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AdvertisementA key sticking point for the 73,479,065 Americans (and counting) who voted for President-elect Donald Trump was inflation. Inflationary promisesThe main Trump proposals viewed as inflationary are: sweeping tariffs on imports, mass deportation of immigrants, and lower taxes. Related storiesTypically, US companies simply pass the tariff costs to consumers via higher prices, and company executives are already signaling this to investors. Possible inflation falloutIf Trump delivers on all of these proposals, then a rebound in inflation is all but guaranteed, economists have said. AdvertisementIt's worth noting that the tariffs Trump enacted in his first term did not result in a significant inflation increase.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, It's, Taylor Rogers —, Philip Daniele, Timothy Boyle, Wendy Edelberg, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Ned Davis, Veneta Dimitrova, Dimitrova Organizations: Trump, Service, White, Biden, Republican National, Center, Columbia, Washington Post, National Association of Homebuilders, Federal Reserve Locations: China,
Treasury yields have ripped higher of late, even as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared nearly 70 basis points to 4.3% since mid-September, when the Fed cut rates by a half-point. Despite the Fed's latest action, the incoming Trump administration is likely to keep yields elevated, according to Ned Davis Research. Dimitrova noted that rising debt-to-GDP ratio has been closely linked with higher bond yields. The question for investors now is: How long until higher yields start putting pressure on equities?
Persons: Trump, Ned Davis, Veneta, Dimitrova, Goldman Sachs, BNTX Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research
Investors are expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get a boost from the inclusion of the biggest artificial intelligence beneficiary of the last year. The 30-stock Dow has underperformed this year and last after failing to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom that helped bolster the comparatively tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. By comparison, the S & P 500 has surged 20% in 2024, after climbing 24% last year. Nvidia shares have gained 179% this year, and last advanced 1.8% in midday trading. Meanwhile, Intel shares have tumbled more than 55% in 2024; on Monday, it was last off by another 3.5%.
Persons: Dow Jones, CFRA Research's Angelo Zino, Dow, Nvidia doesn't, Ned Davis, Zino, bullish Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Blackwell, Intel, Amazon, Walgreens, Alliance, Walgreens Boots Alliance
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.
Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance
In today's big story, Google Search is going to look a whole lot different thanks to generative AI . According to Rhiannon Bell, the vice president of user experience for Google Search, it's a "pretty dramatic shift from where we were before." AdvertisementAnd yes, in case you were wondering if it was coming, Google is going to start putting ads in its AI Search results — but only when Google deems them relevant. Google's new AI-organized search results GoogleSearch's revamp addresses a big concern for the rest of the internet. One survey conducted earlier this year found 60% of people who used Google's AI search found it more effective than non-AI powered Search.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Tyler Le, Hugh Langley, Tech's, Hugh, Rhiannon Bell, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Ned Davis, Kalshi, Andy Jassy F, Carter Smith, Chelsea Jia Feng, Andy Jassy, Marc Andreessen, he's, Alyssa Powell, dockworkers, hasn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Costco, Tech, Google, Getty, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFTC, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Amazon, LinkedIn, YouTube, EU . US Department of Labor Locations: China, San Francisco, EU, New York, London
This latest bull run has been strong, even by historical standards. The broad market index has also reached a record above 5,700 — with some on the Street expecting it to top 6,000 before year-end. The bull market will be two later this month. .SPX mountain 2022-09-30 SPX since Q4 2022 The first: "The disinflation that has defined the cyclical bull needs to remain in place," said Clissold. The second element needed for the bull run to carry on is a successful soft landing.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Fed, JPMorgan
The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.
Persons: That's, , Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe
The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes. "With the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," he said. AdvertisementWith the S&P 500 in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak. The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks.
Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, , Hayes Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR
Investors haven't become super pessimistic on stocks since the recent volatility bout began. Specifically, the firm's Crowd Sentiment Poll — a gauge for intermediate market sentiment — shows excessive optimism among investors after dipping to neutral last month. NDR's nearer-term daily trading composite, meanwhile, points to more neutral sentiment. Wall Street is also anxiously looking ahead to the U.S. presidential election in November. So bottom line: It may take another bout of selling to shake out the weak bullish investors and restart the long-term trend.
Persons: Ned Davis, London Stockton, Goldman Sachs downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Richard Ramsden Organizations: Ned Davis Research, London, Reserve, U.S Locations: NDR's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bullish drivers of the market haven't changed, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed and his market outlook.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
The doc includes more than 500 submissions from people who identified themselves as Microsoft employees in the US. The move came in response to a growing number of its workers feeling underpaid compared to Microsoft's tech peers like Amazon . AdvertisementAs a reminder, this pay data is based on Microsoft employees' self-reporting, so it's not a complete picture. However, the pay gap between Microsoft AI and the rest of the company is undeniable. These are the 100 most-used AI apps, according to a top VC.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Ashley Stewart, Ashley, Satya Nadella, Drew Angerer, Mustafa Suleyman, it's, they're, Tyler Le, Jerome, Jerome Powell's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon's, Dimon, Ned Davis, Justin Sullivan, Andreessen Horowitz, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jack, Jerome Powell, Sabrina Carpenter, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Microsoft Microsoft, Getty, Bloomberg Creative, JPMorgan, Treasury, Ned Davis Research, Big Tech, RBC Capital Markets, Consumer, Engineers, BI Locations: Washington, New York, London
Turn to these dividend growers as the Fed cuts rates
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
As the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it makes sense that investors might turn to dividend stocks. In slow tightening cycles, fast dividend growers have outperformed slow growers and high yielders, the firm found in its analysis. The fastest growers are defined as the top 25% of the S & P 500 payers by trailing one-year dividend growth, while the slowest are the bottom 25%. We looked within the top 25% of S & P 500 dividend stocks by trailing one-year dividend growth. They also have a dividend yield of more than 2% and an upside of 10% or more to the average price target.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold, Prologis, SLB Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, Ned, CNBC, CNBC Pro, Wall, Resorts, Equinix Locations: Real, Aker
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
With ongoing affordability challenges exacerbated by high interest rates and inflated home values, housing is a major concern for Americans across the political spectrum. "When I talk to Americans, one of the biggest concerns I hear is, 'Why are housing costs so high?' In the past, Vance has blamed the housing affordability crisis largely on high interest rates. Many economists disagree with Vance's argument about the source of the housing affordability crisis and his solution to it. They've also blamed the current administration for relatively high interest rates, which are determined by the independent Federal Reserve and designed to control inflation.
Persons: , JD Vance, Vance, Sean Hannity, Kamala Harris, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather, hasn't, Ned Davis, There's, Donald Trump's, Biden, Harris, They've Organizations: Service, Fox News, Republican, Business, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, Trump Locations: Ukraine
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, what to expect from OpenAI's newest AI model that's in the works. GPT-5, the newest model upgrade for OpenAI's chatbot, is coming soon . AdvertisementOpenAI has a lot riding on its newest model, including its ability to get customers to cough up more cash. That's not ideal for a company that's preparing to take on one of the biggest juggernauts in tech: Google's Search.
Persons: , Z's, Let's, Nordin Catic, OpenAI, Darius Rafieyan, Darius, ChatGPT, Justin Sullivan, Chelsea Jia Feng, it's, Sam Altman, Ned Davis, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, David Zalubowski, Chiang Ying, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Alexa von Tobel, Tyler Le, Mark Zuckerberg's, It's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, OpenAI, Ned Davis Research, Blackstone, Harvard, Microsoft, Starbucks, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Fed, Meta, Boeing, Kraft Locations: undergrad, New York, China, London
The cyclical bull rally starting in October 2022 is expected to last into 2025, according to Ned Davis Research. The firm highlights a chart that shows the historical trends of cyclical bull market rallies, and when they typically end. The research firm published a note last week that included a chart illustrating prior cyclical bull rallies within a secular bull market, as is the current rally. To monitor the current health of the bull rally in stocks, the research firm suggests investors closely monitor earnings results. Ultimately, the recent correction "should give way to another leg higher in the continuing bull market," Ned Davis Research concluded.
Persons: Ned Davis, , Ned Davis Research, bode Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Nasdaq
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket rotation will be bullish over the short-term, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss if the market rotation has staying power.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
He favors small-cap, mid-cap, and quality stocks over the Big Tech mega-caps leading the market rally for three reasons. One is that the earnings winning streak that Magnificent Seven stocks have enjoyed is simply difficult to keep going. In the first quarter of this year, Magnificent Seven earnings grew by 50% annualized year-over-year, according to Ned Davis Research. Wall Street estimates Magnificent Seven earnings will grow by 28% year-over-year in Q2. When it comes to innovating and adapting, small and mid-cap companies' size gives them a relative advantage.
Persons: , Larry Kochard, Ned Davis, Kochard, reinvesting, It's, it's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Capital Management, Business, Ned Davis Research, Wall, The, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, European Union, Quality
The most bullish S&P 500 price target is 6,000 from Evercore ISI, which represents a gain of about 7%. While the average year-end S&P 500 price target is 5,429, according to data from Bloomberg, the median year-end price target is 5,600. Yardeni Research: S&P 500 price target of 5,800Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,800 from 5,400 this week. Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 price target of 5,600Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin boosted his S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,200 last month. UBS: S&P 500 price target of 5,600UBS raised its S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,400 in May, and that's after the bank raised its price target in February.
Persons: , Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, they're, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Jonathan Golub Organizations: Wall, ISI, Service, Bloomberg, CNBC, Security, Yardeni, Research, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, UBS, Chicago, & $ Locations: bearish
Second quarter earnings season could trigger the most painful stock correction since 2022, according to NDR. AdvertisementHere's what investors should look out for during the second quarter earnings season, according to NDR. Therefore, it's not a matter of whether analysts will cut their second-half earnings growth estimates but rather by how much they will cut. "Management teams have guided the Q2 year/year growth rate down to 5.7% from 7.0% at the end of May. "Analysts are banking the Mag 7 to continue to drive earnings growth, but the rest of the market to participate more.
Persons: , Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: NDR, Service, Ned Davis Research, Management, Nvidia, Amazon
London CNN —President Joe Biden had a shaky performance in last night’s presidential debate, triggering panic in the Democrat camp. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, repeated multiple falsehoods while doubling down on his record of cutting taxes and hiking tariffs during his first presidential term. If repeated in a second Trump term, many economists fear that kind of agenda could stoke inflation at a critical moment and add to America’s rapidly growing debt mountain. That could pull the typical year-end election relief rally forward, said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. The US dollar has also been reactive — it edged higher as initial CNN polling found that Trump was viewed as the winner of the debate.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, shrugged, , Keith Lerner, Barack Obama, Trump, Lerner, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, , Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, Jonas Goltermann, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, France’s, CDK, Ramishah Maruf, Eva Rothenberg, aren’t, they’ve, Scott Campbell, CNN they’ve, Jordan Valinsky, Tim Wentworth Organizations: London CNN, Democrat, Trump, , Biden, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Investors, Capital Economics, CNN, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, CAC, CDK, Auto, Capital City Buick GMC, Bloomberg, Walgreens Locations: France, , North America, United States, Canada, Berlin , Vermont, Eastern Europe, America
The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. Yes, but: Market volatility in an election year tends to pick up in October and there are many months left in this cycle with potential surprises to come. “An autumn pullback fits well time wise with potential downside earnings revisions, make-or-break decision time for the Fed, and election uncertainty. The first round of the French election will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.
Persons: Goldman Sachs —, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, they’re, It’s, Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, , , Mark Hackett, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Reid, There’s, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, Chris Isidore ., they’ve, Samantha Murphy Kelly, ChatGPT —, Siri —, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, hasn’t, Organizations: London CNN — Traders, Investors, White, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche, Fed, United, Labour Party, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, Alaska Airlines, Alaska —, Southwest —, Southwest, Railway Labor, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, Wall, IDC Locations: United States, France, , Alaska, China
Traders are gearing up for an increase in volatility around the November elections in the United States, according to one market indicator. Stacey Gilbert, CIO of Glenmede Investment Management, said that the futures market for the Cboe Volatility Index is showing a distortion around the November election. Vix futures are basically a way to bet on or hedge against where the index will be trading at the time of expiration. The expectation for volatility around this election is pretty sizable," Gilbert said. "It would stand to reason that the Vix, or volatility in general, would increase around then," he added.
Persons: Stacey Gilbert, Gilbert, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, it's, Clissold Organizations: Glenmede Investment Management, Republican, Democratic, Bank of America, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Republicans Locations: United States, U.S
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