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☆ Is it time to worry about stagflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.

Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, ”, Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, “, That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia

☆ Britain faces a mortgage crisis with renters and homeowners in the crossfire. Here's how to protect your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"Demand is being stoked by a strong jobs market, record immigration and rising mortgage rates," Donnell said. Mortgage crisisBritain's mortgage crisis has been brewing for months. Nicholas Mendes, a technical mortgage manager at mortgage broker and advisor John Charcol, told CNBC Make It that there are pros and cons to both. Prospective buyers may feel "trapped" in the rental market, which could deter them from trying to buy, they told CNBC Make It. Higher mortgage rates are prompting some of those who still have mortgages to pay off to pass on those additional costs to renters, he said.

Persons: Oliver Knight, Knight Frank, Oscar Wong, Ed Monk, Richard Donnell, Zoopla, Donnell, Monk, Nicholas Mendes, John Charcol, Mendes, Urvish Patel, Barry Naisbitt Organizations: Fidelity International, CNBC, Mortgage, Bank of, Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research Locations: Britain

☆ Mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded shortly after the BOE's rate hike that the government's mission to halve inflation to 5% by the end of the year had recently become more difficult. There is intensifying pressure on Britain's government to do more to help struggling households, with the country's shadow finance minister warning of a "mortgage catastrophe" as millions are pushed to the brink of insolvency. The Bank of England last week hiked interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, a bigger increase than many had expected. The BOE's 13th consecutive rate rise takes the base rate to the highest level since 2008. "The rise in interest rates to 5% will push millions of households with mortgages towards the brink of insolvency," said Max Mosley, an economist at NIESR.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, NIESR, Max Mosley Organizations: Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research Locations: Wales, England

With some 1.6 million of those due to re-fix mostly 2-5 year fixed rate deals over the next 18 months - half of those by the end of this year - this super-hike will burn. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have doubled to 6% in just 10 months and were less than 1% two years ago. Fixed-rate deals were only introduced at all in 1989 and the vast majority were floating rates until just eight years ago. As Leaviss points out, five-year inflation expectations in the bond market are still stubbornly one percentage point above the 2% goal. In the end, the BoE has few good choices - but the days of fine tuning the economy with nudges and tweaks may be over.

Persons: BoE, that's, Moyeen, Jim Leaviss, Vivek Paul, Paul, Leaviss, Mike Dolan, Naomi Rovnick, Conor Humphries Organizations: Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Barclays, Bank, Investment, BlackRock Investment Institute, OECD, Twitter, Thomson Locations: United States, Germany

☆ Britain is facing a mortgage crisis. There are no easy answers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage painThe announcement comes a day after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point to help bring down stubborn inflation. More than 2 million UK mortgage holders paying a fixed interest rate are facing an increase of hundreds of pounds in monthly repayments when they are forced to refinance this year and next. Many borrowers bought their homes when mortgage rates were closer to 1% or 2%. That sets the country apart from other major economies, including the United States, where on both measures inflation has started to ease. After the latest rise in interest rates Thursday, Hunt said the government would “stick to [its] guns” on keeping rates high to tame high prices.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Sarah Coles, Hargreaves Lansdown, ”, Matt Hammerstein, David Duffy, Debbie Crosby, James Manning, ” Max Mosley, Jake Berry, Sunak, Liz Truss, Brexit, Mark Carney, Charlie Bean, Hunt, ” — Hanna Ziady Organizations: London CNN, UK Treasury, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Barclays, BCS, CNN, Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Virgin Money, Conservative Party, Institute for Fiscal Studies, European Union, Bank of, Daily Telegraph, BBC Radio Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Britain

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.

☆ UK think-tank urges Hunt to think again on budget squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt should rethink his plans to raise taxes and cut spending in next week's budget, a think-tank said, warning that many households would need further government help even without a fresh squeeze on the public finances. "It's not at all clear that the Chancellor needs to raise taxes or cut spending in the Autumn Statement next week. NIESR's deputy director for public policy, Adrian Pabst, said the cost of supporting the poorest households did not have to be big. "It seems extraordinary to suggest that this country cannot afford 0.2% of GDP to help the most vulnerable," Pabst said. ($1 = 0.8516 pounds)Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The net effect was to catapult next year's implied Fed terminal rate well above 5%. Fed vs BoE Terminal RatesNIESR chart on UK variable mortgagesBANK "IN A HOLE"Although the BoE insisted further hikes from 3% would likely be needed, two of the nine person policymaking council voted for a smaller rate rise this week. State Street's EMEA macro strategist Tim Graf also thinks a terminal rate closer to 4% is now "the more likely end state for policy rates." The BoE needs to be super careful about the pound because another withering lurch will simply aggravate import and energy price inflation. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

And futures now assume the inflation fight will fall solely on the BoE and expect it to triple policy rates to as high as 5.8-6% next year. On Tuesday, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies said Kwarteng needed 62 billion pounds ($68.22 billion) of spending cuts to keep public debt sustainable over time, with borrowing this year on course for 194 billion pounds and still above 100 billion by 2026/27 - over 70 billion higher than OBR forecasts in March. QE involves the purchase of mostly gilts from commercial banks in return for interest-bearing reserves at the central bank. And, unlike other major central banks, the BoE policy rate itself is the rate paid on those bank reserves. NIESR last year urged a solution to the problem whereby Treasury and central bank reduced the maturity mismatch by swapping longer-dated gilts back to Treasury to cut duration of its portfolios.

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