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Why new retirees may need to rethink the 4% rule
  + stars: | 2024-12-17 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
A popular retirement strategy known as the 4% rule may need some recalibration for 2025 based on market conditions, according to new research. The 4% rule helps retirees determine how much money they can withdraw annually from their accounts and be relatively confident they won't run out of money over a 30-year retirement period. According to the strategy, retirees tap 4% of their nest egg the first year. But that "safe" withdrawal rate declined to 3.7% in 2025, from 4% in 2024, due to long-term assumptions in the financial markets, according to Morningstar research. "We caution, the assumptions that underpin [the 4% rule] are incredibly conservative," Benz said.
Persons: Roth, Christine Benz, Benz Organizations: Morningstar, Finance, Social, Morningstar analysts
Attractive returns and a breadth of opportunities are among the reasons the U.S. market historically reigns supreme among investors. However, one market watcher considers U.S. stocks to be expensive and is now seeking opportunities in cheaper markets with what he sees as better risk-adjusted returns. "Many large U.S. stocks appear to be expensive and consequently are offering lower future returns," Morningstar analysts wrote in a 2025 outlook report. 'Attractive pockets' Going forward, Morningstar's top executive is optimistic on markets like Japan and China which present "attractive pockets" of opportunity. 'Pockets of undervaluation' Over in Japan, Kapoor likes that the market offers "pockets of undervaluation."
Persons: Kunal Kapoor, I'm, Kapoor, Morningstar, Warren Buffett Organizations: CNBC Pro, Morningstar, China Holdings, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Nippon ISA Locations: U.S, Japan, China
President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe
Semiconductor stocks have been volatile. Last Friday, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 11.6% in a day. Investors might be wondering: What's the outlook for semiconductor stocks — which have been boosted by artificial intelligence — and are there pockets of buying opportunity? It expects orders for PCs and general servers to improve next year as AI-driven demand picks up. As for memory chips, supply is set to remain tight at least till the first half of 2025, thanks to investments in high-bandwidth memory, Morningstar said.
Persons: Morningstar, GlobalWafers Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, SK Hynix, Micron Technology, Morningstar, Edge, Samsung, Screen CNBC, Van Eck Semiconductor Locations: United States
"Our biggest concern is that the market sell-off becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy causing corporate CEOs to cut back on investments and consumers to pull back on spending leading to further cuts and a recession," the analysts added. "In our view, the direct impact of these steep market declines is limited," they said in a note published Monday. Sustained market declines in the wake of the recent global sell-off could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" that eventually leads to a recession, Morningstar DBRS analysts warned. The analysts also said that the impact of the market volatility on banks is likely to be limited, even if further market declines materialize, or if the U.S. enters a recession. There was also "no material impact" expected for capital management by banks in Japan, a region that also saw steep declines.
Persons: Morningstar, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Global, Japan's Nikkei, Tech, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Congressional, U.S, Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Japan
Read previewAsia's version of Chipotle — a Mexican fast-casual chain called Guzman y Gomez — just went public in Australia. The initial public offering brings GYG's valuation to 2.2 billion Australian dollars, or $1.47 billion. The US-based Mexican fast food chain is valued at $94 billion and posted a revenue of nearly $10 billion last year. Chipotle owns and operates all of its restaurants, unlike GYG, which follows a franchise model. They are only available to institutional investors, eligible employees and franchise holders, and retail clients of brokerages who have been allocated GYG shares, the company said in a pre-IPO release.
Persons: , Guzman y Gomez —, GYG, Steven Marks, Marks, Chipotle, Michael Hutchens, didn't, Hutchens, brokerages Organizations: Service, Australian Securities Exchange, Business, Morningstar, Growth Partners, Barrenjoey, Cooper Investors, Hyperion Asset Management, Firetrail Investments, QVG Locations: Mexican, Australia, Sydney, Singapore, Japan, North America, Europe
But investors with a greater risk appetite or a longer runway to retirement can consider stocks. CNBC Pro asked the experts what stocks they would buy that are suited to long-term investing for retirement purposes. Dziubinski named three stocks which she says look undervalued but will make "great long-term investments" at current prices. Starbucks Dziubinski says Starbucks ' brand and pricing power have earned it a wide economic moat rating, which according to the firm refers to a company's durable competitive advantage. Wheaton Precious Metals Regal Point Capital's Marolia named Wheaton Precious Metals as a stock with long-term potential.
Persons: Susan Dziubinski, Dziubinski, Vijay Marolia, Morningstar, Marolia, it's, Wheaton, we've, we're Organizations: Morningstar, CNBC Pro, Regal Point, Consumer, Johnson, Brands, Nike Nike, Nike, Wheaton Precious, Wheaton Precious Metals, Blackstone Group
But the next bottleneck in AI infrastructure — and one to invest in — is networking, according to tech analysts. An increase in investment in generative AI model training and inference will drive the AI networking spending growth of 34% over the next five years, said the firm. "Networking creates a performance bottleneck for generative AI model development," Morningstar's analysts said. "Well-positioned networking firms are a great second derivative play to invest in generative AI," they added. Stocks to play the trend Marvell Technology is Morningstar's top pick to play the generative AI networking trend, with the firm saying it is "attractively undervalued" currently and giving investors an "immediately opportunity" to tap rising generative AI networking investment.
Persons: There's, Clare Pleydell, William D, Kerwin, Brian Colello, Morningstar, Bouverie Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Networking, Morningstar, Liontrust Asset Management, CNBC, That's, Marvell, Arista Networks, Broadcom, Arista, Meta
2023 was the year of large-cap stocks, but 2024 may go down as the year small caps made their comeback. Small stocks, big possibilitiesEarlier this year, Bank of America’s head of US small & mid-cap strategy Jill Carey Hall outlined her take on so-called “SMID-cap” stocks in 2024. Her argument is simple: small-cap stocks are cheap, particularly value stocks, and they’re well-positioned to capitalize on market trends this year. Therefore, while small-cap stocks seem substantially cheaper than their large-cap counterparts, careful asset selection is needed, and we think it’s important to focus on quality.”10 best undervalued small-cap stocks to buyThere’s clearly an opportunity to be had in small-cap value stocks, though that opportunity still comes with its own risks. She recently compiled advice from Morningstar analysts into a list of the 10 best small-cap stocks to buy.
Persons: Jill Carey Hall, , ” Carey, , Dave Sekara, Wharton, Jeremey Siegel, I'm, ” Siegel, there’s, Sekara, Morningstar, Tyler Dann, Susan Dziubinski Organizations: Meta, Nvidia, Business, Bank of, ” Morningstar, CNBC, Morningstar
But the real focus will be on whether widening U.S. curbs on sales of its high-end chips to China could hamper that run. The results will also be a major test for the AI-powered rally that has helped drive up the U.S. stock market this year, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index (.SOX) up nearly 50% in 2023. The Biden administration last month banned China sales of the H800 and A800 chips that Nvidia had created after previous curbs on exports to the country. Reuters GraphicsCHINA CHIPSBefore the latest China export curbs, demand for Nvidia's H800 chip, a slower version of its flagship AI chip, had outpaced rivals as it was better than the alternatives. "It's possible Nvidia's massive growth will make revenue from China less material over time," Morningstar analysts said.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kyle Rodda, Biden, Bernstein, Stacy Rasgon, Arsheeya Bajwa, Chavi Mehta, Devika Organizations: NVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, Reuters Graphics, LSEG, AMD, Web Services, Google, Microsoft, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Lambda, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: China, Philadelphia, Reuters Graphics CHINA, Bengaluru
Last month, bond yields made a comeback and the 10-year Treasury note hit roughly 5%, the highest since 2007. On the other end, bond risk comes from the borrower's ability to pay back their obligation. For investors who want higher income, Bory recommends considering a mutual fund or a commingled fund that provides that diversification. Popular examples of corporate bond funds include the MainStay MacKay High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (MHCAX), Goldman Sachs High Yield Fund (GSHIX), and High Yield Spectrum Fund (PHSIX). Below is a list of Morningstar analysts' favorite high-yield bond funds that have the highest "Gold Medalist" rating.
Persons: George Bory, Bory, MacKay, Goldman Sachs, Allspring, It's, Acct, Rowe Price Organizations: Business, Allspring, Investments, Fed, AAA, BBB, Bond Fund, Fund, Morningstar, PIA Locations: Allspring, US
Since our shareholders are getting Chevron stock, we get to participate in the upside, and also get a higher dividend," he said. He added that Hess shareholders who keep their shares in their combined company will see their dividend rise from $1.75 to $6 per share following the close of the deal. Exxon and Chevron are keen on these deals because they want to avoid the risk of exploring unproven reserves as oil and gas become scarcer. Exxon and Chevron had $29.5 billion and $9.3 billion in cash, respectively, as of the end of June. Keeping dividends and share buybacks strong helps compensate existing Exxon and Chevron shareholders for the dilution incurred in the all-stock acquisitions.
Persons: Hess, John Hess, Andrew Dittmar, David French, Greg Roumeliotis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Exxon, Natural Resources, PDC Energy, Noble Energy, Morningstar, Anadarko, Occidental Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Guyana, New York
Since our shareholders are getting Chevron stock, we get to participate in the upside, and also get a higher dividend," he said. He added that Hess shareholders who keep their shares in their combined company will see their dividend rise from $1.75 to $6 per share following the close of the deal. Exxon and Chevron are keen on these deals because they want to avoid the risk of exploring unproven reserves as oil and gas become scarcer. Exxon and Chevron had $29.5 billion and $9.3 billion in cash, respectively, as of the end of June. Keeping dividends and share buybacks strong helps compensate existing Exxon and Chevron shareholders for the dilution incurred in the all-stock acquisitions.
Persons: Hess, John Hess, Andrew Dittmar, David French, Greg Roumeliotis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Exxon, Natural Resources, PDC Energy, Noble Energy, Morningstar, Anadarko, Occidental Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Guyana, New York
"That represents an 8% discount to our fair value estimates." Sekara was among those who had to try and keep up with the surprising moves among growth stocks this year. Now, with growth stocks cheaper than they have been in months, he's back on the bandwagon. In a separate note published earlier this month, editor Susan Dziubinski polled Morningstar analysts for their top undervalued stocks to buy this quarter. The results are below, along with each company's ticker, latest closing price, price to fair value ratio, fair value uncertainty, and its economic moat rating.
Persons: David Sekara, Morningstar, Sekara, he's, Susan Dziubinski Organizations: Investor, Federal Reserve, Morningstar
Semiconductors are looking undervalued, thanks to the selloff in some parts of the sector, according to Morningstar. That's even more undervalued than the wider tech sector, which it believes is 5% undervalued. Morningstar noted such stocks have sold off a little in September, especially in analog and mixed signal names — two types of chips in the semiconductor industry — and even in artificial intelligence chipmakers. Outside the AI sector, the firm also likes autos, expecting more chips to be used in cars, especially electric vehicles, in the years to come. That will enable the company to achieve high single-digit long term revenue growth, Morningstar said.
Persons: Morningstar, Brian Colello, Jack Keegan, it's Organizations: Nvidia, Infineon Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, Qualcomm, Morningstar, Skyworks Locations: Taiwan
Looney's surprise resignation came after allegations of personal relationships with company colleagues surfaced recently, prompting the company to launch an investigation. That followed allegations the board investigated in May 2022 relating to personal relationships with company employees. During that review, Looney disclosed "a small number of historical relationships with colleagues prior to becoming CEO." Looney informed BP's board on Tuesday that he did not fully disclose details of all relationships, prompting his resignation. BP shares ended up 1% before the FT earlier reported his resignation after trading closed in London.
Persons: Bernard Looney, Amr Abdallah Dalsh, Murray Auchincloss, Looney, Looney's, BP's, Bob Dudley, Anirudh, Krishna Chandra Eluri, Marguerita Choy Organizations: BP, Egypt's, Petroleum, REUTERS, BP Auchincloss, Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Morningstar, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Cairo, Egypt, London, New York, COVID, Russia, Ukraine, Bengaluru, Shadia
July 24 (Reuters) - Threads, Meta Platform's (META.O) broadside to Twitter, is seen by some advertisers as less contentious and more predictable than Elon Musk's platform, and analysts say it could lure away marketing budgets - eventually. But analysts have forecast lofty ad spending targets - with the caveat that they depend on whether users stick on. If the app manages to retain users, Threads could achieve $5 billion in annual ad revenue, equaling what Twitter earned in 2021, Bernstein said in a note on July 18. Morningstar analysts said on July 11 that Threads could add between $2 billion and $3 billion to Meta's revenue every year between 2024 and 2027. Evercore ISI analysts estimated on July 9 that Threads could generate $8 billion in annual revenue by 2025, a small portion of the $156 billion revenue analysts expect for Meta that year, according to Refinitiv.
Persons: Musk, Bernstein, Taylor Michelle Gerard, Matt Yanofsky, Meta, Andrew La Fond, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Liz Bartges, Akash Sriram, Samrhitha, Sheila Dang, Sayantani Ghosh, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Elon Musk's, Morningstar, Evercore, Meta, Facebook, Blue Hour, influencers, Twitter, Nike, Reuters, FerebeeLane, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru, Dallas
Netflix tumbles as revenue hit overshadows subscriber jump
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Analysts said while there was some progress in these ventures, it was still too early to dub them a success. Smartphone with Netflix logo is placed on a keyboard in this illustration taken April 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Reuters GraphicsThe company reported second-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, shy of analysts' forecasts of $8.3 billion. Third-quarter revenue is estimated to hit $8.5 billion, falling short of estimates of $8.7 billion. "Revenue growth has not hit double digits since the fourth quarter of 2021 despite price hikes and revenue enhancement initiatives like paid sharing and the introduction of ad-supported tiers," Morningstar analysts wrote in a note.
Persons: Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Dado Ruvic, Samrhitha, Nivedita Organizations: Netflix, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
Americans aren't spending like they used to
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
You can also download the app to get notifications about our biggest markets stories. Spending has remained elevated even through the Fed's 10 straight rate hikes, but warning signs of a change have started to surface. That's going to further take the wind out of Americans' brisk spending over the last few years. From David Rosenberg to Rob Arnott, experts are sharing what the disruptive technology can mean for the economy, jobs, and stock market. The biggest companies and banks can't agree on where the stock market is heading next.
Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, You'll, let's, Derek Davis, Patek Pilippe, Audemars, Jerome Powell, Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley, Andy Ryan, Pablo Hernández de Cos, David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Stocks, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Big Apple, Portland Portland Press, Getty, Rolex, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of Spain, Fed, Wall Street, Royal, Nvidia, Tesla, Morningstar Locations: Madrid, Phoenix, Miami, Royal Caribbean, New York, London
An exchange traded fund built on an investing strategy popularized by Warren Buffett is proving its worth once again in 2023. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) has a total return of more than 23% year to date, according to FactSet, handily beating the S & P 500 and enhancing an already stellar long-term track record. MOAT 5Y mountain The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has been a long-term outperformer. The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and iShares Core S & P 500 ETF (IVV) were the top two funds of the week, each bringing in more than $2 billion. Several large short-term bond funds saw outflows this week, including Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) .
Persons: Warren Buffett, FactSet, Brandon Rakszawski, Rakszawski, It's Organizations: Morningstar, Adobe, Bond, Federal Locations: VanEck, outflows
Warren Buffett – he invests just like us!
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - “Do as I say, not as I do” sounds like the kind of pithy thing Warren Buffett might say to his adoring throngs. The conglomerate was an investor for a dozen years, until Buffett got spooked by Freddie Mac’s overly rosy earnings growth projections. The $1.3 billion stake it finished accumulating in 1994 was worth $25 billion last month. A $13 billion stake in IBM (IBM.N) came and went, as did $8 billion of JPMorgan (JPM.N) and almost $3 billion of biopharmaceutical company AbbVie (ABBV.N). Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and CEO, said that geopolitical tensions contributed to the decision to sell most of the $4.1 billion TSMC stake just a few months after buying it, the Nikkei reported on April 11.
Persons: Warren Buffett, can’t, There’s, Buffett, Freddie Mac, Freddie Mac’s, Coke, Benjamin Moore, TSMC, , Wells, ” Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, John Foley, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Berkshire Hathaway, Home Loan Mortgage, U.S ., Berkshire, BNSF, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Buffett, ” Morningstar, Treasury, New York Stock Exchange, American Express, IBM, JPMorgan, Activision, Occidental Petroleum, Paramount Global, Oracle, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Berkshire, U.S, TSMC . Berkshire, Japan, Taiwan, Omaha, China
HONG KONG, June 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shein is threading the world’s trickiest geopolitical needle. But rising American pressure is forcing it to tweak its business model right as it tries to list there. Last year, its top line surged 46% to $23 billion, per the Wall Street Journal, surpassing $22 billion at H&M and outpacing the 18% growth at Inditex. A Boston Consulting Group report notes that this model allows Shein to keep inventory turnover at just 40 days. That will be expensive; the company's net profit margin was a razor-thin 3.5% last year, according to the Wall Street Journal, far below bricks and mortar rival Inditex's 13%.
Persons: Shein, Bernstein, Chris Xu, Xu, Mubadala, Pete Sweeney, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, U.S ., Rivals, Street, Financial Times, Boston Consulting, Morningstar, Securities and Exchange Commission, Wall Street, , Singapore, Sequoia Capital, General Atlantic, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Zara, China, Inditex, Guangdong, U.S, Xinjiang, Nanjing, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, India
Blackstone is in talks to help regional banks with lending
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - Blackstone Inc (BX.N), the biggest manager of private equity and real estate assets, said on Thursday it was discussing partnerships with U.S. regional banks to help them with constraints in areas such as car loans and home improvement financing. "As regional banks experienced outflows of deposits, we are seeing real-time opportunities to partner with them at scale," Blackstone President Jonathan Gray said on the firm's first-quarter earnings call. "The regional banks generally play a very large role in home improvement loans, auto loans and equipment finance. He did not identify the banks Blackstone is speaking to. The firm has shifted its focus in real estate to resilient sectors such as logistics and rental housing.
In a recent note, Morningstar shared its top 33 undervalued stocks to buy for the second quarter. While the near term may look difficult for investors, Sekera believes that these headwinds will force the Federal Reserve to pump the brakes on its rate-hiking program sooner rather than later. Valuations-wise, small-cap firms remain the cheapest, while mid-cap and large-cap stocks respectively remain just below and above market average. In a separate note, Morningstar analysts listed their top 33 undervalued stocks for the second quarter of 2023. The full list of names is below, along with each company's ticker, sector, market capitalization, and price versus fair value estimate.
Buying Pioneer would be iffy use of Exxon capital
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
And boss Darren Woods is on track to deliver nearly $10 billion of quarterly net profit with only $11 billion of net debt. All told, Pioneer is expected by analysts to generate about $7.4 billion of operating profit this year. Assume tight-fisted Exxon could manage the same proportion at Pioneer, and it would lead to some $1.8 billion of savings. Pioneer produced about 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022. The company expects total production to rise to 670,000 to 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent in 2023.
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