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☆ Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in historic miss
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Liam Reilly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Top pollster J. Ann Selzer will retire from the Des Moines Register’s famed Iowa Poll and the survey will “evolve” after it failed to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s strong support in the 2024 election, resulting in a 16-point miss. Trump ultimately swept to victory over Harris in the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%. Prior to the 2024 survey, the Iowa Poll under her stewardship had been considered by many to be the methodological gold standard. As of June 2024, election forecaster Nate Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating. In an op-ed for the Register, Selzer said that her decision to part ways with the poll predated the erroneous results.

Persons: Ann Selzer, Donald Trump’s, Selzer, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, ’, ” Kristin Roberts, ”, ” Roberts, “, John Kerry, Republican George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Nate Silver, ” Selzer, I’m, Carol Hunter, ” Hunter, Iowans Organizations: New, New York CNN, Des Moines Register’s, Iowa, Trump, Republican, Gannett Media, Des Moines Register, CNN, ”, Iowa Poll, Selzer Locations: New York, Des, Iowa, West Des Moines

☆ Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Amanda Hoover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening. Advertisement"Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over? Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says.

Persons: Nate Silver, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Polymarket, Trump, Kalshi, Shayne Coplan, Coplan, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Robinhood, There's, Xavier Sottile, Bettors, Sottile, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, he'll, John F, Kennedy, Koleman Strumpf, Strumpf, Broughel, James Broughel, Israel —, — Polymarket, who've Organizations: Trump, CNBC, MIT, Victoria University, Wake Forest University, RFK Jr, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, New York Times Locations: New Zealand, Kalshi, Ukraine, Iran

☆ The best writing online about why Trump won, why Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Commentators and academics have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destinyHow Mr. Trump won is also the story of how Ms. Harris lost. Laurel Duggan, UnHerdWhy white women stuck with TrumpAdvertisementThe abortion issue had seemingly little impact on Republicans's performance with white women in this cycle. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy blog post from late October with the new title "24 reasons that Trump won." Nate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Frank Bruni, Let's, Harris, aren't, Hannibal Lecter, Trump, Allysia Finley, Taylor Swift, Taylor, Swift, they'd, I'd, Sarah Baxter, Mueller, Francis Fukuyama, Ankush Khardori, Politico Trump, Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, MAGA, Biden's, John Burn, Alexandra Ulmer, Gram Slattery, Elon Musk, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, Axios, David Weigel, Annie Lowrey, Biden, Gerard Baker, Hitler, Laurel Duggan, UnHerd, Sen, Chuck Schumer, Todd Landman, Evan Vucci Steve Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Tina Fordham, Trump's, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Tom Williams, Eric Cortellessa, Musk, Eric Cortellessa's Organizations: Service, Democratic, The New York Times Democrats, Trump, Street, Democrats Get, demeaned, Democrats, Financial, Republican, Biden, The New York Times, Trump Won, Republican Party, Britain's, Reuters Trump, White, Republicans —, Trump Republicans, Semafor, The Atlantic Voters, The, Democrat, Republicans, University of Nottingham, AP, Johns Hopkins University, Silver Locations: Trump, Ukraine, White, London, Florida, South Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

☆ The best writing we're finding around the web on why Trump won, Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Experts have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. AdvertisementThere's been an avalanche of analysis following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election on Wednesday, as experts sought to explain how the former president won a second term. They've offered a variety of reasons, ranging from a populist revolt against the elites to Vice President Kamala Harris' shortcomings as the Democratic candidate. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy post from late October titled "24 reasons that Trump won." AdvertisementNate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Donald Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Trump, Tina Fordham, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, Harris, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Eric Corellessa, Musk Organizations: Service, Democratic, Johns Hopkins University, The New York Times, Silver, Trump, America, AP Locations: Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

Ms. Harris starts out with 226 likely electoral votes compared with 219 for Mr. Trump, with 93 votes up for grabs. Scenario 6 Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Scenario 7 … or North Carolina. Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have been campaigning hard and often there, and Democrats hope that the favorable governor’s race could help them. Scenario 5 … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … Scenario 6 … or Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign is taking a similar approach, focusing on white college-educated women, who currently favor Ms. Harris by 29 points.

Persons: Brandon Bell, Harris, immovably, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Trump’s, Harris –, Trump’s resiliency, Harris’s, William Frey, Michael Dukakis, Josh Shapiro, JD Vance, Mr, Bill McInturff, there’s, –, Joe Rogan’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Trump, Electoral, Democrats, Republicans, Democratic, Mr, Sun, Electoral College, NBC, Black, Brookings Institution, Michigan, …, Republican, Biden Locations: Virginia, Minnesota, Georgia, Arizona , Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wis, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Ariz ., Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin . Pennsylvania, …, … Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania , Michigan

☆ Nate Silver: Don't trust the Trump swing in 2024 presidential election polls, betting markets data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Silver told Fortt that his current model shows the odds favoring Trump, who holds a 55% to 45% win probability advantage over Harris. Most people no longer even have the landline phones which past election cycle polling history relied on. Why the betting markets may be all 'vibe and chatter'The betting markets show a much bigger edge for Trump, with major wagers placed on Polymarket, Robinhood jumping into the action, and presidential election contracts surging in popularity. Critics have raised concerns that the election betting markets are potentially being manipulated. But Silver, who is a consultant to one of the leading prediction markets, Polymarket, says he wouldn't pay much attention to the betting markets data right now, as they simply may not be very accurate at this moment in the election cycle.

Persons: Nate Silver, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Silver, Trump, CNBC's, Jon Fortt, Fortt, Harris, Ken Griffin, Stanley Drunkenmiller, Critics Organizations: New York Times, CNBC Technology, CNBC, Trump, Trump Media Locations: New York City

☆ Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The big storyPresidential betsChris duMond; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIWe're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets. Kalshi's legal victory in October over the CFTC to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe betting market's biggest tests might come after the election. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race. AdvertisementShould Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis.

Persons: —, Chris duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Matthew Fox, Donald Trump, Polymarket, iStock, Rebecca Zisser, Nate Silver, Tesla, Zuckerberg, Citadel's, Justin Lubell, Lubell, Steve Schwarzman, Ken Griffin, Trump, Tyler Le, Harris, Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, CFTC, Trump, TikTok, Meta Connect, Meta, Bank of America, Blackstone, Republican, Amazon, AWS, Five Apple Intelligence, Google, The Washington Post, Street, Microsoft, Starbucks Locations: French, New York, London

☆ What's behind the latest odds in 2024 presidential election: Nate Silver
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat's behind the latest odds in 2024 presidential election: Nate SilverNate Silver lays out all the reasons he thinks Donald Trump is more likely than Kamala Harris to win the election in an interview with CNBC's Jon Fortt at Tuesday's CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit in New York City.

Persons: Nate Silver Nate Silver, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, CNBC's Jon Fortt Organizations: CNBC Technology Locations: New York City

You’ve probably heard a lot about the gender gap in presidential politics by now. And this most of all: In modern presidential politics, the gender gap has never been wider, but it gets particularly large when we break out gender by educational attainment. KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump +40 Dem. KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump +40 Dem. The story of this election could well be the gender gap between those Americans who went to college and those who didn’t.

Persons: You’ve, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton’s, —, Trump’s, JD Vance, ”, Vance, Biden, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Joe Rogan’s, Joe Rogan, Brené Brown, Wade, Joe Biden’s, Amanda Iovino, Glenn Youngkin’s Organizations: Trump, Harris, women, Pew, Mr, Pew Research, Facebook, Democratic, Pew Research Center, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump, KerrY Bush Obama McCain Obama Romney Clinton Trump Biden Trump Harris Trump, ., Election, Republicans, Republican Party, Democratic Party, America, Lake Research Partners, Democratic National Committee, WPA Intelligence, Republican, Republican National Convention, Democratic National Convention, YouTube Locations: American, New York, Roe

Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Alaska Fla. Other Dem. Hawaii Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Other Rep. ads Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. Alaska Fla. Hawaii Ad views per household For presidential and non-presidential TV ads, Aug. 1 to Oct. 25 Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem. TV ad views Ads for Harris Ads for Trump Other Dem.

Persons: Harris, Idaho Conn, Mo ., Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, outspending Mr, Trump, ”, Lynn Vavreck, Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake, Ted Cruz, Colin Allred, ’, Erika Franklin Fowler, ” Fowler, FiveThirtyEight, Vavreck, John Sides, Christopher Warshaw, David Broockman, Ms, Willie Horton, George H.W, Bush, Hillary Clinton Organizations: Won, Harris Ads, Trump Other, ., Ind, Delaware ., W.Va, Trump Alaska Fla, AdImpact, Comscore, Democratic, Republican, Google, Wesleyan Media, Democrat, Democrat Independent, Neb . Ohio Texas Ariz, Democrats ’, Senate, Wesleyan University, Democrat Republican, Pa, Colo ., Colo, Iowa, Health, Harris Trump Immigration, Security, ’, Republicans, Mr Locations: Maine, . Vt, Minn, N.Y, Conn, Mich, Wis . Iowa Ohio, . Pa, R.I . Ill, Del, Mo, Ky . Va . Md, N.C, Tenn, Ark, New Jersey, Delaware, S.C . Miss ., La, Fla, Georgia, Trump . Montana, Mont, N.D, Ore . Idaho, Neb, Nev . Utah Colo, Calif, Kan, Ariz . Texas Alaska Hawaii Montana, N.H . Vt, Ore, Idaho, S.D, Wis, Wyo, R.I . Iowa Ohio, Delaware . Ind, Ill . Utah Colo, Mo . Kan . Va . Ky . Md, N.M, Okla . Tenn, . Ala, Texas, Trump . Hawaii, Mass, S.D . Mich, Wyo . Iowa Ohio, Nev . Ill, Ind . Utah Colo, Mo . Kan, Texas La, Alaska Fla, Hawaii, Ala, Ariz . Texas Alaska Hawaii, Trump’s, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, — Montana , Ohio, Pa . Wis . Ohio, . Texas, Nev, Neb . Ohio, Pa, Arizona, Alaska, Iowa, Va, Berkeley, Siena

☆ We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The presidential race remains razor close, with control of the White House at a coin-flip. AdvertisementIn just over two weeks, Election Day 2024 will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that, for the moment, remains far too close to call. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an extremely slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. Harris trolled Trump on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, iecuUVyJ5e, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Harris, Mark Robinson, Nate Silver's, Harris trolled Trump, Trump, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, She's, Mark Cuban, Liz Cheney, Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Clinton, Bon Jovi, He's, It's, Melania Trump, night's Al Smith, Mike Pence, cohosts, Nikki Haley, Elon Musk, Musk, Spencer Platt, Mary, there's, There's, Biden, Trump's, Warren Buffett's Organizations: Service, White, Labor, RCP, Trump, Gov, The New York Times, Democrats, GOP, Capitol, Fox, Tesla, PAC, Getty, Pennsylvania, North Carolina —, Democratic, Electoral, Nebraska, Nebraska Republicans Locations: North Carolina, Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Siena, Georgia, Des Moines , Iowa, Philadelphia, New York, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Maine , Nebraska, Omaha, Minnesota , New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arizona

“The polls — public and private — are closer in this election than any I have ever seen,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a former aide to Barack Obama. Republican pollster Frank Luntz summed up the election with a single gif: A coin flip. The Trump era brought a return of uncertainty after most pollsters and prognosticators missed his 2016 victory, and 2024 is the narrowest polling election of all three of his runs. In 2020, the data correctly predicted Joe Biden’s victory, but Trump came much closer than many expected. “This race is remarkable for its closeness but also the insane stability of polls here in the closing weeks,” said Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Persons: James Carville, ”, “, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Dan Pfeiffer, Barack Obama, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, Tim Malloy, ” “ It’s, ” Nate Silver, Republican pollster Frank Luntz, Matt Gorman, “ It’s, Bush, Gore, Gorman, “ There’s, Hope, decamping, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama’s, John McCain, Trump, prognosticators, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden’s, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, ” Murray, Obama, underestimating Harris, gaffes, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, Harris, Carville Organizations: Democratic, NBC, Republican, Quinnipiac University, Supreme, Trump, Monmouth University, Electoral College Locations: Manhattan, Florida, Erie County, Pennsylvania

☆ Opinion | The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Patrick Ruffini | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

Opinion Guest Essay The 21 Slivers of America That Could Decide the Election Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesIn almost every presidential battleground state, polling suggests something close to a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. For Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, each could be a crucial building block in a winning swing-state coalition. In 2016, with Mr. Trump in the race, these areas began to march to national trends: Rural areas trended Republican, while Milwaukee’s well-off, close-in suburbs zoomed left. Still, loyalties remain potent in Wisconsin, from Democratic-leaning, ancestrally Scandinavian voters in the state’s rural west to middle-class suburban Republicans outside Milwaukee. Mr. Trump lost Nash County by just 0.2 points in 2020 and Wilson County by three points.

Persons: Sebastian Siadecki, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump ., Harris, Trump, Nate Silver’s, Joe Biden, Badger State . Arizona Battlegrounds, Mark Kelly, Biden, Trump’s, Patrick Ruffini Organizations: The New York Times, Pennsylvania, Keystone, Philadelphia, Democratic, Milwaukee —, Washington, Mr, Republican, Republicans, Milwaukee, Badger State, Senate, Northampton, “ Party of, Populist Coalition Locations: America, Pennsylvania, Appalachia, Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s, . Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee, Badger, Badger State . Arizona, Arizona, Phoenix, Florida and Texas, . North Carolina, North Carolina, Southern, Nash, Rocky, Wilson, Wilson County, Nash County, Northampton, Erie, Bethlehem, Georgia, Brown County, Green Bay, Outagamie County, Appleton, Winnebago County, Oshkosh, Maricopa County

☆ The JD Vance and Tim Walz debate is likely the last big night of the 2024 campaign. Here's what to expect.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-28 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Tim Walz of Minnesota are set to meet for the only scheduled vice-presidential debate on Tuesday, a face-off that could mark the final major moment of the campaign. Harris' national polling has ticked up since what was viewed as her convincing debate victory. This will be the first time either Brennan or O'Donnell have moderated a vice-presidential debate. Born into poverty, Vance attended the flagship school in his home state, Ohio State University, before obtaining a law degree from Yale. Walz has led a progressive rewrite of the state tax code over the objection of business interests in the state.

Persons: Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Tim Walz, Vance, Walz, —, Sen, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, he'll, Peter Loge, it's, Joe Biden, Trump, Nate Silver, Margaret Brennan, Norah O'Donnell, Brennan, O'Donnell, Scott Olson, Bradley Tusk, Tusk, whittle, Mike DeWine, Jeff Swensen, deindustrialization, he's, Lina Khan's Organizations: Minnesota Gov, Service, Ohio, Gov, Trump, School of Media, Public Affairs, George Washington University, Ohio Republican, Democratic, CBS Broadcast Center, CBS, Paramount, CBS Evening, Democratic Party, Minnesota National Guard, Army National Guard, Ohio State University, Yale, Federal Trade Commission, Big Tech, Foundation, Social Security, Tax Foundation Locations: Ohio, Minnesota, Vance, New York City, Springfield , Ohio, Iraq

☆ Analysis: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump is the closest presidential race of the century
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

On average, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, Harris is ahead by 3 points. Instead, it is a race to 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College. Per CNN’s current race ratings, Harris starts at 225 electoral votes to Trump’s 219. A win in Nebraska’s 2nd District would likely give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes when added to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Some Nebraska Republicans, urged on by Trump, want to change the state’s method of allocating electoral votes to a winner-take-all format.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris ’, Harris, Joe Biden, –, Nate Silver, Trump, he’s, Biden, SSRS Organizations: CNN, White, Republican, Electoral, CBS News, NBC News, Democratic, CBS, NBC, ABC News, Fox News, The New York Times, Siena College, Trump, Harris, Electoral College, Congressional, Trump North, Cornhusker, Nebraska’s, Nebraska Republicans, Democrat, Nebraska, Silver State Locations: Nebraska’s, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Trump North Carolina, Maine, Omaha

☆ America sort of likes Kamala Harris – and that might just be enough
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The 2024 White House race remains too close to call, but Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum is evident when you look just a little past the horse race. Earlier this week, Harris' favorability emerged above water for the first time since shortly after President Joe Biden took office. Soltis Anderson discussed a poll that the interest group commissioned, which found Harris has expanded Biden's once-meager lead over women voters aged 50 and over. Unlike Clinton, Walsh pointed out Harris hasn't spent decades in the spotlight and isn't faced with assuaging voters' fears of a potential political dynasty. Harris' favorability was up slightly in both Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, favorability, Joe Biden, She's, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Soltis Anderson, Debbie Walsh, Tim Malloy, Likability, Barack Obama's, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump's, Nikki Haley, Gabe Fleisher, reexamined, Trump, Nate Silver's, Walsh, There's, Clinton, Harris hasn't, isn't, Clinton's favorability, Obama's, Mark Robinson, Robinson, Sen, JD Vance, he's, Malloy Organizations: Service, AARP, Business, Center for American Women, Politics, Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic, Research, Pew Research, State, Rutgers University, Gov, CNN, Republicans, Trump Tower, Trump Locations: North Carolina, Nazi, Nebraska, FiveThirtyEight's, Trump, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

☆ Why a scandal consuming a Trump protégé could harm the ex-president in North Carolina
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

And Democrats have several times thought North Carolina was ripe to pick off in recent elections — only for it to stubbornly stay red. But his new problems quickly pushed North Carolina even further to the forefront of the presidential race. How Trump can mitigate the damageThe KFile investigation about Robinson landed the Trump campaign with a suddenly breaking crisis. Mark Robinson walks past former President Donald Trump after being introduced at a Trump campaign event in Asheboro, North Carolina, on August 21, 2024. Those 16 electoral votes would open hugely significant possibilities for Harris, but Democrats have seen their hopes dashed in North Carolina before.

Persons: Donald Trump, Mark Robinson, Robinson, MAGA, CNN’s KFile, “ Martin Luther King, Kamala Harris ’, Trump’s, Harris, Trump, — Robinson, Josh Stein, David Plouffe, ”, Barack Obama, —, Joe Biden, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, envelops Trump, she’s, Oprah Winfrey, Chuck Burton, Karoline Leavitt, Biden, ” Leavitt, Margaret Hoover, ” Hoover, CNN’s Erin Burnett, “ MAGA, CNN’s Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes, Harris The Harris, doesn’t, Carolina’s, Roy Cooper, “ Donald Trump, ” Cooper, Obama, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Nate Silver, CNN’s Jake Tapper, ” Silver, he’ll Organizations: CNN, Republican, Gov, Trump, White, Trump GOP, Republican Party, Electoral, Democratic, North Carolina, North, Arkansas Gov, Asian Pacific, America, Black, Asheboro, Harris The, NC GOP Locations: North Carolina, Trump, Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Michigan, House, Springfield , Ohio, New York, Black, Asheville , North Carolina, Carolina, Asheboro , North Carolina, Virginia

☆ Elon Musk boosts fake Trump rally bomb threat and false claims about the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Liam Reilly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Elon Musk is using his social media platform to promote misinformation about the presidential candidates in the lead up to the November election, amplifying false claims Wednesday about a Trump rally bomb threat and immigrants eating pets in Ohio. Then on Wednesday, Musk reshared a bogus claim that a bomb had been discovered near the site of a planned Trump rally in Long Island. Musk’s own post has been earmarked with a crowd-sourced “community notes” fact-check that makes clear the claim was false. X did not respond to a CNN request for comment Wednesday on Musk’s posts. Musk is far from the only figure spreading false information on the platform, though he is easily one of its biggest voices.

Persons: New York CNN — Elon, Donald Trump, Musk, Biden, Kamala, ”, Kamala Harris, Musk’s, Trump, JD Vance, Nate Silver, Silver, Harris Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, ABC, Long Island . Police, CNN, Twitter Locations: New York, Ohio, Long Island, Springfield , Ohio, Springfield, Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania

☆ A top poll showing Trump narrowly ahead in Iowa is a warning sign for his campaign
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( John L. Dorman | Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Iowa shifted from being a swing state to one where Republicans are firmly in the driver's seat. In Iowa, the gender gap is as pronounced as it is in many swing states. AdvertisementIn the latest Iowa poll, state voters gave Harris an 11-point point edge over Trump (53% to 42%) on the issue of abortion. AdvertisementStill, the poll shows why the intense focus on the seven swing states can sometimes be detrimental. The Iowa poll found that six percent of voters still back Kennedy, a decrease from June but still a number that could cause headaches.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Trump, Barack Obama —, Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Roe, Wade, It's, That's, Win McNamee, J, Ann Selzer, Nate Silver's, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Mary Peltola, Lyndon B, Johnson, he's, Hillary Clinton Organizations: Service, Republicans, GOP, Business, Iowa, Trump, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Biden . Iowa Democrats, Biden, Des, Register, Republican, Iowa Republicans, White Locations: Iowa, Midwest, . Iowa, Illinois, Des, —, Hawkeye, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Alaska, Alaska's, Trump, Michigan , Wisconsin

☆ All the signs Trump lost the debate
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

By Wednesday morning, there were abundant signs that, frankly, Trump lost his debate against Harris. Our newest ad just dropped pic.twitter.com/DfM044iZ8s — Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) September 11, 2024Despite the reputation he forged in GOP primary debates, Trump has struggled in general election faceoffs. Here are the signs that Trump added to his debate loss total. Heading into the debate, Trump held a narrow lead on PolyMarket, a crypto-based betting market that counts election forecaster Nate Silver as one of its advisors. Amid a back and forth with Harris over debates, Trump declared that he wanted three face-offs with her.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, DfM044iZ8s — Kamala, faceoffs, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Clinton, Nate Silver, Vox, PredictIt, Rupert Murdoch, Brit Hume, prepped Harris, 7gnMmIVupt, Ms, goading Trump, David Muir, Linsey Davis, Jason Miller, Donald Trump Jr, Trump's, Kamala, Taylor Swift, Biden, Rocky, Creed Organizations: Service, Business, Democratic, Trump, White House, Futures Trading Commission, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth, Traders, Murdoch Media, Fox News, ABC, York, Street, GOP, ABC News, Boxing, UFC, Fighter Locations: York, Philadelphia

☆ The 2024 election is anybody's race at this point, says FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 2024 election is anybody's race at this point, says FiveThirtyEight's Nate SilverNate Silver, FiveThirtyEight founder and ‘On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the 2024 election, the art of risk-taking, difference between 'the river' and 'the village', and more.

Persons: Nate Silver Nate Silver

☆ Nate Silver on the 2024 race: 'It's no longer Trump's election to lose.'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Peter Kafka | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

And when Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, after Silver gave her a 71% chance of winning, he became the subject of much (misplaced) scorn. But the rest of the world wants to know who Silver thinks is going to win the 2024 election. It's no longer Trump's election to lose. And so if it's Harris 80/20 and Trump wins, or Trump 80/20 and Harris wins on election day, then that's running some career risk. With hindsight, do you make sense at a big company, or do you think you're better as a solo act?

Persons: —, Nate, Hillary Clinton, Silver, Sam Bankman, Sam Altman —, I'm, Harris, Kamala Harris, You've, it's, we've, She's, Tim Walz, she'd, Biden, It's someone's, Hilary Clinton, Trump, Clinton, It's, it's Harris, you've, … Organizations: Service, NBA, Business, Biden, Trump, Libertarian, Party, New York Times, Disney — Locations: It's

☆ Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Ezra Klein | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +81 min

You know, Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. So I don’t think they gave her a very good hand to play. It doesn’t matter who you are, it matters that you’re right and you’re able to prove it or bet on it in some way. What wasn’t in the Harris model that should have been?” “Yeah, maybe you really can meme your way to victory. And there’s something in it that I don’t think she can explain how she does it, but it makes her a fascinating leader.

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☆ Secret to Startup Success: Being an Obnoxious Risk-Taker
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Nate Silver | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Of the billionaires on the 2023 Forbes 400 list — the 400 richest people in the United States — 70% are basically self-made. In 1982, only 40% of the Forbes 400 had started their own business; the majority were simply scions of inherited wealth. The Forbes 400, however, is the extreme right tail of the curve. But you're not sniffing the Forbes 400 list, where the bidding starts at about $3 billion. I don't think VCs are deliberately picking founders they think are unreliable, although sometimes it seems like it.

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