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"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.
Persons: , Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley
According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/three-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. The inversion is not aloneMaking the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn't the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last. But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve.
Persons: Alex Kent, hasn't, , there's, it's, Mark Zandi, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, SMBC, Quincy Krosby, We've, Jim Paulsen, Paulsen, That's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's, New York Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, Gross, National Bureau of Economic Research, Commerce Department, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading around 4.1672% at 2:20 a.m. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also 2 basis points higher at 4.4524%. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as investors digested a range of comments by Federal Reserve officials and what they could mean for interest rates. It comes as traders increasingly bet on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a reduction in July now seen as highly unlikely. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates would likely be cut before inflation reaches 2%.
Persons: Christopher Waller, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, you've, Powell, Dow Jones, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, York Fed, Wall Street Journal, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of Washington D.C
Read previewThe US hasn't dodged a recession, and the economy is slowing too quickly to nail a soft landing, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2 money supply has contracted for most of the past two years, and grew by just 0.5% year-over-year in early June, according to Fed data. That compares to early 2021, when the M2 money supply grew at 27% as pandemic stimulus juiced economic activity. The growth rate of the money supply is also well-below the 6% growth rate Hanke estimates is on par with 2% inflation. "The average guy on the street corner knows that if they goose the money supply, you're going to get inflation.
Persons: , Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Julia La Roche, — we've Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Fed, US, New York Fed Locations: New
Gold shines on rising Fed rate-cut outlook
  + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,461.27 per ounce, as of 0218 GMT. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams both noted the shortening horizon toward looser monetary policy. Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he is "very encouraged" on broadening declines in inflation. "Over the next 6-12 months, regardless of who wins the (U.S.) election, we see gold rising to $2700-$3000 and silver to $38," Citi Research said. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $30.35, platinum steadied at $994.81 and palladium gained 0.4% to $955.77.
Persons: Ryan McIntyre, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, CME's Organizations: Sprott Asset Management, Holdings, New York Fed, Richmond Fed, Federal, Citi Research, Investors, U.S Locations: U.S, ., China
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders
What do they mean by making America affordable again? Depending on the interpretation, that’s either something that has already happened or a really bad idea. Before I get there, a word about falling inflation. I get many comments to the effect that whatever official statistics may say, Americans don’t see inflation coming down. Here, for example, are the results of a survey conducted by the New York Fed:
Persons: , Donald Trump’s Organizations: Republican Party, America, New York Fed
Rudy Giuliani speaks to members of the media where Florida Gov. A New York federal bankruptcy judge on Friday in a scathing ruling dismissed the Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection case of Rudy Giuliani, immediately exposing the newly disbarred former Trump lawyer to his creditors seeking repayments of his massive debts in other court venues. Those creditors include two Georgia election workers, to whom Giuliani owes $148 million in civil damages for defamation from a federal district court jury award in December. Freeman and Moss, unlike many other Giuliani creditors, supported the idea of dismissing the bankruptcy case in the Southern District of New York, which he filed days after losing the defamation judgment. In his ruling on Friday, Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane wrote that he "finds that dismissal of this bankruptcy case with a one year bar to refiling is in the best interests of creditors."
Persons: Rudy Giuliani, Ron DeSantis, Giuliani, Ruby Freeman, Moss, Donald Trump, Freeman, New York, Joe Biden, Sean Lane, Lane, Giuliani's Organizations: Florida Gov, New, Trump, New York City, of, of Justice Locations: Florida, Manchester , New Hampshire, New York, Georgia, Southern, of New York, New, Arizona
New York CNN —In lower Manhattan, a jury is now weighing a case against a little-known investor who made it big, lost everything, and briefly brought Wall Street to its knees. His positions were so large that when the stocks started falling, it had a seismic effect on the market. And on Tuesday, after a two-month trial in New York federal court, the case was handed over to a jury that will decide their fate. Before Archegos, market watchers knew unregulated family offices were a problem, and they knew that swaps going unreported was a problem. “Fifteen years after the global financial crash, we still have gross under-regulation of non-banks, and we have Wall Street megabanks engaged in high-risk activities that aren’t properly regulated,” Kelleher told me.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Bill Hwang, Wall, Bill Hwang’s, Hwang, Patrick Halligan, Halligan, Josh Naftalis, , Naftalis, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Dennis Kelleher, Wang, there’s, megabanks, ” Kelleher, Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Warner Bros, Prosecutors, Bloomberg, Southern, of, Pallas Partners Locations: New York, Manhattan, of New York
Aimee Harris, right, walks out of Manhattan federal court, Tuesday, April 9, 2024, in New York. A Florida woman was arrested Monday in Georgia on motor vehicle, marijuana, and other state charges just one day before her scheduled voluntary surrender to begin a month-long jail term for stealing and selling the diary of President Joe Biden's daughter Ashley Biden, prosecutors revealed in a New York federal court filing. Harris, 42, was sentenced in April to one month in jail and three months of home detention. She had been scheduled to surrender on Tuesday at noon to begin serving her jail sentence. "The defendant is currently in state custody in connection with those charges."
Persons: Aimee Harris, Joe Biden's, Ashley Biden, Harris, Ashley Biden's, Laura Taylor Swain, Swain Organizations: U.S, Marshals, U.S . Bureau, Prisons, Attorney's, Sunday Locations: Manhattan, New York, Florida, Georgia, Palm Beach, U.S, McIntosh County , Georgia, Carolina
Guo Wengui (also known as Miles Kwok) holds a news conference with Steve Bannon in New York, New York, U.S., November 20, 2018. Finkel showed jurors videos of Guo wearing sunglasses and standing on the deck of a yacht pitching investments. "Was Miles Guo targeted by the CCP? Prosecutors say Guo used multiple aliases, including Miles Guo and Miles Kwok. Guo paid Bannon $1 million as part of a consulting contract designed to lend legitimacy to his anti Chinese Communist Party movement, Finkel said.
Persons: Guo Wengui, Miles Kwok, Steve Bannon, Carlo Allegri, Ryan Finkel, Guo, Finkel, Miles Guo, Donald Trump, Bannon, Luc Cohen, Noeleen Walder, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Lamborghini, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, Prosecutors, Thomson Locations: New York , New York, U.S, Manhattan, Connecticut, China, New York
A Florida woman was arrested Monday in Georgia on motor vehicle, marijuana, and other misdemeanor state charges just one day before her scheduled voluntary surrender to begin a monthlong jail term for stealing and selling the diary of President Joe Biden's daughter Ashley Biden, prosecutors revealed in a New York federal court filing. Harris, 42, was sentenced in April to one month in jail and three months of home detention. She had been scheduled to surrender Tuesday at noon to begin serving her jail sentence. "The defendant is currently in state custody in connection with those charges." The arrest report, obtained by CNBC by the McIntosh County Sheriff's Office, shows that Harris was arrested at 11:30 p.m.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Ashley Biden, Aimee Harris, Harris, Ashley Biden's, Laura Taylor Swain, Swain Organizations: U.S . Bureau, Prisons, Attorney's, CNBC, Sunday Locations: Florida, Georgia, New York, Palm Beach, U.S, Manhattan, McIntosh County , Georgia, McIntosh, Darien, Carolina
watch nowTo keep up with the high cost of living, many young adults turn to a likely safety net: their parents. "The high cost of living is certainly impacting Gen Z," said Holly O'Neill, president of retail banking at Bank of America. The financial institution polled more than 1,000 Gen Z adults in April and May. Even compared with millennials, Gen Zers are spending significantly more on necessities than young adults did a decade ago, other reports show. Fewer Americans feel financially comfortable overallBut it's not just Gen Z struggling.
Persons: Zers, , Holly O'Neill, millennials, Gen Zers, homeownership, Brett House, O'Neill, Z, it's, Bankrate Organizations: Bank of America, New York Fed, Columbia Business School, Finance
Read previewIn 2018, at age 40, Kenneth Ferraro decided to pursue a college degree for the first time. Ferraro, who's based in Texas, had worked as a truck driver for decades, he told Business Insider via email. The perceived benefits of a college degree have led more Americans to go back to school later in life. Related storiesFerraro shared the biggest challenges he's faced in his job search, including why he thinks having a college degree has sometimes worked against him. While having a college degree improved his credentials, he thinks his age has held him back in the job market.
Persons: , Kenneth Ferraro, Ferraro, who's, Ferraro's, he's, it's, " Ferraro, wasn't Organizations: Service, Business, New York University, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Center for Education Statistics, New York Fed Locations: Texas
There are other reasons the dollar has been propelled higher as some European and Asian currencies have seen lackluster growth. A strong dollar makes US exports more expensive and reduces the profits of American companies operating overseas when earnings are converted back to dollars. And while a strong dollar lowers the cost of imported raw materials, it can boost inflation and hurt foreign investments. The families of victims of two fatal crashes of the 737 Max oppose the deal, the department said. Beyond the fatal crashes of the 737 Max jets, the company has faced a series of questions about the safety and quality of its planes.
Persons: it’s, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, , Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley, Louis Navellier, Jeanne Sahadi, Read, Max, Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Navellier, Associates, New York Federal Reserve, Boeing, Justice Department, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, , China, Japan, United States
However, central bank officials still want to see more progress before cutting interest rates, he noted. “The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” he added. Fed officials expect to cut interest rates just once this year, according to their latest economic projections in June, compared to the three cuts they forecast in March. The annual PCE inflation rate registered at 2.6% in June, down slightly from 2.7% in May. Fed officials and most economists don’t see a recession this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, Inflation, John Williams, ” Seema Shah Organizations: Washington CNN, Inflation, Committee, Financial, ” New York Fed, Congress, Fed, Asset Management Locations: India, United States
The rally in stocks could be endangered if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon, Jeremy Siegel warned. The Wharton professor made the case for the central bank to cut rates in September as data softens. AdvertisementThe rally in stocks and the strength of the economy is at risk if the Fed doesn't start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. No rate cut in September could put a recession on the table, Siegel warned, in addition to endangering the trajectory for stocks. Advertisement"So although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and the growth stocks are still certainly walloping the value stocks, I think Powell has to take note," Siegel said.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, , who's, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, New, Fed
Money problems can be an early sign of dementia
  + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
When a family member who has been fairly responsible with money all their lives becomes careless with their finances, it may be one sign of as-yet-undiagnosed dementia. “The harmful financial effects of undiagnosed memory disorders exacerbate the already substantial financial pressure households face upon diagnosis,” the researchers wrote. Two parents with dementia, one daughter’s efforts to reduce financial worryJayne Sibley, who lives in the United Kingdom, knows the pain and stress of dealing with the financial behaviors that can signal dementia. Her mother also would take money out of the cash machine two to three times a day and give it to anyone who asked. Of course, no amount of advanced financial planning can alleviate the heartbreak of watching a loved one with dementia decline.
Persons: Marcey Tidwell, , Tidwell, Karen Lemay, , Lemay, hadn’t, ” Lemay, Jayne Sibley, ” Sibley, Sibley, doling, Ditto, ’ ”, ” Tidwell Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal Reserve, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, US National Institute, Aging Locations: New York, Bloomington , Indiana, Ottawa, Canada, United Kingdom, Sibley
It's time for the Fed to cut rates at the end of July. Add to that the moderation in the consumer price index , the producer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – and the need to wait for further signs of improvement seems like overkill. Also, if the Fed dials back policy later – rather than sooner – there will be claims of political interference if it cut rates immediately before the presidential election. The central bank has been dealing with an economy-crashing pandemic, a surge in prices and uncertainty over how its policies would affect the broad economy, inflation and consumer behavior over time. This is a factor that will likely drive inflation rates lower.
Persons: Adrian –, , Mickey, Dow Jones, Joe Biden, Adrian . Go, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, New York Federal, Atlanta, CNBC
“So far, the labor market has adjusted slowly, and the unemployment rate has only edged up. The industries that were most likely to advertise part-time work as of May were beauty and wellness; personal care and home health; retail; food preparation and service; and sports, Indeed said. During the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, part-time work rose sharply, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. “There was this rise in part-time work when the economy and the labor market were doing well coming out of the pandemic,” Culbertson told CNN. The US Labor Department releases June figures gauging the state of the labor market, including monthly job growth, wage gains and the unemployment rate.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, Daniel Culbertson, ” Culbertson, Alicia Wallace, Friday’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Companies, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of, CNN, Commerce Department, Commerce, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, Constellation Brands, Constellation Brands . New York Fed, US Commerce Department, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Constellation Brands .
Read previewDavid Einhorn warned James Fishback he was on "thin ice" less than a year after hiring him. Einhorn's firm, Greenlight Capital, is suing his former analyst, Fishback, Tuesday evening in New York. Advertisement"And, since he had absolutely no authority or discretion whatsoever over Greenlight's macro investment portfolio, he was not responsible for generating any profits, let alone 'over $100 million' of profits." Threats to disrupt Greenlight's partner dinnerThe suit claims Fishback threatened to stand outside Greenlight's annual gathering of investors and service providers with letters that "maliciously and disingenuously called into question Greenlight's macro investing abilities." AdvertisementThe review showed that Fishback had "almost no work files saved on Greenlight's network drive, and had engaged in very little activity on Greenlight's computer system.
Persons: , David Einhorn, James Fishback, Fishback, Greenlight, Greenlight — Fishback, Azoria, Fishback's, Bari, Einhorn Organizations: Service, Greenlight, Business, Azoria Partners, Citi Locations: New York, Greenlight
London CNN —At the beginning of the year, Federal Reserve officials projected they would cut interest rates three times this year. The labor-force participation rate has leveled off after a post-Covid boom, and the US immigration policy rate may soon become more restrictive, limiting potential new labor market participants. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2% over the longer run.”Investors weren’t happy to hear it. That’s why not taking preemptive action when it’s not necessary is so important.”Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has also been particularly hawkish in his views. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, she’s, ” Bowman, Bowman, , Dow, Mary Daly, Daly, ” Daly, “ We’re, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, he’s Organizations: London CNN —, Federal Reserve, Exchange, London ., Federal, Market, Nvidia, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Commerce Department Locations: London, San Francisco, Kashkari , New
Read previewAmerica's stimulus-fueled shopping spree looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, US Census data shows. That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently. "Early signs of a consumer recession finally coming to the fore." AdvertisementThe US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the New York Fed.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Stephanie Pomboy, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Pantheon Macroeconomics
Washington CNN —America’s top central banker recently said the job market now looks the way it did before the Covid-19 pandemic drastically upended society. Before the Bell spoke with Julia Pollak, chief economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter, about her views of the job market. Before the Bell: Do you agree with Chair Powell’s view that today’s job market is back to a pre-pandemic normal? Why is the job market slower now? The number of job openings is higher than it was by around 15% or so, but online job postings are actually lower by ZipRecruiter’s count.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Jerome Powell, Powell, it’s, Bell, Julia Pollak, they’re, They’re, Olesya Dmitracova, Emmanuel Macron, Read, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Tom Barkin, Susan Collins, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan, Alberto Musalem, Goolsbee Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Fed, Labor, EU, National, New York Fed, Manufacturing Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Accenture, Kroger, Darden, Bank of England, US Labor Department, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Global, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, France, Wells Fargo
New college graduates are having a harder time finding work, and as a result, some of them could see their careers and earnings take a hit for years. Meaning that recent college graduates have been more likely to be unemployed than the broader population. This new normal has worked out OK for some Americans, but it's been particularly tough on new college graduates. While the tough job market could temporarily hurt some young graduates' earnings, there's reason to be optimistic that their finances could eventually recover. But if the job market continues to prove frustrating, some of them may begin to wonder.
Persons: Lohanny Santos couldn't, Zer, Santos isn't, overqualified, millennials, Gen Zers aren't, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, it's, — aren't, they'd, , grads —, Goldman Sachs, Elise Peng, Louis, who's Organizations: Service, Business, New York Fed, NY Fed, Meta, Rice University's, Bloomberg, LinkedIn, National Association of Colleges, Glass Institute, Strada Education Foundation, Federal, Louis Fed
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