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☆ What a resurgence in Wall Street dealmaking means for Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets just had an expectations-defying month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Winning month and quarterU.S. markets rose on Monday to finish a winning month and quarter. In a filing, Cerebras reported a net loss of $127.2 million on revenue of $78.7 million for 2023. Markets predict measured response from IranIsrael has escalated fighting with Lebanese militia group Hezbollah, hitting Iran's proxy network across the Middle East.

Persons: Tesla, Jerome Powell, Powell, Cerebras, Michael Santoli Organizations: CNBC, . Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Nvidia, Systems, Nasdaq, Lebanese, Hezbollah Locations: Milan, Stellantis, Iran Israel, Iran, U.S, Beijing

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets defied expectations last month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 24, 2024 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Winning month and quarterU.S. markets rose on Monday to finish a winning month and quarter. While that may remind investors of the 2015 bubble, when the Chinese stock market doubled in value over six months, analysts think things are different this time.

Persons: Tesla, Jerome Powell, Powell, Cerebras, Stocks Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nikkei, . Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Nvidia, Systems, Nasdaq, CSI, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, China, Hong Kong, South

☆ Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is 'not on any preset course'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, ” Powell, Powell, “, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville

☆ China's $114 billion stimulus package immediately boosted its stock market. But can it last?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

AdvertisementUS financial firms' interest in China was on its last legs, but a new stimulus package has some investors excited again. The immediate impact of China's $114 billion package, which includes cutting interest rates and reducing the amount of money banks need to keep in reserve, has been big. Traders, investors, and speculators have sent China's stock market to its best month in nearly a decade , signaling that the market players think that Beijing's moves are a "bazooka." Our annual list of Wall Street rising stars is here. According to a new report from The Wall Street Journal, executives attempted to woo the AI researcher back before rescinding the offer.

Persons: —, Andres Martinez Casares, Alyssa Powell, Linette Lopez isn't, Linette, Jon Hicks, that's, David Tepper, He's, Tepper, Pan Gongsheng, BI's Filip De Mott, Wall, Natalie Ammari, Crypto, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Marc Piasecki, Tyler Le, who's, OpenAI execs, Ilya Sutskever, it's, Tara Anand, aren't, Jerome Powell, Ryan Routh, El Chapo, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Grace Lett, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Traders, Bank of China, bros, Trump, Getty, Houston Chronicle, Hearst Newspapers, Elon, Wall Street Journal, Netflix, Longshoremen's Association, National Association for Business Locations: China, New York, London, Chicago

☆ Disney lands an upgrade — plus, why we're considering adding to this laggard stock
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Don't overlook Disney : Shares of Club name Disney have quietly put together a solid September, up about 6% in the month. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Jim Cramer's, Coterra, McCormick, We'll, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Disney, Seaport Research, Seaport, Energy, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Nashville

☆ Stock market today: US indexes edge higher to records as Powell talks up strength of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Powell emphasized the economy's strength and recalibrated interest rate cut expectations. Investors are also eyeing key employment data releases this week for further market direction. All three major indexes moved higher in late trading following Powell's comments about the strength of the US economy. AdvertisementPowell's comments recalibrated interest rate cut expectations in the market. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:AdvertisementAside from Fed comments, investors are preparing for a wave of employment data this week.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Dow, Federal, National Association for Business Economics

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live on economy, policy views
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday to the National Association for Business Economists during the organization's annual conference in Nashville. The central bank chair is delivering his assessment on the economy as well as his policy views. Following the speech, Powell will speak in a moderated discussion with Ellen Zentner, global head of thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The speech comes less than two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved a half-percentage-point reduction in its key overnight borrowing rate, the first rate reduction in more than four years. Markets expect the Fed to follow up with additional cuts this year and in 2025 depending on the path of the economic data.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economists, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Nashville

The yield on the 10-year Treasury added more than 3 basis points to 3.787%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.637% after rising more than 7 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields advanced Monday as investors considered the state of the economy after the latest data release and commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Investors were assessing the state of the economy, including the path ahead for inflation and what this could mean for interest rates after the release of key data. The 12-month inflation rate came in at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Investors, PCE, Fed, PMI

☆ The stunning strength of the US economy means the soft landing may already be here, Evercore founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may have already stuck the soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThe US economy may have successfully avoided a recession and is already gliding toward a soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThose are big reasons stocks remain buoyant despite a sell-off this week as markets repriced expectations for Fed rate cuts. "Everything by and large is going right in the US economy," Altman said, noting that inflation is usually sticky as it falls from a peak. Arguably, the soft landing already has happened."

Persons: Roger Altman, Altman, —, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New, Fed, National Association for Business Economics Locations: —

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

Mortgage rates jumped up last week following the release of some hotter-than-expected inflation data. Once it looks clearer that inflation is coming down to the Fed's 2% target, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.12% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: Mary Daly, agilely, Daly, Price, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association for Business, San Francisco Fed, Index, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, ”, Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan

☆ The US economy ended 2023 with a bang
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3% per the news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Persons: —, Steve Rattner, Willett, Rattner Organizations: Service, National Association for Business Economics, Willett Advisors, Bloomberg, Labor Statistics

☆ Extreme greed is back on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s all heralded the return of extreme greed to Wall Street. The S&P 500 is up 2.6% and the Dow is 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to score their sixth-straight winning sessions. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which tracks seven indicators of market sentiment in the United States, tipped into “Extreme Greed” this week, marking a stunning turnaround from just a few months ago, when the index was in Extreme Fear territory. The idea of a soft landing (when inflation rates ease and the economy avoids recession) is likely playing a big part.

Persons: we’re, ”, Lydia Boussour, “, Christopher Waller, Bill Gates, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, ” Financial, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech Locations: New York, United States

☆ Here’s where to invest $50,000 in the new year, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 rose 24% in 2023, ending the year just shy of a record closing high. The highest S & P 500 target on the Street calls for 8.7% upside from Thursday's close. A fund with exposure to small and midcap semiconductor stocks is the SPDR S & P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) . Exposure to this space can be obtained through the SPDR S & P Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) . For these investors, Bailey likes Berkshire Hathaway , calling it a counter-cyclical sitting on a ton of cash.

Persons: Larry Adam, Raymond James, Robert Kaplan, Steven Wieting, Wieting, there's, Mike Bailey, — Bailey, Bailey, They're, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, they're, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Rowe Price Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro's, Survey, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Federal, CNBC, Bank of America, Fed, CNBC Pro, Citi Global Wealth, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, P Semiconductor, P Health Care, FBB Capital Partners, Corporate, Aggregate Bond, Berkshire, Essex Property Trust, Federal Realty Trust, Rowe Price Group Locations: Essex

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said she supported leaving the Fed's policy rate on hold last week to assess if financial conditions are sufficiently tight to bring down inflation, while pointing to recent signs the fight was not yet won. "We're going to continue to need to see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way," Logan said. "I'm going to be looking at the data and I'm going to be looking at financial conditions as we get closer to the following meeting." That view was one main reason the Fed opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range last week. "We have seen some retracement in that 10-year yield and financial conditions, and so I'll be watching to see whether that continues and what that means for the implications of policy," Logan said on Tuesday.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Franklin Paul, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

☆ Bond term premiums are now a focus for the Fed. What are they?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A bond yield can be decomposed into three elements: Expectations for what the Fed does with short-term rates; a premium for expected inflation; and a term premium. Term premiums cannot be directly observed but a number of models for them exist. A New York Fed model shows the term premium for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has climbed by more than a percentage point since the start of the third quarter. "A sudden rise in term premiums to more normal levels poses a downside risk to long-maturity Treasury prices, which could in turn affect the prices of other assets," the Fed said in its July 2017 Monetary Policy Report, a period during which term premiums were below zero. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate."

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Jerome Powell nodded, Lorie Logan, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Economic, of New, Reuters, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, of New York, York

☆ A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. "A recession is obviously going to happen at some point," said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said. Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck. Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Jack Manley, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Manley, Barry Glassman, CNBC.com, Glassman, Mark Hamrick, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asset Management, National Association for Business Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, Wealth Services, CNBC's, Bankrate Locations: Chicago

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ Treasury-bond rout eases as more Fed officials hint further rate hikes may not be necessary
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, —, Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas

☆ US stocks jump as bond yields tumble after Fed officials hint rate hikes may be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bond yields tumbled after Fed officials hinted that the end of rate hikes may be near. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks climbed Tuesday, while bond yields dropped following comments from key Fed officials that hinted at the end of rate hikes. Logan, meanwhile, noted that high bond yields may do the trick as far as cooling down the economy.

Persons: —, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Bostic Organizations: Dow, Treasury, Service, Investors, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Logan, Dallas

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

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