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You’d think that would mean the economy is coasting, since periods of low unemployment are generally associated with higher rates of economic prosperity. That seems to be the case with a lot of recent economic data: No piece of good news comes without other evidence that give economists pause. “I wouldn’t give the economy a clean bill of health,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. But given consumer spending is one of the biggest drivers of the economy, a pullback can have adverse effects, too. The uglyThe biggest flashing red light in the economy right now is the level of debt people are racking up.
Persons: Zers, , Gregory Daco, Joe Biden, there’s, Donald Trump’s, Here’s what’s, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ” David Alcaly, Daco, ” Sung Won Sohn Organizations: New, New York CNN, EY, of Labor Statistics, Federal, Gov, Lazard, CNN, New York Fed, Loyola Marymount University, SS Locations: New York, Wisconsin
watch nowOutcomes for workers without a degree are improvingIn fact, young adults without a college degree are doing better than they have in years, according to Pew's analysis of government data. Since then, circumstances — and earnings — have continued to rise for workers with just a high school diploma or some college. Improving job opportunities for "new-collar" workers without a degree continues to drive more students away from college. Finishing college puts workers on track to earn a median of $2.8 million over their lifetimes, compared with $1.6 million if they only had a high school diploma, Georgetown's report found. Adults with at least a bachelor's degree report higher financial well-being than adults with lower levels of education, according to a Federal Reserve study on economic well-being of U.S. households.
Persons: Fry, , Hafeez Lakhani, There's, Pew, Paul Steiner Organizations: Labor, Georgetown University Center, Education, Federal, College, ECMC Group, Virginia's Fairfax County Public Schools, Community Education Locations: New York, York, U.S, Virginia's Fairfax County
Read preview"We are paying off each other debt on TikTok," a creator recently declared. The creator, named Yolanda, was gushing about the "pay off each other's debt" trend that seems to have become popular on the app. More than 4,000 videos have been posted under the #payoffdebttrend hashtag on TikTok, with creators asking for help for various reasons including medical bills, student debt, and unexpected costs. The requirements for earning money on TikTok are to have at least 10,000 followers and to have amassed 100,000 video views in the previous 30 days. AdvertisementAccording to creators who previously spoke with BI in 2022, the amount TikTok pays creators varies widely from a few pennies to $17 per 1,000 views.
Persons: , Yolanda, TikTok, Katya Varbanova, Jake Heisenburg, Heisenburg, commenter, didn't, he'd, Markia Brown, Mark Tilbury, Varbanova, it's, Brown, isn't Organizations: Service, Business, New York Federal Reserve Bank, TikTok, Facebook Locations: TikTok, Experian
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, FOMC, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, University of Michigan, New York Fed Locations: Washington , U.S
Rachel Wisniewski | ReutersAmericans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite. "As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. But those options have fallen out of favor as interest rates rose. He also cited increased interest rates as another weight on their shoulders. Lofty interest rates have also hampered housing improvement efforts for those staying put, according to Home Depot .
Persons: Rachel Wisniewski, Joe, Shelly Ibach, Ibach, FactSet, Mark Mathews, Platt, J, Mitchell Dolloff, Dow Jones, it's, Mathews, Enphase, Badri Kothandaraman, Marc Bitzer, Patrick T, bode, Robert Ohmes, Richard McPhail, It's, McPhail Organizations: Reuters, Reserve, Prosper, National Retail Federation, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Management, Commerce Department, Consumers, Whirlpool, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Gilbertsville , Pennsylvania, Minneapolis, U.S, California, Torrance , Calif, Minnesota
The stock market is headed for a disappointing few months. And I think we should also be prepared to see some nasty aggressive selloff along the way," Morrison said. "Political volatility is, in itself… going to trip over stock market volatility," McGough warned. More extreme forecasters have predicted a market crash as steep as 65%, as equities mirror previous bubbles. You're probably going to come back without the material move one way or the other," McGough said.
Persons: there's, , David Morrison, Morrison, Will McGough, McGough Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Trade, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Prime Capital Investment Advisors, Fed, New York Fed, Treasury
Why Americans might be getting worried about the job marketIn some ways, Americans' growing pessimism in the job market is perplexing. That's because the job market has become more challenging than it was a couple of years ago, when the Great Resignation was at its peak. So, it's possible that some Americans in certain industries are facing a job market where openings are far from abundant. For example, there's some evidence that the job market for high-wage roles has cooled over the past year. Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider earlier this month after April's labor market figures were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that it is "no longer a white-hot labor market" or a job "candidate's market in every industry where workers can get whatever they want."
Persons: , they'd, hasn't, What's, Joanne Hsu, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, NY, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New, Fed, LinkedIn, NY Fed, University of, Labor Locations: York
Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York
Dow crosses 40,000 for the first time
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | )   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —The Dow broke past the 40,000 threshold Thursday morning for the first time ever, fueled by an encouraging inflation report. It also highlights a notable contrast between sentiment on Wall Street and Main Street. Dow 100: The Dow first closed in triple digits in January 1906. The Dow nearly matched that in 2017, rising 25%. Dow 30,000: Nov. 24, 2020: Covid sent the stock market plunging in the spring of 2020.
Persons: Dow, stoking, , Gary Pzegeo, John Williams, Tom Barkin, ” Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Hogan, Teddy Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Trump, Covid Organizations: New, New York CNN, Markets, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CIBC Private Wealth, , Walmart, Airlines, Big Tech, York Fed, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Dow, University of Michigan, CNN, CPI, University of St, Riley Financial, Wall, Microsoft, Chevron, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal, Woolworth, Eastman Kodak Locations: New York, United States, Minnesota, Chevron —, AFP
Americans now owe $1.12 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Keeping up with credit card debt is getting more difficult. "Rent, when you have it, auto loans, utilities, these are all things consumers prioritize ahead of credit cards." As a result, credit card delinquency rates are higher across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported.
Persons: Charlie Wise, TransUnion's, Young, Wise, TransUnion, Kassandra Martinchek Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Finance, Fed, Urban Institute Locations: TransUnion, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
Stocks turned lower and closed in the red on Thursday after the Dow briefly crossing 40,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 failed to extend its gains after closing at a record high on Wednesday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The Dow failed to close above the key threshold, and the S&P 500 struggled to consolidate gains after hitting a record close on Wednesday. AdvertisementBroadly, the Fed speakers on Thursday painted a picture of a central bank in no hurry to pivot as inflation remains above its 2% target.
Persons: Stocks, , Dow, Tom Barkin, John Williams, Barkin Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, York Fed, Reuters, CNBC Locations: Here's
Most non-retired adults have some type of retirement savings, but only 36% think their savings are on track. New research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that this retirement savings deficit hasn’t made a dent in when Americans plan to exit, or partially exit, the workforce. “The pandemic-induced change in retirement expectations may continue to affect the labor market in years to come,” they wrote. Yes, but: This is a survey of expectations, researchers at the New York Fed are quick to point out. Just because Americans say they plan to shift to part-time work or retire early, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to.
Persons: Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, Wilbert van der, , They’re, Alicia Wallace, delinquencies, Joelle, CNN’s Parija, Donna Morris, Morris, ” Morris Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Census, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Social Security, New, Survey, SCE, triannual, Social, Social Security Agency, Lawmakers, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, Credit, Walmart, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area Locations: New York, United States, York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, Walmart’s Dallas, Atlanta, Toronto, Bentonville, San Francisco Bay, Hoboken , New Jersey
New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as household debt balances grew during the first quarter, delinquencies also marched higher. Notably, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency (90 days or more late) climbed to its highest level since 2012. The transitions into delinquency — especially serious delinquency — increased across all debt types, according to the report. Overall household debt grew by 1.1% during the first quarter to $17.69 trillion, according to data that is not adjusted for inflation. Credit card balances dipped (as they typically do post-holidays) by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion.
Persons: delinquencies, Joelle, Delinquencies Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, New York Fed, Credit Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, New
Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | )   time to read: +3 min
Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI also increased 0.5% compared to the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. Core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters . Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Commerce, York
Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed found. Credit card rates top 20%At the same time, credit cards have become one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "With the Fed likely to keep rates higher for longer, credit card rates should remain high for the foreseeable future," Rossman said. What to do if you're in credit card debt
Persons: Bankrate, Ted Rossman, Rossman Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
As of the most recent March data, the average reservation wage for Americans with a college degree rose to a survey-high of $99,081, up from $97,270 in March 2023 and $81,758 in March 2020. It means that not as many Americans are landing new jobs that pay in the six-figure range. The average reservation wage for people without a degree was $68,390, up from $59,683 in March 2023 and $48,778 in March 2020. The average reservation wage among all respondents was $81,822, up from $75,811 and $61,377 in March 2020. AdvertisementAre you struggling to find a six-figure job?
Persons: , it's Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor Statistics, New, New York Fed Locations: York, New York
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.
Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, , Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, , Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, , US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, , South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico
On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
Stock futures flickered near the flatline Monday evening as Wall Street braced for the release of key inflation reports. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.08%. Another market catalyst will emerge Tuesday morning as the first of two key inflation reports will be released. "It's not unusual for Wall Street and Main Street to see the economy differently — the different perspective stems from different points of focus. Stock market movements are based on expectations of future economic performance, not necessarily current conditions," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Brent Schutte Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, New York Federal Reserve, PPI, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
New York CNN —The American dream of homeownership is looking more like a nightmare. With inflation heating up again, the Federal Reserve is in no position to consider lowering interest rates at its upcoming meetings. That’s according to a New York Fed survey gauging consumers’ expectations of the housing market, released Monday. Consumers are gearing up for even bigger increases compared to the expected rise in mortgage rates over the next year, the New York Fed survey found. The issue of rent affordability is particularly pronounced in New York City, where housing costs have always been notoriously high compared to other parts of the country, absent a brief respite during the pandemic.
Persons: That’s, Kenny Lee, Aditya Bhave, Neel Kashkari, Bhave, ” Bhave, , Perdue “, , Read, TikTok, Joe Biden, Brian Fung, Bytedance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, New, Fed, Zillow, Bank of America, CNN, Minneapolis, Bloomberg, United States Department of Labor, Seaboard Triumph Foods, Perdue, Labor Department, Seaboard, Labor, Packers Sanitation Services, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit Locations: New York, New York City, Fayette, DOL, Sioux City , Iowa, Accomac , Virginia, China
US stocks dropped on Wednesday led by a selloff in the tech sector. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in the tech sector as investors took in weak financials and earnings guidance. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement
Persons: Tesla, , David Bahnsen Organizations: Intel, Reuters, Service, Nasdaq, Justice Department, New York Fed Locations: Here's
Gold rises on Fed rate cut hopes, Middle East tensions
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices ticked higher on Monday, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later in the year and tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. "Investors will look at the political situation in the Middle East and how the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire play out. "Weaker U.S. data offers more policy flexibility for the Fed in terms of rate cuts," paving way for gold prices to stabilize, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Markets are pricing in a 67% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint's gold product sales in April jumped two-fold from a month earlier, while silver sales fell to their lowest since December.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yeap Jun Rong, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, New York Fed Bank, Chicago Fed, Perth Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Gaza, U.S
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.
Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
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