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State polling misses in presidential elections with Trump Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2020 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 Iowa Result Poll avg. State polling misses in presidential elections Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2012 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 S.C. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. Past polling misses in presidential elections for battleground states Years in bold indicate those in which the polling leader lost in that state. D+15 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 R+15 Note: Averages not available for some states in some years.
Persons: it’s, Donald J, Hillary Clinton, Joseph R, Biden, pollsters, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Trump, Mr, Clinton, Obama, Mitt Romney, John McCain, George W, Bush, John Kerry, Al Gore, , Chris Jackson, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, , Berwood Yost, we’ve Organizations: Republican, Mr, Trump Polls, Ohio Texas, Iowa Ohio, Electoral, N.H . Iowa Nev, Nev . Ohio N.M, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa Wis, ., . Ohio Mo, Democratic, Ipsos, Biden, Pew Research, Wisconsin Polling, Michigan Polling, Nevada Polling, Carolina Polling, Arizona Polling, Georgia Polling, Franklin & Marshall, Poll of Pennsylvania Locations: Ohio Texas Fla, N.C ., Ariz . Wis, Pa, Nev . Mich . Wisconsin, N.C, Ariz . Fla, Wis, Pa . Mich, N.H, Minn, Nev, Colo, Fla . Ohio Va, N.H . Iowa, Mich, South Carolina, Mont, Mo, Ind, Indiana, Fla, Nev . Ohio, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa, Ore, Hawaii, . Ohio, N.H . Fla, Iowa Minn, Wash, Ill, Florida, pollsters, State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Carolina, Arizona, Georgia
Read previewWith less than two months to go before the 2024 election, top Republicans and allies of former President Donald Trump are pushing for a last-minute change to the Electoral College. The GOP effort centers on Nebraska, a traditionally Republican state that awards its Electoral College votes in an unusual way. AdvertisementThe Electoral College mathUnder the Electoral College, a candidate needs to win 270 votes — a majority of the 538 total electors — in order to win. AdvertisementMaine earlier this year threatened to switch to a winner-take-all system for Electoral College votes if Nebraska did the same. How one vote could change the electionAs Graham noted, just one Electoral College vote is at stake in Nebraska.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, Harris, Sen, Lindsey Graham of, Graham, Trump, There's, he's, it's, That's, Jen O'Malley Dillon, Jim Pillen Organizations: Service, Electoral College, Business, Electoral, Biden, Trump, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, CBS, Nebraska, Democratic, Maine's, Sun, Representatives, Republicans, Republican Gov, Nebraska Examiner, GOP Locations: Nebraska, Omaha, Lindsey Graham of South, Lincoln, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada , Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Trump, Maine's, Nevada, state's
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