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A strong market run through November typically bodes well for the final month of the year, according to Ned Davis Research. "One adage that has consistently tested well is, momentum leads price," chief U.S. strategist Ed Clissold wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "Big gains tend to be followed by additional gains. "The key takeaway is that positive returns have not pulled forward gains," Clissold said, adding that 1996 was the last year the S & P 500 declined in December after seeing a 20% gain through November. Ned Davis continues to recommend overweighting U.S. stocks, even though the S & P 500 has already exceeded the firm's year-end target of 5,950.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Trivariate's Adam Parker, Requisite’s Bryn Talkington and Ned Davis’ Ed ClissoldTrivariate's Adam Parker, Requisite’s Bryn Talkington and Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, the staying power of the bull market and their expectations for 2025.
Persons: Trivariate's Adam Parker, Requisite’s Bryn Talkington, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Trivariate's Adam Parker, Ed Clissold
San Francisco's Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie has begun tapping tech heavyweights and business leaders to help with his goal of overhauling the city's image. "He wants to put down roots here in San Francisco. The city can't have all its eggs in one basket and needs to expand into other business sectors as well, Lurie said. "We will go recruit companies from all sectors to come back to San Francisco," Lurie said. A fully-staffed police department and 911 dispatch office will be necessary to help bring businesses and workers back to the city, Lurie said.
Persons: Daniel Lurie, Sam Altman, Ned Segal, Lurie, Levi Strauss, I've Organizations: Francisco's Mayor, London, CNBC Locations: San Francisco, Francisco
“The Simpsons” is saying goodbye to the voice behind some of its most iconic characters. Pamela Hayden, who voiced Milhouse Van Houten and a slew of other characters, announced she is retiring from the show after 35 years. “The time has come for me to hang up my microphone, but how do I say goodbye to The Simpsons?” Hayden said in a news release. “We named him Milhouse because that was the most unfortunate name a kid could have,” Groening said in a statement. “People come up to me and they quote Milhouse lines,” Hayden said in a video FOX shared Wednesday to commemorate her roles.
Persons: Pamela Hayden, Milhouse Van Houten, ” Hayden, , ” Milhouse, Bart Simpson, Bart, Matt Groening, Richard Milhous Nixon, Milhouse, ” Groening, “ Pamela, He’s, Jimbo Jones, Rod Flanders, Ned Flanders, Lisa Simpson’s, Janey Powell, Malibu Stacy, Hayden Organizations: FOX, Locations: Springfield
AdvertisementSam Altman has been tapped to cochair the transition team for San Francisco's mayor-elect. The OpenAI cofounder and CEO is cochairing the transition team for San Francisco mayor-elect Daniel Lurie, Lurie announced Monday. According to San Francisco's campaign finance database, Altman donated $500 to current San Francisco mayor London Breed in 2018. We need to get him to embrace San Francisco." BI could not find any contributions from Altman to San Francisco mayoral candidates during this election.
Persons: Sam Altman, Daniel Lurie, Altman, Lurie, Ned Segal, OpenAI, San, Levi Strauss, Jan Koum, Jonathan Gans, Oleg Nodelman, " Altman Organizations: San Francisco's, San Francisco, Business, London Breed, Breed, Los Angeles Times Locations: Bay, San Francisco
Bobby Allison, founder of racing’s “Alabama Gang” and a NASCAR Hall of Famer, died Saturday. He was the 1983 NASCAR champion, finished second in the series title race five times, and a three-time winner of the Daytona 500. Allison was inducted into the Motorsports Hall of Fame in 1992 and into the NASCAR Hall of Fame along with Ned Jarrett, Bud Moore, Pearson and Lee Petty. “Though he is best known as one of the winningest drivers in NASCAR Cup Series history, his impact on the sport extends far beyond the record books. Allison is one of 10 drivers to have won NASCAR’s career “grand slam” that includes the Cup Series’ most iconic races: the Daytona 500, the Winston 500, the Coca-Cola 600 and the Southern 500.
Persons: Bobby Allison, Allison, Jim France, Darrell Waltrip, Mike Helton, of Famers Richard Petty, David Pearson, Jeff Gordon, “ Bobby, , , Cale Yarborough, “ Cale, ” Allison, Donnie, Red Farmer, Jimmy Mears, Neil Bonnett, Allison’s, Davey, Clifford, Bobby, Judy, Ned Jarrett, Bud Moore, Pearson, Lee Petty, “ Bobby Allison, ’ ”, Roger Penske Organizations: Alabama, NASCAR, of Famer, NASCAR’s, Meyers, Bowman Gray, France, of Famers, of Fame, Catholic, Sunshine State, Talledega Superspeedway, Busch, Michigan International Speedway, Motorsports Hall of Fame, Winston, Indy Locations: Mooresville , North Carolina, North Carolina, Miami, Alabama, Florida, Hueytown , Alabama, Talladega, ’ ” France
AdvertisementA key sticking point for the 73,479,065 Americans (and counting) who voted for President-elect Donald Trump was inflation. Inflationary promisesThe main Trump proposals viewed as inflationary are: sweeping tariffs on imports, mass deportation of immigrants, and lower taxes. Related storiesTypically, US companies simply pass the tariff costs to consumers via higher prices, and company executives are already signaling this to investors. Possible inflation falloutIf Trump delivers on all of these proposals, then a rebound in inflation is all but guaranteed, economists have said. AdvertisementIt's worth noting that the tariffs Trump enacted in his first term did not result in a significant inflation increase.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, It's, Taylor Rogers —, Philip Daniele, Timothy Boyle, Wendy Edelberg, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Ned Davis, Veneta Dimitrova, Dimitrova Organizations: Trump, Service, White, Biden, Republican National, Center, Columbia, Washington Post, National Association of Homebuilders, Federal Reserve Locations: China,
Treasury yields have ripped higher of late, even as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared nearly 70 basis points to 4.3% since mid-September, when the Fed cut rates by a half-point. Despite the Fed's latest action, the incoming Trump administration is likely to keep yields elevated, according to Ned Davis Research. Dimitrova noted that rising debt-to-GDP ratio has been closely linked with higher bond yields. The question for investors now is: How long until higher yields start putting pressure on equities?
Persons: Trump, Ned Davis, Veneta, Dimitrova, Goldman Sachs, BNTX Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research
According to the same polls, boomer men supported Trump over Harris 57% to 39% while boomer women chose Harris 52% to 43%. On Monday, Trump, at a battleground on the eve of Election Day, invited Lara Trump and his daughter Tiffany to the stage. The Trump campaign has been pointing to partisan turnout numbers as evidence that he is building an advantage with early voting. Since 1980, nearly every presidential election has seen a split, which in recent decades has shown Democrats winning with women voters. This was the case in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led women by double digits, and in 2020, when President Joe Biden won women voters as well.
Persons: Kamala Harris girding, Liz Cheney, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Ann Selzer, “ Harris, , Partners Scarlett Maguire, , Joe Rogan, Lex Fridman, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, you’re, Lara Trump, Danica Patrick, Kristi Noem, Morgan Ortagus, Tiffany, Megyn Kelly, Kelly, Nikki Haley, ” Trump, Haley haven't, Cheney, — Trump, Tom Bonier, Covid, Wade, don’t, Lala Johnson, Ned McCarthy, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris ’ Organizations: Democratic, Republican, J, Des Moines Register, Democrat, J.L, Boys, MIT, NBC, Trump, Harris, NBC News, Republican National Committee, NASCAR, South Dakota Gov, Pittsburgh, Republicans —, Arizona voters Locations: Trump, Iowa, Harris, Arizona, Roe
Investors are expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get a boost from the inclusion of the biggest artificial intelligence beneficiary of the last year. The 30-stock Dow has underperformed this year and last after failing to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom that helped bolster the comparatively tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. By comparison, the S & P 500 has surged 20% in 2024, after climbing 24% last year. Nvidia shares have gained 179% this year, and last advanced 1.8% in midday trading. Meanwhile, Intel shares have tumbled more than 55% in 2024; on Monday, it was last off by another 3.5%.
Persons: Dow Jones, CFRA Research's Angelo Zino, Dow, Nvidia doesn't, Ned Davis, Zino, bullish Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Blackwell, Intel, Amazon, Walgreens, Alliance, Walgreens Boots Alliance
Elon Musk's ownership has shifted X's political stance, affecting Democratic ad spending. X switched political ads back on last year as it looked to recoup lost revenue after a brand exodus. AdvertisementWhile some Democratic political advertisers — including Kamala Harris' presidential campaign — have stopped spending on X altogether, a small number are holding firm. It ceased taking political advertising in 2019 under former CEO Jack Dorsey; Musk reversed that decision last year. The research firm EMARKETER predicted that political ad spending in the US will top $12 billion this year.
Persons: X, , Kamala Harris, Elon Musk, revved, hasn't, Colin Allred, Sen, Ted Cruz, Jon Tester, Tim Sheehy, — Jon Tester, it's, Harris, Linda Yaccarino, Tyler Goldberg, Mike Nellis, Nellis, I've, Matthew Madrazo, Jonathan Phelps, X's, Ned Segal, Jack Dorsey, Musk, Elon, Mark Jablonowski, Andy Kiersz Organizations: Elon, Democratic, Service, Twitter, Trump, Texas Senate, Montana, Solutions, Republican, Fox News, Democrats, Nellis, Media, X, Financial Times, Meta, Google Locations: Texas, Montana, Washington ,
For years, Republican activists have huddled in video meetings to talk about remaking democracy and plan for the election. They successfully lobbied for new state election laws and procedures, diving deep into the intricacies of election regulations. Earlier this year, Ms. Mitchell said she was called by God to shift her attention to the possibility that noncitizens were voting. They were involved in recent attempts to make it easier for State Election Board members to hold up certification while they conduct inquiries into the vote. Ms. Mitchell has talked about a federal elections overhaul should Republicans win the White House and Congress.
Persons: Donald J, Cleta Mitchell, Rebecca Dunn, Richard Uihlein, , Mark Meadows, Russell T, Trump, Mitchell, Trump’s, John Eastman, I’ve, Donald Trump, badgered, illegals ”, , ” Ms, , ” Patrice Johnson, Mike Johnson, Chip Roy, Ron Armstrong, Richard Silvestri, Matthew Seifried, Seifried, Claire Zunk, Janine Iyer, Elizabeth Ayoub, “ Janine, Johnson, Ned Jones, John Richards Jr, don’t, Jim Womack, Mr, Jones, I’m, we’ve Organizations: Republican, The New York Times, Trump, Network, Republican National Committee, Bradley Impact Foundation, Conservative Partnership Institute, Trump White House, Citizens, Gateway Pundit, Federalist, Republicans, United States, Tea Party, Michigan, Mr, Republican Party, Michigan Fair, North, United Sovereign Americans, American Legislative Exchange Council, White House Locations: America, In Nevada, Georgia, Texas, United, Michigan, Ron Armstrong , Michigan, chimed, Trump, Georgia , Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
Take Los Angeles, where about three-quarters of residential-zoned land in 2021 was zoned exclusively for developing single-family housing. This country needs to build more homes, but there's no reason all those new homes need to look the same. Tokyo has homes in all shapes and sizes: detached single-family homes, attached row houses, small apartment buildings, midsize apartment buildings, and colossal residential high-rises. Allow apartment buildings with one staircase: Making it legal to build more apartment buildings with only one staircase would substantially reduce construction costs and allow for apartment buildings to be built on smaller lots. People who really like single-family homes should still have access to single-family homes.
Persons: , we'll, homebuilders, Stephen Smith Organizations: sameness, Center for, The New York Times Locations: United States, Levittown , New York, Los Angeles, Connecticut, Levittown, Tokyo, American, Japan, North America
Parag Agrawal updated his LinkedIn page with his AI startup's name for the first time: Parallel Web Systems. The ex-Twitter CEO raised about $30 million for the startup, The Information reported in January. AdvertisementThe former CEO of Twitter has moved his AI startup out of stealth mode with a previously unknown name: Parallel Web Systems. Agrawal raised about $30 million for the startup, The Information reported in January when the startup's name was still unknown. From Twitter to AI startupAgrawal was the CEO of Twitter from November 2021 to October 2022, when Elon Musk fired him following his acquisition of the platform.
Persons: Parag Agrawal, Parallel's, , Agrawal, Elon Musk, Kurt Wagner's, Wagner, Musk, Ned Segal, Vijaya Gadde, Sean Edgett Organizations: Systems, AIs, Service, Twitter, Khosla Ventures, Index Ventures, LinkedIn, Company, Shapley Inc, Business Locations: Palo Alto , California, San Francisco
Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.
Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance
In today's big story, Google Search is going to look a whole lot different thanks to generative AI . According to Rhiannon Bell, the vice president of user experience for Google Search, it's a "pretty dramatic shift from where we were before." AdvertisementAnd yes, in case you were wondering if it was coming, Google is going to start putting ads in its AI Search results — but only when Google deems them relevant. Google's new AI-organized search results GoogleSearch's revamp addresses a big concern for the rest of the internet. One survey conducted earlier this year found 60% of people who used Google's AI search found it more effective than non-AI powered Search.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Tyler Le, Hugh Langley, Tech's, Hugh, Rhiannon Bell, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Ned Davis, Kalshi, Andy Jassy F, Carter Smith, Chelsea Jia Feng, Andy Jassy, Marc Andreessen, he's, Alyssa Powell, dockworkers, hasn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Costco, Tech, Google, Getty, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFTC, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Amazon, LinkedIn, YouTube, EU . US Department of Labor Locations: China, San Francisco, EU, New York, London
The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.
Persons: That's, , Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe
This latest bull run has been strong, even by historical standards. The broad market index has also reached a record above 5,700 — with some on the Street expecting it to top 6,000 before year-end. The bull market will be two later this month. .SPX mountain 2022-09-30 SPX since Q4 2022 The first: "The disinflation that has defined the cyclical bull needs to remain in place," said Clissold. The second element needed for the bull run to carry on is a successful soft landing.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Fed, JPMorgan
The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes. "With the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," he said. AdvertisementWith the S&P 500 in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak. The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks.
Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, , Hayes Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold and Hightower’s Stephanie LinkWharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold and Hightower’s Stephanie Link, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, the Fed and inflation.
Persons: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Stephanie Link, Jeremy Siegel
Investors haven't become super pessimistic on stocks since the recent volatility bout began. Specifically, the firm's Crowd Sentiment Poll — a gauge for intermediate market sentiment — shows excessive optimism among investors after dipping to neutral last month. NDR's nearer-term daily trading composite, meanwhile, points to more neutral sentiment. Wall Street is also anxiously looking ahead to the U.S. presidential election in November. So bottom line: It may take another bout of selling to shake out the weak bullish investors and restart the long-term trend.
Persons: Ned Davis, London Stockton, Goldman Sachs downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Richard Ramsden Organizations: Ned Davis Research, London, Reserve, U.S Locations: NDR's
Van Ostern jumped into the race first, quickly earning Kuster’s endorsement. Tensions have heightened in the closing weeks of the race, with money flowing in and one high-profile Van Ostern backer — former Gov. Focus on reproductive rightsGoodlander and Van Ostern have particularly sharpened their attacks against each other over reproductive rights. In her rebuttal, Goodlander told him, “Colin, you were the spokesman for an anti-choice congressman. Lynch, the former governor who endorsed Van Ostern early on, opted to back Goodlander instead.
Persons: Colin van Ostern, Maggie Goodlander, Annie Kuster, Van Ostern, Amy Walter, Goodlander, Jake Sullivan, Hillary Clinton, Van, , John Lynch —, — Kathy Sullivan, Ned Helms —, Joe Foster, Sylvia Larsen, ” Van Ostern, he’s, clerking, Stephen Breyer, Roe, Wade, “ I’ve, , ” Goodlander, Arizona GOP Sen, John McCain, Justin Amash, Donald Trump, Dan Driscoll, Goodlander’s, “ Colin, Jim Turner, it’s, we’re, Lynch, Colin, ” Lynch, Organizations: Congressional District, Former New Hampshire, Department of Justice, Democratic, White House, Hampshire, Democratic Party, NBC News, New, NBC, Supreme, Justice Department, WMUR, Republicans, Arizona GOP, Texas Democratic, Congress, Vote Locations: New Hampshire’s, Washington, New Hampshire, Arizona
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bullish drivers of the market haven't changed, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed and his market outlook.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
The doc includes more than 500 submissions from people who identified themselves as Microsoft employees in the US. The move came in response to a growing number of its workers feeling underpaid compared to Microsoft's tech peers like Amazon . AdvertisementAs a reminder, this pay data is based on Microsoft employees' self-reporting, so it's not a complete picture. However, the pay gap between Microsoft AI and the rest of the company is undeniable. These are the 100 most-used AI apps, according to a top VC.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Ashley Stewart, Ashley, Satya Nadella, Drew Angerer, Mustafa Suleyman, it's, they're, Tyler Le, Jerome, Jerome Powell's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon's, Dimon, Ned Davis, Justin Sullivan, Andreessen Horowitz, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jack, Jerome Powell, Sabrina Carpenter, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Microsoft Microsoft, Getty, Bloomberg Creative, JPMorgan, Treasury, Ned Davis Research, Big Tech, RBC Capital Markets, Consumer, Engineers, BI Locations: Washington, New York, London
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