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☆ The best writing online about why Trump won, why Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Commentators and academics have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destinyHow Mr. Trump won is also the story of how Ms. Harris lost. Laurel Duggan, UnHerdWhy white women stuck with TrumpAdvertisementThe abortion issue had seemingly little impact on Republicans's performance with white women in this cycle. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy blog post from late October with the new title "24 reasons that Trump won." Nate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Frank Bruni, Let's, Harris, aren't, Hannibal Lecter, Trump, Allysia Finley, Taylor Swift, Taylor, Swift, they'd, I'd, Sarah Baxter, Mueller, Francis Fukuyama, Ankush Khardori, Politico Trump, Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, MAGA, Biden's, John Burn, Alexandra Ulmer, Gram Slattery, Elon Musk, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, Axios, David Weigel, Annie Lowrey, Biden, Gerard Baker, Hitler, Laurel Duggan, UnHerd, Sen, Chuck Schumer, Todd Landman, Evan Vucci Steve Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Tina Fordham, Trump's, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Tom Williams, Eric Cortellessa, Musk, Eric Cortellessa's Organizations: Service, Democratic, The New York Times Democrats, Trump, Street, Democrats Get, demeaned, Democrats, Financial, Republican, Biden, The New York Times, Trump Won, Republican Party, Britain's, Reuters Trump, White, Republicans —, Trump Republicans, Semafor, The Atlantic Voters, The, Democrat, Republicans, University of Nottingham, AP, Johns Hopkins University, Silver Locations: Trump, Ukraine, White, London, Florida, South Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

☆ The best writing we're finding around the web on why Trump won, Harris lost, and what it all means
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Experts have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election. AdvertisementThere's been an avalanche of analysis following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election on Wednesday, as experts sought to explain how the former president won a second term. They've offered a variety of reasons, ranging from a populist revolt against the elites to Vice President Kamala Harris' shortcomings as the Democratic candidate. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletterSilver republished a lengthy post from late October titled "24 reasons that Trump won." AdvertisementNate Silver offered up 24 reasons why Donald Trump won.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, There's, Donald Trump's, They've, Kamala Harris, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University Hanke, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Steve Hanke Nate Cohn, Trump, Tina Fordham, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, Harris, AP Matthew Yglesias, Yglesias, overperform electorally, Dominic Sandbrook, Sandbrook, Hillary Clinton, Eric Corellessa, Musk Organizations: Service, Democratic, Johns Hopkins University, The New York Times, Silver, Trump, America, AP Locations: Washington, New York City, San Francisco, Israel, California

☆ Dozens of New York Times tech workers cross the picket line on Election Day
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Lucia Moses | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Dozens of New York Times tech workers crossed the picket line amid a tech strike. The Tech Guild is striking over remote work, pay equity, and subcontracting limits. AdvertisementDozens of New York Times tech workers have crossed the picket line since the Tech Guild went on strike Monday, sources said. AdvertisementThe Tech Guild, formed in 2021, represents Times workers like software developers and data analysts. AdvertisementThe strike has exposed some divisions among Tech Guild members — and between the guild and some Times journalists who have expressed a lack of sympathy for the tech workers.

Persons: —, Benjamin Harnett, Harnett, There's, Nate Cohn Organizations: New York Times, Tech, Service, Times, Times Guild, Tech Guild

Live Virginia forecastOur current best estimate is that the race leans toward Harris. Trump leads in the reported vote, but we think the remaining vote favors Harris. We’ll continue to adjust our estimate as more votes are reported. Read more about how it works.

Persons: Harris, Trump, We’ll, Read Locations: Virginia

☆ Ohio U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: Brown vs. Moreno
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat in a solidly Republican state, has established an image as a stalwart supporter of working-class voters. Bernie Moreno, a wealthy Colombian-born businessman, was the choice of Mr. Trump, not Ohio's G.O.P. establishment.

Persons: Sherrod Brown, Bernie Moreno, Trump Organizations: Republican Locations: Colombian

☆ Wisconsin Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The state is a key component in Ms. Harris’s clearest path to victory — wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It has the potential to be the winning candidate’s “tipping-point” state (like it was in 2020), putting him or her over the top in the Electoral College.

Organizations: Electoral College Locations: Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania

Which states will decide the election? These seven states, which account for 93 electoral college votes, are likely to decide the winner of the election. Harris needs 44 of these battleground electoral votes to win the election, assuming both candidates win all of the states where polls show them with significant leads. Trump needs 51.

Persons: Harris Organizations: Trump

☆ Pennsylvania Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

How votes compare with 2020The map below shows how votes cast in this race compare with votes cast in the 2020 presidential election in the same area. Only areas that have reported almost all of their votes are shown.

☆ North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Georgia Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Florida Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Voting has now wrapped up in all seven swing states and most others. But no swing states have been called, and the race will hinge on their results. Bomb threats roiled polling places in swing states, including Georgia, Arizona and Michigan. Though the election is by no means over, Mr. Trump is showing strength, winning states like Texas and Florida easily. Democrats will have to run the tables in the Republican states of Ohio and Montana to maintain their one-seat control of the Senate.

Persons: Lisa Blunt Rochester, Angela Alsobrooks, Donald J, Trump, Kamala Harris, Jonathan Weisman, Harris, —, Ms, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan, Jim Justice, Joe Manchin III, “ Organizations: Electoral, Mr, Republican, Senate, Republicans, Democratic National Committee, Washington , D.C Locations: Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, Montana, — Arizona , Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Mar, Washington ,

☆ Michigan Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | Chief Political Analyst | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

☆ GOP megadonors open their wallets for Trump: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +10 min

Three Senate Democratic candidates — Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks and Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin — raised more than four times as much as their Republican opponents during that period. In 2016, Trump lost the core Democratic states by 22 points, and in 2020, he lost them by 24 points. In this most recent poll, Trump was losing the core Democratic states by only 13 points. In 2016, Trump won the core GOP states by 18 points, and in 2020, his margin in the red states was 16 points. Read more → Follow live coverage from the campaign trail →That’s all from the Politics Desk for now.

Persons: Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman, Chuck Todd, Ben Kamisar Republican megadonors, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Elon Musk, Marc Andreesen, Ben Horowitz, Ike Perlmutter, Richard Uihlein, Adelson, Harris, Musk, Trump, Horowitz, Perlmutter, Lara, Uihlein, Read, Ben →, lissa, ince, arris, huck, rena, huck →, hal, bate, Ted C Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Electoral, Trump, Ben Kamisar Republican, Dallas Mavericks, Tesla, Marvel, Preserve, America, America PAC, Restoration PAC, Wisconsin Senate, Congressional, Trump MAGA Inc Locations: Preserve America, Maine, ried, ote

In the most recent NBC News poll, 54% of respondents say they disapprove of the job Biden is doing. In fact, Biden is now more personally unpopular than either Harris or Trump. Between now and Election Day, I do expect Harris to find more ways to differentiate herself from Biden. If that’s a Biden “hangover” that ends up hurting Trump more than Biden, it means team Harris effectively weaponized his age. In this most recent poll, Trump was losing the core Democratic states by only 13 points.

Persons: Biden, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, —, couldn’t, Biden isn’t, it’s, Let’s, Harris, haven’t, “, ”, John Kerry, Kerry, George W, Trump, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Al Gore, Gore, Humphrey, Nixon, that’s, Nate Cohn Organizations: White House, Biden, NBC, GOP, Democratic, Trump, The New York Times, Electoral College, Electoral Locations: Iraq, George H.W .

☆ Melania Trump says she 'couldn't believe it' when Arizona was called 'so early' for Biden in 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Melania Trump in her new book questioned the early Arizona call for Biden on election night in 2020. AdvertisementFormer first lady Melania Trump in her new memoir echoed her husband, former President Donald Trump, by continuing to cast doubt on the results of the 2020 presidential election. Related storiesThe Associated Press projected that Biden would win Arizona hours after Fox News had made their call. But among news outlets, there was some hesitation to call Arizona for Biden early on given the close margin in the state. projections in very important races) because we couldn't rule out a Trump victory based on the available data," he said.

Persons: Melania Trump, Biden, —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Service, GOP, Republican, Democratic, Fox News, Trump, Arizona, Associated Press, Biden, The New York Times, The Times, Fox Locations: Arizona, Washington , DC, Maricopa County

☆ New Battleground Polls Show Harris Has Fundamentally Changed the Race
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If there were any doubt whether Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, this morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls put it to rest. In our first swing state polls since her entry into the race, Vice President Harris leads Donald J. Trump by four points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls, which found Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris and President Biden by an average of one or two points each across the same three states. Sometimes, it can be hard to explain why polls shift from week to week or month to month. It prevented Democrats from running their usual strategy against Mr. Trump and his MAGA allies: Make an election a referendum on Mr. Trump by running a broadly acceptable candidate.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald J, Trump, It’s, Biden, MAGA Organizations: New York Times, Times, Mr Locations: Siena, Pennsylvania , Michigan, Wisconsin

☆ Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Lisa Lerer | Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it. Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9. The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden. [On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have major reservations about Kamala Harris, Nate Cohn writes.]

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald J, Trump, Biden’s, Harris, Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: Wisconsin , Pennsylvania, Michigan

☆ With Walz, Harris Passes on a Chance to Redefine Herself
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

A few days ago, Donald J. Trump said vice-presidential nominees have “virtually no impact” electorally. By selecting Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate on Tuesday, Kamala Harris put Mr. Trump one step closer to being proved right. A few days ago, it wasn’t so obvious Mr. Trump’s claim was on safe footing. While it’s true that most vice-presidential nominees don’t have a major impact, they often help the ticket in the vice-presidential nominee’s home state. Instead, she selected someone from Minnesota, which is not a top-tier battleground.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Tim Walz, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Harris, Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly of Arizona Organizations: Pennsylvania Locations: Minnesota

☆ Can Kamala Harris Rebuild the Democratic Coalition?
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With a little over three months until the presidential election, Kamala Harris inherited a Democratic coalition that was badly frayed. In polls this year, young, Black and Hispanic voters abandoned President Biden in droves. To win, Vice President Harris will need to stitch a winning Democratic coalition back together. While it’s still early, the first polls since Ms. Harris all but locked up the nomination suggest she has already made some progress. To win the Electoral College, she’ll need additional gains in the months ahead.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, Harris, it’s, she’s Organizations: Democratic, Trump, Republican, Electoral College

☆ The Harris Electorate
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Kamala Harris inherited a Democratic coalition that was badly frayed. In polls, young, Black and Hispanic voters abandoned President Biden in droves. And for the first time in years, more Americans said they leaned Republican than Democratic. To win, the vice president will need to win back the deserters without alienating the anti-Trump moderates who put Democrats over the top in 2020. But while she’s running ahead of where Biden stood when he left the race, she’s still short of hitting traditional Democratic benchmarks.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, it’s, she’s Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Trump

Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans. Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match. Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. The country’s view of Ms. Harris has also brightened, with her favorable rating rising by 10 percentage points since February. In a multicandidate race, less than a single percentage point separated Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, with Ms. Harris at 44 percent and Mr. Trump at 43 percent after rounding.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Donald J, Trump, Biden, Harris, Nate Cohn, Mr, Erin Schaff, Harris’s, JD Vance, Ohio, “, ”, Summer Nesbitt, Nesbitt, Biden’s, Trump’s, … Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Harris —, don’t, Eddie Otzoy, Hillary Clinton, Michael Newman, —, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, ” Harris Trump, Christine Zhang Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Democratic Party, Democratic, Mr, Republicans, Times, Credit, The New York Times, Sun, Republican National Convention, Trump, Siena, “, Democrats Locations: Siena, Atlanta, Nevada , Arizona, Georgia, Detroit, Pennsylvania, Los Angeles, Arlington , Texas

☆ A Lot of Major Shifts Beneath the Surface in a New Trump-Harris Poll
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

After all the political tumult of the last month, Thursday’s latest New York Times/Siena College poll is full of findings unlike any we’ve seen this cycle, with one exception: who leads the presidential race. The poll found Donald J. Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by one percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters. Other than the name of the Democratic candidate, “Trump +1” is a result that could have been from any other Times/Siena poll before President Biden’s disastrous debate. But on question after question, there are major shifts from previous Times-Siena polls, which were all taken before Vice President Harris essentially locked up her party’s nomination for president, before the Republican convention, and before the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump. Even the one-point Harris deficit represents a significant improvement for Democrats from Mr. Biden’s six-point deficit in our last Times/Siena poll.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Kamala Harris, “, Biden’s, Harris, Mr Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Democratic, “ Trump, Times, Republican Locations: Siena

☆ If Harris Is the Nominee, It Still Won’t Be Easy to Beat Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It hasn’t always been easy for Democrats to follow this playbook. With President Biden bowing out of the race Sunday and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats still won’t find it easy to follow their time-tested approach. Many Democrats have coalesced behind Ms. Harris, but she doesn’t start the campaign as the kind of broadly acceptable candidate Democrats have put forward to great success during the Trump era. At the outset, one enormous caveat is necessary: Ms. Harris became a candidate for president only on Sunday. She will have every opportunity to reintroduce herself to the nation, distinguish herself from Mr. Biden and rally Democratic voters in the weeks ahead.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, they’ve, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Democrats, Democratic

☆ How Will Vance Affect the Race? Look at 2028, Not 2024.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The campaign was jolted by President Biden’s debate performance, which led many Democrats to call on him to leave the race. Of all these events, the selection of Mr. Vance seems by far the least significant — at least for this campaign. Historically, vice-presidential selections play only a minor role in the course of presidential elections, and Mr. Vance is probably less likely than most to change the direction of the race. His basic political identity — a white, male, populist Trump loyalist — reinforces the core message of the Trump ticket. Mr. Vance will not bestow a small home state “bonus” in a swing state, either, as Mr. Vance’s home state, Ohio, is not competitive.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Vance, Tim Kaine, Sarah Palin Organizations: Trump, Republican Locations: Ohio

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