, rehashed, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, Collins, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights BOSTON, Federal, Boston Federal Reserve, Hebrew University Business School, Boston Fed, Fed, New, Labor, Boston, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Jerusalem
But the steady ebbing of inflation hasn't translated into good news for either President Joe Biden or the Federal Reserve when it comes to public opinion. They're just going up at a slower rate," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week when asked at a research conference about common public misconceptions. Inflation expectations have fallen, according to a New York Fed survey but remain well above the central bank's 2% target. Both Waller and Fed Governor Lisa Cook took note of the public mood last week in similar comments about the expectation for prices to fall, which they don't frequently do. Reuters GraphicsBut if inflation readings continue to show a slowdown, the Fed could put more weight on sustaining the strength of the job market.
Persons: Joe Biden, They're, Christopher Waller, That's, Biden, Jeff Jones, Waller, Lisa Cook, Derek Tang, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Democratic, Gallup, Reuters Graphics, New, FOCUS, Biden, Thomson Locations: U.S, shutdowns
Consumers’ expectations for inflation one year and five years from now both dropped 0.1 percentage points from the month before, to land at 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively. However, median inflation expectations at the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 3%, a yearly high. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer survey showed sentiment was waning about the current economic state and that inflation expectations ticked up over the long run. The median expected growth in household income ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1%. Overall, more respondents to the New York Fed survey said their households were better off than they were this time last year.
Persons: they’ll Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, New Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York
Smucker's $5.6 bln buyout dealIndexes: S&P 500 +0.67%, Nasdaq +1.14%, Dow +0.25%Sept 11 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq closed sharply higher on Monday as Tesla surged on optimism around artificial intelligence and investors awaited inflation data due later this week. The S&P 500 climbed 0.67% to end at 4,487.46 points. Hostess Brands (TWNK.O) surged 19.1% after J. M. Smucker (SJM.N) said it would buy the Twinkies-maker in a $5.6 billion deal. Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 14 new highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 36 new highs and 199 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, megacaps, Walt Disney, Greg Bassuk, chipmaker, Ankika Biswas, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shubham Batra, Noel Randewich, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Qualcomm, Apple Hostess Brands, Nasdaq, Dow, Amazon, Microsoft, Sunday, Charter Communications, ESPN, NFL, Federal, New York Fed, PPI, AXS Investments, Traders, Dow Jones, Apple, Hostess Brands, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru, Oakland, Calif
The relative stability of inflation expectations last month came as the survey found respondents predicted accelerating price increases for a range of key categories. At the same time, survey respondents were more downbeat about access to credit and their current and future financial positions. A record number of households reported that credit was harder to get and a rising number of respondents predicted tougher credit access in the months ahead. The New York Fed survey arrives as the Fed moves toward its next rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for September 19-20. Inflation expectations “have been incredibly well behaved, “ New York Fed President John Williams said last Thursday.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, , John Williams, we've, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Fed, “ New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, July’s, Central
The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York
The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.
Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson
Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius
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