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But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession risks are 'now more politics and geopolitics than economics,' says NBER's LipskyJohn Lipsky, director-at-large at the National Bureau of Economic Research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the week's economic data, how Lipsky considers the geopolitical climate, and more.
Persons: NBER's Lipsky John Lipsky, Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy's performance post-COVID has been 'rather unique', says NBER's John LipskyJohn Lipsky, NBER director, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Fed Chair Powell's recent comments, recent economic data readings, what to expect from the economy in the coming months and more.
Persons: NBER's John Lipsky John Lipsky
The Softbank-owned chip designer's return to the public markets — the largest initial public offering since 2021 — was the highlight of the week. Those are the three things that we'll be focusing on in the week ahead. While struggling to snap back after Covid, China this week reported better-than-expected industrial output and stronger retail sales, signaling that things may be looking up. The United Auto Workers strike against Detroit's three biggest automakers will continue in the week ahead, barring a labor deal. ET: Fed Governor Lisa Cook is set to deliver the keynote address at the NBER's Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference in Toronto, Canada.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell's, Jim Cramer, it's, Jim Farley, Stanley Black, Decker, Eli Lilly, Jerome Powell, Mills, Lisa Cook, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, United Auto Workers, automakers, Fed, West Texas, Saudi, Coterra Energy, Natural Resources, Detroit's, UAW, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, CNBC, Stanley, Housing, Apogee Enterprise, FedEx, KB, Darden, NBER's, Artificial Intelligence, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS Locations: U.S, Covid, China, WTI, Toronto, Canada, New York City
As the president of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member on the Business Cycle Dating Committee, James Poterba helps determine when a recession officially starts and ends. With Federal Reserve economists predicting that the economy will enter a slump later this year, I spoke with Poterba about his research on recessions. While NBER doesn't make any forecasts, he still had lots of interesting things to say about our downturn worries. What is the chance that an increase of interest rates is associated, sometime afterwards, with a period of declining economic activity? Or, if you see a large run-up in oil prices, does that typically lead to a recession?
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER's Charles Dallara expects a mild recession in the second half of the yearCharles Dallara, NBER director, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the banking collapse, recession likelihood and the Beige Book.
NBER's Charles Dallara on the odds of a recession
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER's Charles Dallara on the odds of a recessionCharles Dallara, former Institute of International Finance CEO and Director at Large at the National Bureau of Economic Research, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss increased odds of a recession, the economic reaction to quantitative contraction, and more.
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.
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