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☆ Dollar weak as traders add to wagers of big rate cut from Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the Fed is all but certain to cut rates next week, uncertainty around whether it will go with a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points has kept investors on the edge and weighed on the dollar. Analysts pointed to media reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal suggesting the Fed's decision would be a close call as one of the reasons for traders adding to wagers of a big rate cut next week. Higher U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the Wall Street Journal article on the Fed's rate cut dilemma revived bets on a jumbo cut at the September meeting, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week. "Risks remain that inflation may not return to target as easily as everyone, including the Fed, seems to expect."

Persons: Christopher Wong, Christine Lagarde, Ryan Brandham, Naoki Tamura, Sterling, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Wall, Traders, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Validus Risk Locations: North America

☆ Dollar firm as inflation data douse bets for big Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, a quarter-point rate reduction from the European Central Bank is widely expected later on Thursday, with investors anxious for hints on how soon the monetary authority will cut again. Early on Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reinforced the central bank's tightening bias by saying low real rates leave room for further rate hikes. As a result, traders essentially priced out the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut on Sept. 18, paring the odds to 15% versus 85% probability for a 25-bp reduction.

Persons: Junko Nakagawa, Naoki Tamura, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, IG, ECB, Sterling, Swiss Locations: U.S

☆ Yen hits 34-yr low ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The yen briefly traded at 151.97 per dollar in the Asia session, down about 0.2% and its weakest since mid-1990. China's yuan and the New Zealand dollar traded near four-month lows. The yuan weakened to 7.2285 per dollar despite a strong fix of its trading band. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.5988, not helped by a downward revision to the government's economic growth forecasts.

Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Naoki Tamura Organizations: National Australia Bank, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, Asia

Adachi said Japan has yet to see a positive wage-inflation cycle, in which wages and inflation rise together, kick off. The BOJ can start debating an exit strategy only when the chance of such a cycle emerging heightens, he added. But Adachi said the BOJ did not necessarily need to wait until inflation-adjusted wage growth turns positive for it to normalise monetary policy. Hawkish member Naoki Tamura in August signalled a chance of ending negative rates early next year, saying Japan's inflation was already "clearly in sight" of the BOJ's target. With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, many market players expect the BOJ to end negative rates and YCC next year, with some betting on a move as early as January.

Persons: Issei Kato, Seiji Adachi, Adachi, we're, Naoki Tamura, YCC, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Chang, Ran Kim, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, MATSUYAMA, Matsuyama

☆ Analysis: BOJ's hawkish tilt suggests end to super-easy policy approaching
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another board member, Junko Nakagawa, laid out the conditions for ending negative rates, notably a continued improvement in household confidence. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)." Less than half expect negative rates to end in 2024. There seems to be no consensus within the BOJ board, however, on when or how the bank would dismantle Kuroda's complex policy framework. Ueda said the BOJ could end negative rates if it believed that inflation would sustainably hold above the target.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, Ueda, Tamura, Haruhiko Kuroda, Naoki Tamura, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hajime Takata, Junko Nakagawa, Shinichi Uchida, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. The central bank would take time to determine whether it can raise interest rates as it waits for evidence that a sustained economic recovery will eradicate Japan's deflationary mindset, he said. "The key is for the economy to keep recovering," Nakamura told a news conference, when asked about the conditions for ending negative interest rates. We therefore need more time before shifting to monetary tightening," he said, adding the key was to determine whether companies' growth expectations were heightening. Markets are divided on whether the BOJ could remove the yield cap before raising short-term rates, ditch both simultaneously, or keep the yield cap when ending negative rates as a precaution against an abrupt rise in long-term yields.

Persons: Issei Kato, Nakamura, Toyoaki Nakamura, Japan's, we're, Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christian Schmollinger, Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hitachi Ltd, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, GIFU, Gifu

☆ BOJ policymaker Nakamura warns against premature monetary tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tightening monetary policy before rising prices are accompanied by higher wages would hurt domestic demand and corporate profits, Nakamura said. We therefore need more time before shifting to monetary tightening," Nakamura said in a speech to business leaders in the city of Gifu in central Japan. "Close scrutiny of (economic) conditions and cautious decision-making are required when modifying monetary policy," he said, warning against shifting policy too hastily. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the BOJ must maintain ultra-low rates until there is more evidence that Japan's inflation can sustainably hit 2% backed by solid consumption and wage growth. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Nakamura, Toyoaki Nakamura, Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nakamura Overseas, Hitachi Ltd, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Gifu

☆ Euro steadies as markets raise bets of ECB hike after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Money markets raised their bets on a September rate hike from the ECB, pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis-point move. "One key input to arrive at a final assessment is the inflation data this week," he added. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - slipped 0.1% to 103.47. INTERVENTION TERRITORYThe dollar rose 0.35% to 146.38 yen .

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Schroeder, pare, Charu, Jerome Powell, Naoki Tamura, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Miral Fahmy, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal, Reuters, Money, ECB, ING, Fed, Saxo . Money, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Germany, Spain, North Rhine, Westphalia, NRW, People's Bank of China, London, Tokyo

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - The euro eased against the dollar on Wednesday as investors looked to more labour market data in the U.S. and inflation data in the euro zone to provide clues on the path for central banks policies. "One key input to arrive at a final assessment is the inflation data this week," he added. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0856. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - edged 0.1% higher at 103.67. INTERVENTION TERRITORYThe dollar rose 0.38% to 146.43 yen .

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Schroeder, pare, Matt Simpson, Jerome Powell, Naoki Tamura, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Money, ECB, ING, Index, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Spain, Germany, Westphalia, NRW, People's Bank of China, London, Tokyo

☆ BOJ policymaker signals chance of policy tweak early next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The remarks are the strongest signal to date by a Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker that rising inflation and wages could prod the bank to take bolder steps towards phasing out its radical stimulus. "About a decade has passed since the BOJ began efforts to sustainably and stably achieve its 2% inflation target. For now, the BOJ must sustain monetary easing to scrutinise wage and price developments, said the former commercial banker. "Abandoning negative rates will obviously be among options" if the BOJ were to normalise policy, he said. "Even if the BOJ were to end negative rates, it won't be scaling back monetary easing as long as it can keep interest rates low."

Persons: Issei Kato, Tamura BOJ, KUSHIRO, Naoki Tamura, Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Shinichi Uchida, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

☆ Dollar finds feet as investors await further clues on Fed path
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar on Wednesday clawed back some of the previous session's sharp declines as investors looked ahead to more labour market data for clues on the path for Federal Reserve policy. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - added 0.09% to 103.64 as of the Asian afternoon. On Tuesday, it had surged to a 10-month peak at 147.375 leading into the JOLTS report, only to end the day with a 0.45% decline. The Aussie dollar dipped as much as 0.46% after the data but eventually shook the data off to trade little changed at $0.64775. The Chinese yuan weakened slightly in offshore trading to 7.3002 per dollar, but remained well above the Aug. 17 low of 7.3490.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, pare, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Naoki Tamura, Jerome Powell, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, we're, Chris Weston, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lincoln, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Treasury, Bank of Japan, Money, Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: People's Bank of China

☆ Bank of Japan member called for early revision of YCC at June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan should discuss revising its yield curve control (YCC) policy at an early stage, a board member was quoted as saying at a June policy meeting, a summary of opinions at the rate review released on Monday. While the central bank should keep overall monetary policy ultra-loose, it should debate tweaking YCC to improve market function and mitigate its "high cost," the member was quoted as saying. It was the first time the BOJ summary showed a board member explicitly mentioning the need for an early debate of a tweak to YCC. "The Bank should maintain the overall framework of monetary easing for the time being," the member said. At the June meeting, the BOJ maintained ultra-easy monetary policy including its YCC targets - set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year bond yield.

Persons: Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

Rather, it must come up with ideas" to mitigate the costs and help sustain stimulus, Uchida told an upper house confirmation hearing. The remarks follow those of incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday suggesting his preference to spend "plenty of time" if the central bank were to conduct a review of its policy framework. While stressing that it was premature to discuss an exit strategy from ultra-loose monetary policy, Uchida said any exit would involve adjustments in the BOJ's interest rate targets and the level of its balance sheet. "In what order and at what timing the BOJ will make these adjustments will depend on economic and financial developments at the time," Uchida said. The BOJ can tap its experience conducting ultra-loose policy and dealing with market forces, to ensure it can steer a smooth exit regardless of economic conditions at the time, he said.

☆ BOJ board member calls for keeping ultra-easy policy for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A former commercial banker, Tamura repeated his view that the BOJ must at some point conduct a comprehensive assessment of its monetary policy framework by weighing the benefits of costs of current ultra-loose policy. "We're now in a phase where we need to scrutinise whether Japan can achieve a positive wage-inflation cycle. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Tamura said the BOJ's decision in December was aimed at minimising the side-effects of YCC and making its monetary easing more sustainable, not at tightening policy. With the 10-year bond yield breaching the cap, the central bank said on Wednesday it would conduct emergency bond purchases to fend off a renewed market attack on YCC.

☆ Analysis: Kuroda's abrupt policy tweak opens door for bigger shift next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Waiting until next year would have forced the BOJ to combat intensifying market speculation of a near-term policy shift, or act when a deep U.S. recession could hit Japan's economy, they say. "When uncertainty is so high over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, it probably wants to have a free hand on when next to act." POLITICS KEY TRIGGERThe abrupt timing of Tuesday's move also reflects growing political pressure for the BOJ to shift away from a policy narrowly focused on its 2% inflation target, the sources say. Hours before he met Kishida, Kuroda explained in parliament a framework on how the BOJ could exit ultra-easy policy in the future. Another dovish board member, Asahi Noguchi, also said earlier this month it "won't be surprising" for the BOJ to shift monetary policy.

☆ As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

PUBLIC DISCONTENTAfter a tumultuous year for the world's third-largest economy, Japan's central bank and its leadership face a critical moment. While ruling out the need to ditch the yield cap now, Takata recently said he saw positive developments in wage growth. "The BOJ must start worrying about the possibility of inflation accelerating more than expected," he told Reuters, adding the BOJ may abandon its yield cap as early as next year. Such a reaction was seen in March when the BOJ was forced to pledge unlimited bond buying to defend its yield cap from speculative market attacks. "That's why the BOJ won't provide advance signals and remove the yield cap in a single step."

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, hold fire until global outlook clearer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are rife with speculation that the BOJ will adjust its policy when Kuroda's second, five-year term ends in April. CONTENT WITH STATUS QUOAmid uncertainty over the global outlook and pace of Japanese wage rises, the BOJ is content with maintaining the status quo for now, the sources said. The BOJ expects the inflation rate to slow below its target next year because cost pressure will dissipate. Any chance of a BOJ policy adjustment will disappear if the Fed fails to tame inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into deep recession, analysts say. "But the BOJ will probably find it hard to phase out stimulus if the global economy is in bad shape," he said.

☆ Investors revive wagers on Bank of Japan policy change
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Global investors are short-selling Japanese bonds and driving its other market yields higher, reviving bets that the Bank of Japan will need to tweak its ultra-easy monetary policy sooner rather than later. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly stressed the need to persist with the bank's unique yield-curve-control policy, which makes Japan an outlier among major central banks aggressively tightening policy to combat inflation. Japan swaps vs yieldsKuroda has said policy will not change until the recent cost-push inflation is accompanied by higher growth in wages. "The central bank may tweak its YCC before March. There should be an event weight it doesn’t have at the moment," says Malcolm, while making clear UBS does not expect any policy change for at least another year.

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, remain global outlier despite weak yen
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Any such decision could drive down the Japanese currency further from 24-year lows hit in recent weeks, as investors focus on the widening gap between Japan's ultra-low interest rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike plans. "With other central banks hiking rates, the BOJ's negative rate policy will come under the spotlight and may unleash further yen selling." The BOJ's rate review will be the first one for Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura, who joined the nine-member board in July. They succeeded former commercial banker Hitoshi Suzuki and economist Goushi Kataoka, a vocal advocate of aggressive easing who consistently voted against keeping rates steady. A unanimous vote would suggest the two newcomers are unlikely to rock the boat on monetary policy for the time being.

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