Now, however, some firms and experts are walking back those predictions, calling into question the validity of a once-trusted recession indicator known as the yield curve inversion.
Nobody rational would argue that the yield curve could have predicted a global pandemic and the short recession that followed it.
NABE's most recent survey shows economists are divided on what a yield curve inversion means for the U.S. economy.
In normal circumstances, yield curve inversions have been a pretty good indicator of recessions, according to Jebaraj.
While the yield curve inverted in 2019, that was not necessarily a predictor of the 2020 recession.
Persons:
Mervin, NABE, Goldman Sachs, NABE's Jebaraj, Sam, Jebaraj, —
Organizations:
Westend61, Getty, National Association for Business Economics, Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Center for Business, Economic Research, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Treasury, National Association for Business
Locations:
U.S