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Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Goldilocks meets Santa as global stocks power to best month in three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S

☆ Take Five: Warming up this winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE

Oil futures traded steady ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which could bring some kind of agreement on output cuts in 2024. Gold futures finished higher as the dollar index slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark for the euro area, rose 3 basis points to a 1-1/2-week high. Oil prices were steady after tumbling more than 1% on concerns over a delayed OPEC+ meeting. ($1 = 7.2111 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York, Naomi Rovnick in London and Stella Qiu in Sydney.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Germany's DAX, Peter Doherty, Arbuthnot Latham, Robert Holzmann, Pierre Wunsch, Chris Prentice, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Toby Chopra, Susan Fenton, Mark Potter, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Hamas, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, China's CSI, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Germany, Israel, London, Belgian, Asia, New York, Sydney

Photographers take photos near a large screen showing stock prices at the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) after market opens in Tokyo, Japan October 2, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Global shares drifted on Friday in the absence of guidance from Wall Street, which was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday the previous day, but they were still on course for their best month since November 2020. An indecisive Asia session extended to Europe, with the Stoxx 600 share index (.STOXX) trading flat. Despite optimism having surged across global markets this month, there may also be a lull ahead as investors position their portfolios for 2024, some analysts said. Minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting signalled there would not be more hikes unless progress against taming inflation faltered.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Peter Doherty, Arbuthnot Latham, Shane Oliver, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes, Robert Birsel, Toby Chopra, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Wall, Nasdaq, Hamas, AMP, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, China's CSI, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Europe, Israel, U.S, London, OPEC

Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. If the BOJ pulls interest rates above zero for the first time in years, banks' lending margins could rise. Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo, said he had also been buying Japanese bank stocks. BOND PAINJapanese inflation means bond investors could suffer. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy.

Persons: Issei Kato, Shigeka Koda, Koda, Steve Donzé, Junichi Inoue, Janus Henderson, James Halse, Warren Buffett, David Hogarty, Jon Day, Grégoire Pesques, Amundi, Pictet's Donzé, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, LONDON, Asia Investment, Kosaido Holdings, Kyushu Financial, Pictet, Management, Platinum Asset Management, Global, Bank of America, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Dublin, Newton Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Singapore, Sydney, United States, Europe, London

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Global stocks traded cautiously on Monday as the market's focus turned to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether global interest rates really have peaked. Economists polled by Reuters expect to see headline consumer price inflation in the U.S. slow to 3.3% in October from 3.7% the month before, although the so-called core inflation rate that strips out volatile components is seen unchanged. "But now, the Treasury market has already priced in a pause, so there's not much room for Treasury yields to fall further," removing a support for the stock market. "In short, I don't think the stock market rally is going to continue."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naka Matsuzawa, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Dow, Nasdaq, Barclays, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Nomura Securities, Treasury, Economic Cooperation, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, United States, Asia, San Francisco, Iraq, London, Tokyo

Bets on oil prices moving up from here are at their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CME options market volatility data shows. Average daily volumes in energy options of the CME exchange overall are the highest since an all-time record in 2018. "The aftermath of the attacks and rising Middle East tensions did not impact oil prices as many investors expected, including ourselves," Unigestion multi-asset portfolio manager Sandrine Perret said. Reuters Graphics3/ DEFENCE STOCKSA gauge of defence stocks compiled by index provider MarketVector (.MVDEF) is 8% higher in the four weeks since the conflict began. It's also near eight-year highs versus the euro and therefore another asset class attracting questions about how it would perform if Middle East tensions are resolved.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Israel, Sandrine Perret, Derek Sammann, Gold, Jeff, Mikhail Zverev, Ron Temple, It's, Francesca Fornasari, Fornasari, Elisa Belgacem, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S White, Aegon, Reuters, Global, Defence, Lazard Asset Management, Swiss, Insight Investment, Generali Investments, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Jordan, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Europe

[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. Underlying inflation picked up last month, largely driven by housing costs, a U.S. Commerce Department report showed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 1.12%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.48% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.38%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed about 1% higher after hitting a fresh 11-month low on Thursday. The yen hit a new one-year low of 150.77 per dollar overnight and was last at 149.59 .

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jeffrey Roach, Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Richard Chang, Alexander Smith, Sandra Maler Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, U.S . Commerce Department, Federal, LPL Financial, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intel, Chevron, European Central Bank, Sanofi, . Treasury, Bank of America, ECB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Gaza, Boston, London, Sydney

☆ Big central banks hit pause, with rate cuts far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

On Oct. 23, Fed Chair Jay Powell said a strong economy and tight jobs market could warrant more rate rises. Interest rate futures show traders believe the BoE will not cut rates, now at their highest since 2008, until at least June 2024. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said, adding it would follow a "data-dependent" approach and future decisions would be based on incoming data. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told parliament last week interest rates may have peaked. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics8) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.1% for a fourth meeting in October.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Jay Powell, BoE, Jonas Gahr Stoere, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Chiara Elisei, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Riddhima, Sumanta Sen, Vineet, Amanda Cooper, Giles Elgood Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, UNITED, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, BRITAIN, Bank of Canada, BoC, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Washington, Japan, hawkish, dovish, NORWAY, SWEDEN Sweden, SWITZERLAND, Swiss, Gaza, JAPAN

[1/3] The Standard Chartered bank logo is seen at their headquarters in London, Britain, July 26, 2022. The broader European banking index (.SX7P) fell as much as 2.4% to its lowest in four months by 1017 GMT. Top fallers on the index were Standard Chartered, down 9%, Swedbank (SWEDa.ST), down 7% and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), down around 4%. Concerns about China's economic fragility are also hitting some European banks with major operations in Asia. Sabadell (SABE.MC) rose around 3.7% after raising its outlook for 2023 net interest income growth on the back of higher interest rates.

Persons: Peter Nicholls, Chris Hiorns, Banks, Hiorns, Angelo Meda, Meda, Iain Withers, Naomi Rovnick, Joice Alves, Jesus Aguado, Danilo Masoni, Amanda Cooper, John Stonestreet, Toby Chopra Organizations: Chartered, REUTERS, BNP, European Central Bank, Traders, SIM, Sabadell, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, LONDON, Milan, Asia, Madrid

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. That was a relief to financial markets, roiled in recent weeks by a surge in government bond yields led by U.S. Treasuries. The central bank reiterated it would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under its 1.7 trillion euro pandemic-era bond scheme until the end of 2024. Instead, the ECB kept the emphasis on slowing inflation, raising investors' conviction that September's rate rise was the central bank's last. And inflation risks have not disappeared.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Gabriele Foa, reinvestments, Marcus Brookes, Sabrina Kanniche, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, Nick Zieminski Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, U.S, Treasuries, Reuters, Danske Bank, The Bank of, Algebris, Quilter Investors, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, Copenhagen, Israel, The Bank of Canada, wean, Ukraine

ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany

Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London

☆ Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul

Electronic boards showing stock information are pictured at the stock market, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 5, 2020. "Such an escalation could lead to increased oil prices, concerns about oil supply, and the potential for a global economic downturn." In the unlikely event the United States sends troops into the Middle East, Belote expected a $20 jump in oil prices, "if not more". "Israel has better relations with other Arab countries compared to then," JP Morgan private bank strategist Madison Faller said in a note, "and global oil supply is not as concentrated." Reuters Graphics5/ TECH JITTERSWhat's good for oil stocks can be bad for big tech.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Hamza Meddeb, Malcolm H, Brent Belote, Belote, JP, Madison Faller, Nadia Martin Wiggen, Alessia Berardi, Amundi's Berardi, Trevor Greetham, Morgan Stanley, Jeff, London's Greetham, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Oil, JP Morgan, Svelland, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Reuters, Swiss, Royal, Aegon, Deutsche Bank, Aerospace, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Israel, Gaza, Beirut, IRAN, Iran, U.S, United States, Arab, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Suez, London

☆ Bargain hunters dig in to 'cheap' European banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Just before earnings season kicks off, European bank shares are sporting a dividend yield of almost 8%, making them cheaper on this basis than during the 2008 global financial crisis. European banks, which struggled during 2014 to 2022 as the ECB kept rates below zero, have had a major boost from hiking their loan costs in line with central bank rates. Analyst forecasts collated by European asset manager Amundi show European banks are expected to grow adjusted earnings per share by 25% this year, followed by a 6% gain in 2024. Generali's Morganti said he has moved his position on European banks from negative to neutral and was likely to add more. He did not forecast quick gains for European banks ahead, however.

Persons: Guy de Blonay, Sebastiano Pirro, Roger Lee, Amundi, LSEG, Michele Morganti, Italy's Unicredit, Banks, Pirro, Generali's Morganti, Naomi Rovnick, Joice Alves, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banks, Jupiter Asset Management, Algebris Investments, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Bank, Generali Investments, Monetary Fund, Thomson

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

☆ Oil, Treasuries, gold prices jump amid Mideast fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. Spot gold added 3.2% on the day to $1,928.99 an ounce, and had its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. "Everything that's going on in the Middle East is getting more and more unfortunately depressing and seems to have the potential to get worse," he said. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.98% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.81%. The dollar was also helped by safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Treasuries, Brent, Marvin Loh, Herbert Lash, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Marguerita Choy, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Treasury, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Boston, New York

☆ Treasuries, gold prices rise, stocks fall on Mideast fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was lower despite upbeat results from big U.S. banks on Friday, which marked the unofficial start of the third-quarter reporting period for S&P 500 companies. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.97% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.67%. The index, which jumped 0.8% on Thursday, its biggest one-day rise since March 15, is on pace to finish the week higher. U.S. crude recently rose 4.19% to $86.38 per barrel and Brent was at $89.48, up 4.05% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tom di Galoma, Brent, Herbert Lash, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton, Kim Coghill, Chizu Nomiyama, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, BTIG, New York

SINGAPORE/LONDON Oct 13 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on Friday while assets considered to be safer havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries rose as traders retreated from market risk as conflict in the Middle East intensified. MSCI's broadest index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.3%, while Europe's Stoxx 600 share index (.STOXX) slid 0.4%. Brent crude oil futures jumped 2.7% on Friday to $88.29 a barrel, on track for a 4.3% advance this week. Spot gold gained 0.8% on Friday to $1,885 an ounce, set for a gain of 2.4% over the week. The risk-off mood also prevailed in the currency market, with the dollar holding on to most overnight gains.

Persons: Trevor Greetham, Treasuries, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Edwina Gibbs, Susan Fenton, Kim Coghill Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Middle, Gaza, Hamas, Ashkelon, Israel, Brent, U.S, Baltic, Asia, Japan, MIAPJ0000PUS

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